Fantasy Football Writers With Hair

Marshawn Lynch gets three-game suspension

2009-04-12T10:59:00.000-07:00

For the second year in a row, Marshawn Lynch's legal trouble may have resulted in a drop in his fantasy value. Last year, Lynch was reportedly going to be suspended for his hit-and-run accident last year, but was exonerated after it turned out the victim did not suffer serious injuries.

This year, however, Lynch was actually suspended for three games for pleading guilty to misdemeanor weapon charges.

That said, there's still a chance Lynch's suspension is reduced on appeal; Brandon Marshall's three-game suspension was reduced to one game prior to the 2008 season, and Marshall arguably had a worse criminal record than Lynch.

Lynch had over 1,300 total yards with nine touchdowns in 15 games last year and finished as the No. 15 running back; he would've been No. 21 if he missed three games. Chances are Lynch may only miss one game of the season, and considering he also missed a game last year, there's no reason why his value drop so much.

Lynch had just 251 rush attempts—almost five attempts per game less than in his first season—last year, but his yards per attempt increased by about a fifth of a yard from his rookie season to his sophomore season. You can argue that Lynch will have an increase in carries—with Terrell Owens now with the Bills, team will have to prepare for the passing attack as well as the rush, leaving more opportunities for Buffalo to surprise their opponents; but on the flip side, you can argue his carries will decrease—with Terrell Owens now with the Bills, Buffalo will be passing much more than last year.

Personally, I think Lynch's attempts per game will be more near his 2008 average (16.7 per game) than his 2007 average (21.5 per game).

In his rookie season, Lynch had just 18 receptions for 184 yards, but he had almost 30 more catches and 120 yards last year. Look for Lynch's role in the passing game to decline next year, as Terrell Owens should catch 80 balls, and there's not enough to go around for both of them.

Because of the immense upside and chance of a reduced suspension, Lynch is right around No. 15 in my running back rankings.

In the case that Lynch is out for significant time, Fred Jackson becomes a top-20 back in the games Lynch misses. In Week 17, when Lynch was out due to injury, Jackson stepped in and had 136 yards on 27 carries, more than five yards per carry. And in the previous two games, Jackson had a combined 17 carries for 74 yards, plus nine receptions for 94 yards and a total of two touchdowns. Jackson had double digit fantasy points in each of those final three weeks.

Even if Lynch is suspended just for Week One, Jackson provides a safe flex option week-in, week-out, good for fifty or sixty total yards each week. Worst case scenario, Jackson is a top-35 running back. He's a must-have handcuff for all Lynch owners and a solid No. 3 or 4 running back for all other owners.

We once hit a 74 at Augusta National. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com + Twitter.com/FFWWH

Combine Winners and Losers

2009-03-01T10:02:00.000-08:00

Christmas time for NFL Scouts, the 2009 NFL Combine, took place this past week as it does annually in Indianapolis. Overrated, boring, unimportant--call it what you will, this is a crucial point for NFL prospects trying to prove their worth. As always, there are winners and losers, and this year was no different.

Winners

• Pat White/QB WVU: While there are still concerns about White's transition to the pros, he certainly helped his cause at the Combine this past weekend. As most scouts assumed, White ran the fastest 40 time of all quarterbacks, a very impressive 4.49. That was faster than guys like Malcolm Jenkins and Kenny Britt. White reportedly threw the ball very well in his workout drills. The former WVU star has a good shot to go in the late-second to early-third round.

• Andre Brown/RB NC State: While guys like Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno failed to impress, Brown stepped up to the plate. A pretty good sized back, coming in at 6'0" 224 pounds, he ran a 4.49 40, fourth-best of all running backs. The fact that he doesn't have a lot of wear and tear can also be viewed as appealing to scouts; Brown has just under 500 carries in his college career. At this point, he should go in round three.

• Darrius Heyward-Bey/WR Maryland: Probably the biggest winner of the event, Bey wowed most when he ran a blistering 40 time, a 4.3 flat. If it were up to me, I'd approach Bey with caution. He has the speed, but his route-running and hands are questionable. In theory, he could go as high as No. 7 to the Raiders--Al Davis loves burners--but a mid-to-late first round grade is more likely.

• Tiquan Underwood/WR Rutgers: Another WR who flashed his speed, Underwood ran a 4.41 40. He continued to show his athleticism by posting a 41'5" vertical and 10'9" in the broad jump, and he ran a 6.62 in the three-cone shuttle. Those results were second, tied for first, and first, respectively.

• Jared Cook/TE South Carolina: Scouting reports anointed him as an athletic receiving tight end, and he only fueled those reports at the Combine. Running a 4.50, extremely fast for a tight end, he also put up a 41-inch vertical and a 10'3" broad jump. Cook is making a strong case for being picked over Brandon Pettigrew.

• Jason Smith/OT Baylor: Athletic enough to play left tackle, he also showed strength by repping 225 pounds 33 times. The fact that Andre Smith's Combine weekend was a total debacle helped Smith as well. He has a legitimate shot to go No. 1 overall.

• Vontae Davis/CB Illinois: It's not so much that he did spectacular, rather, his stock was helped by others doing worse. Don't get me wrong, Davis ran a respectable 40 time (4.49) but his main competitor to be the first corner off the board, Malcolm Jenkins out of OSU, only ran a 4.55 and could be drafted as a safety.

Losers:

• Chris Wells and Knowshown Moreno/RB: Both fell into similar trouble: poor 40 times. Wells ran a 4.59, and even though he is a big back, he was expected to run in the 4.4's. Moreno wasn't expected to run as fast, but turned in a pretty poor time (4.6 flat). They will still be first-round picks, but better times at their Pro Days would be a big help.

• Brandon Pettigrew/TE Oklahoma St: He isn't going to be a huge receiving threat, but a 4.85 40 always hurts for the No. 1 tight end on the board. As mentioned earlier, Jared Cook quickly closed the gap between him.

• Andre Smith/OT Alabama: Arguably the biggest loser, Smith did not even workout, which usually isn't a big deal for a top prospect--provided you tell someone that you're not going to workout and plan to leave. Oops. Smith disappeared Saturday and his whereabouts were unknown for awhile. Smith went home to train with his personal trainer, saying that he was not prepared for the Combine. He had nearly two months to prepare; this certainly doesn't help his work ethic and maturity issues. From a possible top pick, he's more likely to go in the mid-first round.

• Larry English/DE Northern Illinois: His stock was on the rise before the Combine, but he struggled at Indy. Projected to be a 3-4 OLB, he ran a very slow 4.90. That won't cut it at OLB. He also weighed in at 6'2" 255 and only did 24 reps on the bench press, making him a little small and a little weak to stay as a 4-3 DE. English fits the mold of a tweener.

• Clint Sintim/OLB Virginia: I was a big fan of Sintim coming into the Combine. I loved his pass rushing ability (20 total sacks his junior and senior year), and I still do, but a 4.8 40 time isn't going to help his cause. His stock just dipped a round or two.

• Malcolm Jenkins/CB Ohio St.: As I said previously, Jenkins was banking on having to run well at the Combine in order to keep his stock up. Unfourtunately for him, that didn't happen. Jenkins ran a 4.55. Some say he is a potential candidate to play safety in the NFL because of this questionable speed. If that proves to be the case, Jenkins could fall to the late-first round.

Fred Taylor Released, Let the Maurice Jones-Drew Lovefest Begin

2009-02-17T08:03:00.000-08:00

For the first time in his 11 year career, long-time Jacksonville running back Fred Taylor will not be playing for the Jaguars next season due to something other than an injury. After reportedly offering to take a pay cut in order to stay with his long time employers, the 33-year-old Taylor, who was due to make six-million dollars in base salary in 2009, was released Monday and is now a free agent. The news shouldn't come as a surprise in this time of economic recession, which has displayed fairly transparently that sub-par things simply can not survive no matter how cheap or local they are.

However, Taylor has said that he is not at all ready to retire as the Jacksonville organization asked of him, but is "excited" to enter free agency for the first time in his NFL career.

Taylor did have 654 total yards on 159 touches last season and could very conceivably be brought in to help out a team looking for veteran leadership in a backfield that already has an established starting tailback. And a good team doctor.

This news more probably will have a greater impact on the team Taylor is leaving, the Jacksonville Jaguars, which now seems to be fully committed to the small, quick, powerful, and very hyphenated 23-year-old Maurice Jones-Drew. Which basically gives every fantasy football playing human daydream fodder for the rest of the off season.

Now being in a position to shoulder the full load of backfield touches, Jones-Drew, who had 1,389 yards and 14 touchdowns on 259 rushes and receptions in his third NFL season in 2008, will most likely be the sexiest player on 2009 draft boards.

Make sure to watch the Jaguars for any moves they make to bring in a cheaper option at backup RB and the 32,723 coming probations of MoJo's career yards per carry rate over some number defined as a full Jacksonville running back workload.

Florida Times Union

Super Bowl XLIII Preview: Has It Reached Midnight for Cinderella?

2009-01-30T14:24:00.000-08:00

Apparently, only one of us believes so.

And it's not whom you may think.

The 12-7 Arizona Cardinals are seven-point dogs to the 14-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, owners of the No. 1-ranked defense on the year. After two weeks of wait, the teams are 48 hours away from kickoff in Tampa Bay.

Vegas bookies are predicting a final score of 27-20 in favor of the Steelers, based on the spread and over/under. We like the—well, just read on to see our picks.

Jump To...

• Zach Fein

• Tosten Burks

• Gage Arnold

• Alex Kozora

Zach Fein

For Arizona, the key will be to maintain a quick-strike offense. On their first possession, Arizona must play as if they are in a two-minute offense, throwing quick, 10-yard passes (with runs mixed in). The Cardinals must set an up-tempo pace. This will make the Steelers unable to put pressure on Warner, knowing that he’d get the ball off before a blitzer arrives.

They know that the Steelers cannot compete with them on the offensive side of the ball, and Arizona must hope for a shootout—that is their only chance of competing in this game. If it turns into an old-school, time-of-possession battle that is the Steelers’ specialty, Arizona can say goodbye to their Super Bowl chances.

Kurt Warner was the best quarterback when facing the blitz all year (a passer rating of 103.8 on 197 attempts)—if the Steelers go to their blitz-happy ways, Warner will destroy them. Instead, Pittsburgh must drop back into coverage more often than not and be aware of when to and from where to blitz.

One way to take care of this is to let Troy Polamalu take care of the short, middle routes and checkdowns. This way, Polamalu will be near the line on each and every play, so his distance to Warner will not be as much as if he were in his normal position. When he is rushing the passer, Pittsburgh can single-cover Larry Fitzgerald and put another man in the middle or in position to cover the running back.

In this defensive formation, Warner will not have time to throw to Fitzgerald, who is single-covered, and must throw to Anquan Boldin in the middle or Tim Hightower or Edgerrin James in the flat, and each of them will be covered by the man taking over for Polamalu. Using Polamalu as bait for Warner to throw to the flat could provide Pittsburgh with key stops, especially if the Cardinals are faced with third-and-short.

But in my opinion, it won't be enough. Arizona should control the tempo of the game and make the score go into the 30s. The Steelers will not be able to stop Larry Fitzgerald, who will once again gain over 100 yards receiving.

In the end, the final scoreboard will read 31-27, Arizona.

Tosten Burks

To start, let me establish that I don't really have a connection to either team in this game.I have a great uncle who farms alfalfa in Yuma. That's the closest I am to either franchise. I'll be cheering for the 7-0 box and Danica Patrick GoDaddy commercials.

But also the Arizona Cardinals. I like offense. I like underdogs. I like Edgerrin James's mini-comeback mini-story. And hey, Yuma's dry heat is pretty nice on winter nights.

And there's the reason I'm picking Arizona. Because I'm rooting for them. And I don't want to be bummed when the team I like wins because I picked against them on a fantasy football blog. That's just perplexing, paradoxical poop.

I like the Cards, and am going to be cheering for the cards, so I'm picking the Cards. I have no idea what affect Larry Fitzgerald's match up against the Pittsburgh secondary will have on the outcome or an estimate as to the impact of Ben Roethlisberger's injury situation, or how much of a factor Arizona being an underdog yet again will be. But I like Arizona.

For Yuma. Cards win.

Gage Arnold

As the Super Bowl is upon us again this year, let's recap to see how we reached this point. The Steelers faced the top-ranked schedule, and they rose to the challenge and gave NFL fans something to root for—another typical Steelers team: strong defense, smart signal caller, and finally a heavy dose of the running game. That has essentially led the Men of Steel to their route so far.

I really see the Steelers' defense being the MVP of this game. If their top ranked unit can step up in the crunch time and do what they have basically done all year, then I think the Steelers sit completely in the driver's seat. If the defense gets out to a fast start then expect a heavy dose of Willie Parker mixed in with a few Ben Roethlisberger play-action passes across the middle. So essentially, the defense decides the Steelers fate.

Now, as we backtrack, I have to tell you that the NFC West was completely horrid. I mean, Arizona winning with the division with a three-game lead at 9-7? That record along proves how, eh, stunningly awful these teams in their conference were. But this year proved to be the resurgence of Kurt Warner. The "old man" came out firing and finished as a top-five quarterback. Anquan Boldin, as well as Larry Fitzgerald, stepped up their games even more and showed they were the best receiver tandem in the league.

The Cards' defense was not too terribly bad either. They ranked in the middle of the pack in total defense, but many studs stepped up, like rookie Dominique Rodgers Cromartie, Darnell Dockett, and Karlos Dansby. The key here lies in the Cardinals passing game: If they are in fact able to control the airways and score quickly, then I see a huge upset in the making in Tampa on Sunday. If this does happen I would expect to see a heavy dose of Edgerrin James as well. Offense is the key here, folks.

My final verdict: I am going to side with the Pittsburgh Steelers to take home the Super Bowl this season in a 28-13 score. I think the Cardinals will remain in this game early, but I think that the Steelers are just too strong of a defensive unit to be beaten, and I feel that they will control the passing game and force Arizona to win it on the ground, which they have proven they struggle doing. Expect a good game, though, and it should remain fairly even throughout with Pittsburgh taking a long drive for a score in the final minutes to solidify themselves as champions.

Alex Kozora (the Steelers fan)

The gameplans for both teams shouldn't change drastically. Both teams have to treat this like any other game to the best of their abilities—your gameplan and style of play is what got you to this point. Having said that, those of us watching the Super Bowl can expect two totally different gameplans.

Arizona's pass offense is the staple of the team. That won't be any different here. Create as many mismatches as possible, and take what the defense gives you. The Steelers' cornerbacks usually play with a cushion; a lot of slants and crossing routes is the best counter. However, they can't stray from the running game. Balance is key, they can't become one-dimensional against a team like the Steelers. Stay committed; for Arizona, they're not expecting Edge to gain 150 yards. That's just plain unrealistic against the best run defense in the league. The key is to run the ball 25-30 times and make the defense respect the running game, forcing them to cheat up from time to time. When that happens, you can then stretch the field with your all-stars like Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin.

While it was just about attempts for the Cardinals' rushing attack, it's a different case for the Steelers. They want to run the ball a lot, but they also want success. The running game sets up the pass, unlike Arizona, which is the other way around. Willie Parker has to be successful in order for Pittsburgh to win. In regards to the passing game, the key is protecting Ben. Nothings changed in that department. Give him time, and he'll make plays. Granted, that's easier said than done....

Putting my Steelers bias aside the best I can, I'm going with the underdog, Arizona. They've shown a commitment to the running game in the postseason. Thirty-seven percent of the Cardinals' first downs have come from the running game in the postseason, comparing that to just a 24 percent clip in the regular season. Their attempts and yards have gone up too, from 21 carries and 74 yards per game to 33 carries and 111 yards per game in the postseason. I can't see the Steelers being able to slow down that Cardinals' offense; blitzing helps, but the best counter for a blitzing defense is a QB with a quick release. Arizona has that in Kurt Warner. Just look at what a quarterback with a similar throwing style did against the Steelers in the regular season.

One other tidbit of information to leave you with: Pittsburgh has struggled against quality teams that run a 4-3. All of their losses have been handed down by 4-3 teams (the Eagles, Giants, Colts, and Titans). Yeah, you guessed it, 'Zona runs the 4-3.

We're Still Alive

2009-01-28T20:27:00.000-08:00

Yello. I'm just checking in to let you all four of you who would somehow be hitting up the domain of a fantasy football blog in late January know that we weren't sniped down by Bristol undercover cops or anything like that. I still have a pulse. And so do Alex and that Stat Guy. Not sure about Gage though. I don't know if he ever had one. But anyway, we haven't been neglecting this place. I swear. Just click through. I'm working on a diddy about all the coaching changes. That's taken forever because it took like 14 lunar cycles for Tampa Bay to decide that they didn't want to retain John Gruden, and that after around 1,893,247 naps since the end of the regular season, Al Davis still hasn't found any living being who wants to coach for him. [Editor's note: Tom Cable was just hired as head coach of the Raiders.] When all the sideline situations clear up, I assure you I'll drop a big analysis piece on all the changes. Also, Zach's calculator broke or something, so that's been a slight hold up for him and his normal slew of stuff. And I would guess that A-Koz has been busy planning a funeral for Joseph Addai or some crap. Nobody has any guesses as to Mr. Arnold's situation, although he said something about working two jobs (wouldn'tcha know, this site isn't a real profession) and taking intensive classes right now or some crap. Lucky for you, there's also a super secret site something coming soon. It's gonna be so cool. And new. And secret. And super. Smell ya later. (Really.)

Ed Werder's Wrong Again: T.O.'s Going Nowhere

2009-01-15T19:37:00.000-08:00

Terrell Owens is staying in Dallas. ESPN's Ed Werder reported that the Dallas Cowboys would have discussions about whether to drop star receiver T.O. "The big one [Owens] didn't get discussed yet, but I'm sure it will and real hard," said his source, after the Cowboys released Adam "Pacman" Jones. But Drew Rosenhaus, Owens' agent, refuted the speculation in a radio interview. "It's not going to happen. The reason why they got rid of Pacman is because Pacman has terrible off-the-field problems, and the guy just simply can't play anymore. He's just not that good. "Terrell's never had off-the-field problems, and he's been one of the greatest players ever. ... He's not going anywhere." T.O. has had more off-the-field problems than Rosenhaus claims, but he's right about one thing: T.O. is staying in Dallas. Werder's report is wrong on more than one account. As well as reporting that T.O. may be dropped, he said that the reason would be to easier sign star linebacker Demarcus Ware:

But Jerry Jones just last year invested a $12 million signing bonus in Owens, which means there would be salary-cap fallout. In fact, Jerry Jones has suggested that there might be enough damage that the team would find it difficult to sign NFL sack leader DeMarcus Ware to a new contract.

The Dallas Morning News then pointed out that should T.O. be dropped, he would count $680,000 more against the Cowboys' salary cap than if he were kept and paid his 2009 salary of $8.99 million. Fantasy owners, don't panic. ESPN was wrong.

Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Alex Kozora

2009-01-12T17:28:00.000-08:00

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Now, with less Tosten, Zach, and Gage. Saving the best for last. Your name: Alex Kozora But you wish to be referred to as: Alex (how orginal) You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Pinching pennies But we shouldn't hold it against you because: Better to be fiscally tight than loose. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That Chidi Iwuoma signs with a team. Why will this happen/not happen? No one has shown much interest in him yet... Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Haven't given it much thought yet, but I'll go with Josh Morgan. How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? 8th round. Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Matt Hasselbeck. Good value, but injuries are a concern. Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Darren Sproles Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? All depends on where they go, but Shonne Green really impressed me this year. Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Earnest Graham ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Andre Smith ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Chris "Beanie" Wells. Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, the Wildcat will not work for any team until it is used even less sparingly. 2. There is no way I will bail on LT. 3. Maurice Jones-Drew will be this year's Joseph Addai. 4. Brett Favre will be talked about on Sportscenter so much, ESPN will change its name to the Favre Network. 5. If Kerry Collins keeps the starting gig, then Justin Gage doesn't look so bad. 6. There will be still be multiple players who get drafted ahead of Clinton Portis. 7. ... but only 1 player who scores more points among running backs. 8. Matthew Berry will continue to be the "creepy uncle" at family reunions. 9. This is the year that I finally cut down on fantasy football leagues. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year the Packers' trading Favre and starting Rodgers was a great move. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? LT Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Moss Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Tougher than it seems, but I'll go Colston. Little more proven. Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,950 (total); 15 TDs Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,500; 30 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,100; 26 Kurt Warner's starts: 14 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,229; 8; 10 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 825; 8 (Think Greg Jennings from '07) Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: Only Chuck Norris can count that high. Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? How high will I rank Joseph Addai this year? And the answer is? Low. What question are you glad you weren't asked? Thoughts on Big Ben? Sucker! Now you have to answer. No clue. That's why I'm glad I wasn't asked.

Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Wide Reciver Top 10 Rankings

2009-01-12T15:12:00.000-08:00

More nonsensical, dumb, quickie rankings that won't be relevant for months. Wide outs this time. Early Top 10 Rankings for 2009: Wide Receivers As Alex likes to say, these are extremely preliminary, so don't hold me to them. Unless they turn out to be accurate. If they're great, then by all means hold me to them.

Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Gage Arnold

2009-01-08T18:54:00.000-08:00

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or ~~Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles~~. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident ~~loser table~~ fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Now, with less Tosten and Zach. Your name: Gage Arnold But you wish to be referred to as: Giovanni You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Gap Clothing But we shouldn't hold it against you because: It's some pretty nice stuff. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: For Lane Kiffin to make Tennessee a powerhouse in the SEC again Why will this happen/not happen? It's Tennessee football... Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Pierre Thomas How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? 3rd-4th round-ish Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Marion Barber Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Anquan Boldin, I don't see a repeat from good ol' Kurt Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? Tim Tebow Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Maurice Jones-Drew ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Sam Bradford ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Tim Tebow or Shonn Greene Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, Tim Tebow will throw for at least 2,000 yards in his rookie season. 2. There is no way that the Detroit Lions will not win one game. 3. The Houston Texans will be this year's Atlanta Falcons. 4. Brett Favre will retire, then move to Alabama, decide he doesn't belong, go back to school at Southern Miss and become the Head Football coach, only to resign after the first game and start the next 15 games of the season for the Minnesota Vikings. 5. If Michael Turner gets another 300-carry season then I don't like his fantasy outlook for the future. 6. There will be 6 players who are tight ends and will get drafted before Owen Daniels in fantasy drafts. 7. ... but only 1 player(s) who scores more points among tight ends. 8. Matthew Berry will beg to be let on the FFWWH staff only to be denied and laughed at. Poor Matt Berry. 9. This is the year that Kobe Bryant finally wins a championship without Shaq. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Calvin Johnson's domination of mankind. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Burner Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Calvin Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? DeAngelo Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 2,200; 20 Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 5,156; 37 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,356; 32 Kurt Warner's starts: 10 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,004; 6; 33 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 1,119; 3 Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: 7... teen Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Is Tim Tebow in fact Jesus? And the answer is? He may be as close as you can possibly get. What question are you glad you weren't asked? Why is Tosten Burks such a funny man? Sucker! Now you have to answer. Why, he just wakes up and is like that, must be a gift from God. Thank you Jesus for bestowing Tosten upon us.

Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Zach Fein

2009-01-07T20:48:00.000-08:00

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or ~~Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles~~. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident ~~loser table~~ fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Now, with less Tosten. Your name: Zach Fein But you wish to be referred to as: Zach You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Using stats to back your case But we shouldn't hold it against you because: Yeah, fan bias is a lot better. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That my NFL postseason predictions for the 2009 season are exactly correct. Why will this happen/not happen? I picked a Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl this year. Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Matt Hasselbeck How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? Tenth round or so, as the No. 2 on a rotating-starting-QB team. Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Matt Hasselbeck Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Chris Johnson Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? It won't be one of the two below. But who does everyone think it'll be? Beanie Wells/Knowshon Moreno Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Clinton Portis ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Matthew Stafford, though it should be Andre Smith ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Beanie Wells/Knowshon Moreno (I just had this question...) Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, Tony Romo will be a top-two quarterback for 12 weeks, until December rolls around. 2. There is no way that I will recommend a guy with a so-called "easy"fantasy playoff schedule. 3. Le'Ron McLain will be this year's Ryan Grant. 4. Brett Favre will take the same amount of time it took last year to reach a decision and ultimately retire. 5. If you draft Ben Roethlisberger as your No. 1 QB, then good luck this year. 6. There will be 22 players who are QBs that will be drafted in standard leagues. 7. ... but only 5 players who are among those 22 will finish behind Big Ben, making him the No. 17 QB in 2009. 8. Matthew Berry will never be mentioned on FFWWH with the word "funny" in the same sentence... unless that sentence is, "Matthew Berry is not funny." 9. This is the year that Chris Mortensen finally beats out Adam Schefter or Jay Glazer to a breaking news story that turns out to be correct. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Joe Flacco's playoff run to the Super Bowl. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Peyton. Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Turner Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Moss, I guess, but these guy will be drafted too early anyway Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston. Is this even a real question? Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,525; 9 (that's total yards and total TDs) Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,920; 32 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,150; 31 (he misses the first two or three games) Kurt Warner's starts: 15 3/4 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 950; 6; 8 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 860; 7 Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: 12. With the actual name "Ocho Cinco" on his jersey, his R.S. rate will ascend. Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Who's your mancrush of 2009 going to be? And the answer is? Brandon Jacobs What question are you glad you weren't asked? Do you want to answer the second-to-last question on this survey? Sucker! Now you have to answer. Nope.

Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Tosten Burks

2009-01-07T20:40:00.000-08:00

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or ~~Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles~~. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident ~~loser table~~ fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Your name: Tosten Burks But you wish to be referred to as: Emmanuel You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: McDonald's french fries But we shouldn't hold it against you because: If you do I will strike you with lightning. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That Brady Hoke will turn San Diego State into an NFL team. Why will this happen/not happen? It's San Diego State. Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Derrick Ward How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? Fourth or fifth round-ish Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Philip Rivers. I'm a Chargers fan. He'll probably turn hobo on me and suck in fantasy and suck in real life and tank every football related squad that is associated with my life. Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Thomas Jones Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? Michael Crabtree But who does everyone think it'll be? I have no idea. Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Steve Slaton ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Sam Bradford ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Beanie Wells Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, stock will go for negative dollars. 2. There is no way that I will not win the lottery. 3. FFWWH will be this year's Google. 4. Brett Favre will move to Utah and marry the 20,984 reporters that make up the main stream media. 5. If you got money and you know it, then take it out your pocket and show it and throw it. 6. There will be 13 players who get drafted before Steve Slaton in fantasy drafts. 7. ... but only 3 players who score more points at the running back position. 8. Matthew Berry will mention this site on his podcast and in an article, make a joke about its title, and give FFWWH 13,847,398,742 page views. And buy a wig. 9. This is the year that Michael Scott finally finds true love. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Skip Bayless's firing. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Ehh, myeh, fee, fii, fo, ahh, umm, eeeh... Turner. I apologize LT. It's close man. If Darren Sproles signs elsewhere, you got it in the bag. Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Johnson Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,769; 19 Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,893; 31 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 120; 0 (He pulls a Merriman, comes in Week One to prove he's tough, goes on IR to continue to recover from his injury) Kurt Warner's starts: 15 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,138; 7; 12,908 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 1241; 8 (all in one game) Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: ∞ Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Why does the title of this post sound like a cologne? "Predictions. By Tosten Burks." And the answer is? I have not a clue in my soul. What question are you glad you weren't asked? I heard there's some big news coming about this site. What is it? Sucker! Now you have to answer. Oh, you trickster. You're gonna have to wait on that one.

Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Running Back Top 10 Rankings

2009-01-06T17:13:00.000-08:00

Yep, it's been confirmed. I have no life. Here's some more rankings. In January. Early Top 10 Rankings for 2009: Running Backs

As Alex likes to say, these are extremely preliminary, so don't hold me to them. Unless they turn out to be accurate. If they're great, then by all means hold me to them.

Matt Cassel to be Franchised; What About Tom Brady?

2009-01-04T11:11:00.000-08:00

It's looking more and more likely that the New England Patriots will put the franchise tag on first-year starter Matt Cassel. The news was first reported by Mike Lombardi, then confirmed by Chris Mortensen. Placing the franchise tag would cost the Patriots $14.835 million, the average salary of the five-highest quarterbacks in the league from the prior season. The Patriots would be paying more than $29 million for two quarterbacks next year; injured backup Tom Brady has a salary of $14.6 million in 2009. With Matt Cassel franchised, the Patriots would have two options: trade him if Brady's knee heals, or keep Cassel should Brady's rehab from injury not go as planned. Teams that could become major factors in the Cassel sweepstakes include two NFC North teams, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. The Lions have already announced their intention to take a quarterback at No. 1 in the draft. Minnesota was rumored to be interested in Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb last offseason, and their poor and inconsistent quarterback play for the Vikings this year should not change that stance. In the case that Brady's knee is not fully recovered by Week One, fantasy owners would be best to avoid either New England quarterback for the time being. Both would be top-10 quarterbacks with no competition (with the edge going to Brady), but Brady would likely take over the job midway through the year if he were to recover.

Hey Rookie, Welcome to the NFL: Evaluating the Performance of Several Rookie RBs

2009-01-01T20:57:00.000-08:00

Not too often do the Dennis Quaids of the world prove to be anything more than your first pick's handcuff. 2008 was the year of the rookie running back. Over 10 rookies either started, filled in for their injured predecessor, or split the load of the carries and became fantasy relevant in a year in which many first- and second-round fantasy picks turned out to be busts. In what was called one of the greatest running back drafts ever—even proclaimed so before the draft occurred—three of the five first-round backs missed a total of 22 games this year—yet four other backs chosen in the first three rounds had over 1,000 total yards (three of which rushed for 1,200 yards), and another had 900 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tim Hightower, Tashard Choice, and Ryan Torain—the guy that sat on your bench all year as you hoped and prayed that he would recover and prosper in Denver's Russian-roulette running back slot, which came out to be true for one game until he tore his ACL and gave way for another rookie (Peyton Hillis) to succeed, I might add—all provided fantasy effectiveness for some time or another, in addition to the aforementioned group of 900- and 1,000-yard backs. Recent years such as 2006 provided other great running back draft classes, but not nearly as much as 2008, which had, among many stats, three 1,200-yard rushers (since the 1981 draft class, only two had as many as two such rushers, in 1983 and 2000) and four backs with 10 total touchdowns (only three classes since 1981 had as many as three, and none of those came after 1985). The breakout of these rookie running backs yields a good question: Will they—nay, any of them—keep this up for next year? I went to a statistical approach to answer this question. I looked at every rookie RB since 1981 that had six touches per game and 60 attempts on the year to see how their next year's stats changed from their rookie season. Since there were 249 players that had these requirements, I split them up into five groups based on their stats from their rookie year. (I had the top 50 leaders in attempts in group one, Nos. 51-100 for group two, and so on, and then did this for each stat that I was looking at.) I then found various data—the percent of the group that had their stat decline from their rookie year to the next, the average of the stat in the rookie year and the sophomore year, and the correlation for the stat from the rookie year to the next—to try and see how each group performs the next year. (Methodological note: Not every group had 50 or 49 players; if there was a tie for the last spot in a group, I moved both players to the higher group. There were 51 players in the first group for total yards, for example, because two players tied for 50th place with 1,130 yards.) Here are the results:

Attempts
	Range	Att_down?	Att-Yr1	Att-Yr2	Correl
1st group	207 - 390	64.0%	272	227	0.220
2nd group	143 - 204	56.9%	172	148	0.135
3rd group	112 - 142	60.8%	125	118	0.173
4th group	84 - 111	68.8%	97	80	0.287
5th group	61 - 83	44.0%	73	83	-0.182
Overall		59.0%	149	132	0.587

Total Yards
	Range	Yd_down?	Yd-Yr1	Yd-Yr2	Correl
1st group	1130 - 2212	64.7%	1,440	1,124	0.452
2nd group	763 - 1117	63.3%	919	823	0.276
3rd group	596 - 759	50.0%	670	688	0.180
4th group	447 - 594	64.0%	514	446	0.025
5th group	179 - 446	44.9%	356	420	0.065
Overall		57.4%	784	703	0.575

Total Touchdowns
	Range	TD_down?	TD-Yr1	TD-Yr2	Correl
1st group	10 - 20	75.9%	13.1	8.3	0.220
2nd group	7 - 9	60.5%	7.7	5.7	0.102
3rd group	4 - 6	61.5%	4.8	4.6	0.179
4th group	1 - 3	55.6%	2.1	3.1	0.181
Overall		57.4%	4.9	4.6	0.448

Fantasy Points
	Range	Pts_down?	Pts-Yr1	Pts-Yr2	Correl
1st group	154.7 - 341.2	72.0%	204.7	157.8	0.439
2nd group	105.9 - 153.7	62.0%	124.5	114.3	0.098
3rd group	79.3 - 105.5	50.0%	92.9	92.1	0.111
4th group	60.1 - 79.2	64.0%	69.1	61.0	-0.017
5th group	22.9 - 59.7	42.9%	47.3	62.4	-0.019
Overall		58.2%	108.0	97.7	0.562

Range—The range of the stat in question for each group Att_down?—The percent of players in a group that had their stat decline or stay the same the following year Att-Yr1—The average number of each stat for each group in their rookie year Att_Yr2—The average number of each stat for each group in their sophomore year Correl—The correlation of the rookie year stats and the sophomore year stats. The closer to one, the more dependent the sophomore and rookie stats are with each other, or in order words, the easier to predict that stat in the sophomore year; a negative number means that as the stat increases in the first year, it decreases in the second year. The better a rookie performs in his first year, he is more likely to decline the next year (a phenomenon called regression toward the mean). Generally, the lower the stat of a player in their rookie year, the tougher it is to get a true grasp of how they'll perform the next year.

I'll use these data to analyze the crop of 2008 rookie running backs and try and predict how they'll do in 2009. In order of how I'd rank them for 2009... Matt Forte Falls under: 1st group for attempts; 1st group for yards; 1st group for touchdowns; 1st group for fantasy points As the leading rusher and pass catcher for the Bears, Forte had almost 380 touches and more than 1,700 total yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. However, Forte gained only 3.91 yards per carry this year, which is certainly a problem for the Chicago workhorse. That said, he gained 4.19 yards per carry from Week Nine on—when first-round OT Chris Williams returned from injury—compared to his 3.42 average without Williams. Forte was incredibly consistent in 2008: He had only two games end in single-digit fantasy points, and he had a either 75 total yards or a touchdown in every game this year. His lowest amount of touches in a game was 16, twice. Forte fell under the first group for every statistic, and it seems unlikely that he'll follow up his rookie numbers with even better ones next year. Projected 2009 stats (see below): 281 attempts, 1,471 total yards, nine total touchdowns, and 203 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 3 - 6 RB; Mid-first rounder Steve Slaton Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Taking out his first career game and his four-carry game in Week 10 against the Ravens, Slaton averaged over 100 total yards and 15.6 fantasy points per game. He reached 100 yards in nine of those 14 games, and in the five without 100 yards he put up 12.5 fantasy points. Slaton was clearly helped by head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme—which Kubiak learned in his 11 years as Denver Broncos offensive coordinator—although that's not a bad thing. Slaton is in the perfect situation for him: an offense that is made for quick-footed and agile players (Slaton ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at the Combine). Slaton's 4.78 yards per carry show he can make the most of his opportunities, be it 20 carries a game or a timeshare with Ryan Moats (hey, stuff can happen). Slaton gained 100 total yards in six of his last seven games, and his success should carry over to next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 239 attempts, 1,423 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 189 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 11-15 RB; Early- to mid-second rounder Chris Johnson Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Whether it's his first or last carry, Johnson is always a threat to take it 50 yards to the house. But that's the thing—if he doesn't get a score, he doesn't perform at all. In the games in which he scored, Johnson averaged 102 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards, and on 21 touches, that's a 5.95 yards-per-touch average; in the games in which he did not score, he had 59 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards on 18 touches, a 3.89 yards-per-touch average. (Taking out the distances of his touchdown runs and catch, Johnson averaged 99 total yards on 22 touches in games in which he scored, a 4.95 yards-per-touch average.) Which is why I'm not a big fan of Johnson. Predicting touchdowns is hard as is, and even tougher is predicting the distances of his touchdowns—Johnson's touchdown lengths added a whole yard to his YPT average. Proj. 2009 stats: 224 attempts, 1,277 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 174 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 14-18 RB; Mid- to late-second rounder Kevin Smith Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 2nd group; 1st group After carrying the ball only 56 times in the first eight weeks, Smith ran the ball 61 times in his next three games. That was the story for Smith this year. Smith started out slow and almost lost his job to Rudi Johnson early on. After Week Nine, however, he picked up the pace and was a top-10 running back. He averaged 100 yards on 23 touches for 12.9 fantasy points per game from Week 10 on, a stretch that included six 85-yard games and four touchdowns. Smith's 2009 value heavily relies on the Lions' draft strategy. Will they take OT Andre Smith first overall, or Sam Bradford? Will they stock up the offensive line, or work on the defense? As it stands now, Smith is a reliable top-20 back with high upside. From Week Five on, Smith had at least six fantasy points in every game except one, so you know you can trust him week in, week out. Proj. 2009 stats: 214 attempts, 1,082 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 145 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 18-23 RB; Late third-rounder Jonathan Stewart Falls under: 2nd group; 2nd group; 1st group; 2nd group As long as DeAngelo Williams is there, Stewart won't get more than 15 carries a game. Of course, that's not good for his fantasy value. Like Johnson, Stewart's value is based on his touchdown scoring. Stewart's per-game line in the eight games where he didn't score: 8.5 attempts, 34 rushing yards, and five receiving yards. In the other eight games where he did score, he's averaging 14.4 attempts for 71 rushing yards. Stewart doesn't get carries and is only worth a shot if he gets a touchdown, which is 50 percent of the time. He's not a safe bet for next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 169 attempts, 824 total yards, seven touchdowns, 141 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 24-28 RB; Late fourth-rounder Darren McFadden Falls under: 3rd group; 2nd group; 3rd group; 3rd group Injuries caught up with McFadden and ruined his rookie season. He looked spectacular at times (see his Week Two 164-yard performance) and downright ugly at others (one carry for no yards in Week 14). Justin Fargas stole from his opportunities, as he averaged 17 carries in the last eight weeks of the year, which led to McFadden's averaging just seven carries in that time frame. Fargas signed a three-year contract last February, so he won't be gone for another two years, and Michael Bush looked great in the last week of the season with both Fargas and McFadden injured. It's a loaded backfield in Oakland, and only time will tell who will emerge as the No. 1 back. Proj. 2009 stats: 109 attempts, 732 total yards, four touchdowns, 102 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 26-30 RB; Mid-fifth-rounder Rashard Mendenhall Falls under: n/a Although he had no carries in two of his four games, Mendenhall had nine and 10 carries in his other two games and was on his way to becoming a good flex play before suffering a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football. Willie Parker signed a four-year deal in 2006, meaning next year may be his last in Pittsburgh. Owners in dynasty and keeper leagues may want to hold on to Mendenhall in case Parker does in fact leave. Rashard would be a top-20 back if he got the load of the carries in Pittsburgh. Proj stats in 2009: N/A. Mendenhall had less than 60 carries. Where I'd rank him in 2009: No. 28-31 RB; Late-fifth, early-sixth rounder Tim Hightower Falls under: 2nd group; 3rd group; 1st group; 2nd group Hightower started the year with seven touchdowns in his first eight games, including his first career 100-yard game at the end of that stretch. And then he crumbled right before our eyes. He did run the ball nine times a game from Week 10 on—but, on the other hand, gained only 20 yards with those carries. Hightower isn't going to be fantasy relevant at all next year—even 15 carries a game will only result in, what, 45 yards? Proj. 2009 stats: 132 attempts, 638 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 117 fantasy points Where I'd rank him for 2009: No. 30-33 RB; Early-sixth rounder Tashard Choice Falls under: 4th group; 3rd group; 4th group; 4th group Felix Jones Falls under: none; 5th group; 4th group; 5th group So you know how Choice finished the year: 20 touches, 122 total yards, and 15.2 fantasy points per game in his last four, in which he scored two touchdowns. And you know how Jones started the year: six touches, 51 total yards, and 8.7 fantasy points per game in his first five, which includes a zero-rush, zero-catch game in Week Four. But with Marion Barber in the backfield, will either back get enough touches to be worth at least a flex play in standard leagues? Yes—Jones will. The Cowboys should have their first-rounder Jones get the majority of the carries after Barber, with Choice demoted to injury insurance. If Jones gets seven or eight carries a game, he should gain 60 or so yards, as he had more than nine yards per carry in his first five games this year. Proj. 2009 stats for Choice: 97 attempts, 666 total yards, three touchdowns, and 72 fantasy points Proj. 2009 stats for Jones: N/A. Jones didn't reach 60 carries. Where I'd rank Choice for 2009: No. 45-50 RB; Late-10th rounder Where I'd rank Jones for 2009: No. 35-40 RB; Early-ninth rounder

How are 2009 stats projected? I used the data in the table and the player's 2008 stats to try and project their 2009 stats. I'll use Matt Forte as an example. Forte fell under the first group for each stat. He had 315 attempts in 2008. The players in the first group in attempts had their attempts change by 83.3 percent (227 divided by 272 in the table), and 64 percent had their attempts go down. Multiply these two numbers by 315, and you get 168. Then multiply 315 by 36 percent (100 percent minus 64 percent), which is 113. Add the two numbers (113 and 168) and you get 281. We are currently getting e-mail from one guy. We would love if you could up that number significantly. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Quarterback Top 10 Rankings

2009-01-01T20:51:00.001-08:00

Yes, I have a life. ... Well kinda. Dumb stuff after the leap. Early Top 10 Rankings For 2009: Quarterbacks

Our first bit of fan mail ever, brace yourself

2008-12-31T18:31:00.001-08:00

Hey, check this out, fellas, one of you actually e-mailed us. Not to ask a question, mind you. Not to wish us Happy New Year either. No, all this noble follower wanted to do was kiss our feet. And creep us out. Pay attention.

I know there are 4 of you guys, but i'm looking for Chidi29 from the ESPN boards. I just want to thank you guys all for the great site/blog and for helping other people win there championships. But the real reason why i'm writing is to explain what Chidi did was a brave move, and it turned my season around. Before the season, Alex (think thats his name) would not stop talking about how much he HATED ADDAI. So I listened to him, and avoided addai with the dreaded 5th pick I had. You saved me there, thanks again! Alex, i'm "will to win" from the ESPN boards. You should hook me up with your AIM, Yahoo, or MSN!! Great call on Addai! PS : I still have my mancrush on you!"

That was really, really weird. And totally awesome. And for the record, that was the first email all year. You tards, read the sidebar. The email address has been there all year. And at the bottom of every post, paired with cute little one-liners. We want to talk fantasy football with you guys. We'll be here all off season. Hit us up. Happy New Year. Heck yes we get fan mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Weekend Recap: The Entire Season Version

2008-12-29T13:04:00.000-08:00

High fives all around fellas. Everyone's made it through another season in which Reggie Bush did not turn out to be Moses without drowning oneself. Rookie running backs proved to be the new pink, Matt Cassel and Chad Pennington proved to be more than joke butts, and some guy named Roddy proved to be someone who can start a conversation with something other than, "Yes, Roddy is my real name." To recap it all... - Drew Brees came 16 yards short of breaking Dan Marino's record for passing yards in a season. He still tossed the ball a little less than 2.9 miles in 2008 and has cemented himself as an elite fantasy quarterback. - Youngens Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, and Aaron Rogers also jumped into that class with breakout seasons this year. - Matt Ryan made Atlanta forget about Michael Vick. And for those who haven't yet forgotten Chris Chandler, he made them forget about Chris Chandler, too. - Tyler Thigpen and Matt Cassel became relevant. - Chad Pennington made Brett Favre and the Jets look like retards. - Something happened to Tom Brady, I think,. - Although his Steelers grabbed the No. 2 seed in the AFC, Ben Roethlisberger was a huge dissapointment. - The top of the mountain at running back looks completely different from last year, due to huge seasons by DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, and Michael Turner. - Adrian Peterson is still good. - A rookie running back class led by top-10ers Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson made Brett Favre and the Jets look like Stephen Hawking compared to American males who had a crush on Darren McFadden. - LaDainian Tomlinson was not God this year, but still had 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns. - Steven Jackson and Brandon Jacobs got banged up again. - Calvin Johnson, Roddy White, and Antonio Bryant broke out. - While it wasn't unreasonable, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss were both expected to finish one and two atop the wide receiver ranks. They didn't. Neither were top five. - Unknowns Lance Moore and Eddie Royal along with late bloomers Vincent Jackson and Bernard Berrian were also very good. - A lot of people would like to shoot Braylon Edwards, Chad Johnson, and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. - Someone actually did shoot Plaxico Burress. Himself. - Aside from one guy, Tony Gonzalez, the tight end position was a crapshoot. As the playoffs and offseason rages, we here at this site will review, break down, and chatter about the biggest topics, questions, and issues of the 2008 season and we will eventually discuss free agent signings, coaching changes, and other possibly news worthy NFL stuff as well. Check back often. Happy playoffin'.

Keeping up with the Bones'

2008-12-27T23:22:00.000-08:00

Good things come to those who wait. And after a mere sixteen weeks, we present you with "Keeping up with the Boneses," an article that will discuss what players are likely to play, which ones aren't, and which ones you'll be scrambling to find information on Sunday morning. Likely to play (Probable) -Derrick Mason/WR Baltimore -Muhsin Muhammad/WR Carolina -Joshua Cribbs/WR Baltimore -Jason Witten/TE Dallas -Eddie Royal/WR Denver -Maurice Jones-Drew/RB Jacksonville -Brandon Jacobs/RB Giants -Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery/WR Jets Game-time Decision (Questionable) -Anquan Boldin/WR Arizona -Ray Rice/RB Baltimore -Marshawn Lynch/RB Buffalo -Marion Barber/Dallas -Bernard Berrian/WR Minnesota -Pierre Thomas/RB New Orleans -Frank Gore/RB San Francisco Unlikely to play (Doubtful) -Chad Johnson/WR Cincinnati -Kellen Winslow Jr/Cleveland -Kevin Boss/TE Giants -LenDale White/Tennessee Out (Not going to play) -Carson Palmer/QB Cincinnati -Dominic Rhodes/RB Indy -Jeremy Shockey/TE New Orleans -Matt Hasselbeck/QB Seattle

Running the Wire

2008-12-24T17:37:00.000-08:00

Heading into Week 17 I'm assuming that the majority of your seasons have either already ended unsuccessfully due to Marion Barber's decision to jump off a cliff or successfully due to dumb luck. But then there's the idiots who set up their leagues to last all 17 weeks. And you bums are probably freaking out trying to find a quarterback on waivers to fill in for Peyton Manning who will sit this weekend which is totally predictable and happens every year and is similar to benchings that occur throughout the league during the last week of the season and are the reason why you don't make your leagues last 17 weeks. Well, because you're idiotic, I'm not going to reveal wire wonders. You don't deserve help. Instead, I'm going to help out those who have suffered all year through NFL hobos dropping bust seasons for the Americans who spent 29,384 hours researching and deciding to draft said hobos. For the last Running the Wire of the year, I tell you whom to drop. It's the spirit of giving after all. Might as well give back the waiver wire the soap on a rope crap that deserve to be there. It'll make you feel good to let these guys go, I know it. Merry Christmas. [Ed's note: This is not the end of the post. There's a big space that is of no use; click the "Keep going..." below.] Gold Wire Drops Chad Ocho Cinco WR/Cincinnati Bengals—He should have changed his name to Chad Cero. He's worth nothing. For the future, don't even draft him until the Ocho Cincoth round. Carson Palmer QB/Cincinnati Bengals—Don't want Chadwick to get lonely on the wire. Actually I kind of do. Joseph Addai RB/Indianapolis Colts—Congratulations, Alex. Congrats. Braylon Edwards WR/Cleveland Browns—He only came 14 touchdowns short of winning that bet with Michael Phelps. So there's that. Gold Wire Drops Edgerrin James RB/Arizona Cardinals—Your one 100-yard game this season was much appreciated. Get a haircut. Derek Anderson QB/Cleveland Browns—More proof that money isn't everything. Actually this is proof that money is nothing. Absolutely nothing. Darren McFadden RB/Oakland Raiders—Of course in a season that sees the greatest class of rookie running backs in the history of the world emerge, the back who was drafted the highest would not be part of the emergence. I blame Art Shell. Willis McGahee RB/Baltimore Ravens—You couldn't secure the starting job from a rookie and a 260 pound fullback? Really? More Gold Wire Drops Plaxico Burress WR/New York Giants—Is it wrong to feel the urge to shoot someone who just got shot? Torry Holt WR/St. Louis Rams—This one kind of makes me sad. Jamal Lewis RB/Cleveland Browns—You weigh 245 pounds! Four touchdowns? Willie Parker RB/Pittsburgh Steelers—Well, I enjoyed the first two weeks... We'll be coming over later to sing Christmas Carols. Get some cocoa ready or something. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Weekend Recap: Week 16

2008-12-22T17:15:00.000-08:00

The end is near. Time flies by if you're winning. If only the same can be said for losing; it must feel like an eternity for the Detroit Lions. However you want to put it, we're now entering the last week of the fantasy football season. This week and next are still worth taking a peek at, even if your fantasy season is over. Backups and players with high potential will get extra playing time if they're on a team that can do so (i.e. resting starters for playoffs or struggling teams trying to get a jump on next year). Sleepers can be found or at the very least, slightly unearthed. Pierre Thomas made an impression on coaches Week 17 of last year, and now, some owners could win their league because of this guy. Like I said, the end is near, but it isn't here. Stay focused. - 'Twas the week before 17, and all through the forums, not a poster was exclaiming, not even the biggest Jacksonville fan: Has Dennis Northcutt's recent performance the past two weeks gone utterly unnoticed? (Don't worry, I wouldn't dare attempt to write a book.) Against two respectable pass defenses in Green Bay and Indy, he's posted at least five receptions, 100 yards, and a score. Baltimore's defense is tough, but with Matt Jones still out, Northcutt seems to be the main man in Jacksonville. - Cedric Benson's carries and yards have each increased the past four weeks, capping off yesterday with 38 carries for 171 yards. Another 38-carry game is unrealistic—the wind at Cleveland yesterday made passing awful—but with a decent matchup against the Chiefs next week, Benson should enjoy a fairly productive day. - If your league awards points for Chuck Norris-esque toughness, Jeff Garcia just won you a championship. - The Weather Channel will fast become the friends of Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald owners. The Cardinals were absolutely awful in the winter wonderland that was Foxborough. If the weather is decent in Seattle this week and Warner and Fitz are expected to play (Arizona may rest their starters; hopefully we'll post updates on the blog), feel free to deploy the two. But if the weather in Seattle is frightful as it was Sunday, you're better off looking at other options. - Trent Edwards returned this week, but he was conservative, and Lee Evans continues to suffer because of it. The Bills' wide receiver had his third straight game of under 30 yards receiving. Such a sorry finish to such a strong start. Send us your wish list. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Shanahan's Karma Party Continues: More Running Backs On IR

2008-12-22T17:07:00.000-08:00

There is a God. And he does care about sports. And Mike Shanahan must have gotten on his bad side. It's the only way to explain the injuries to his running backs this year—the same running backs he's taunted Fantasy Football-dom with for 124,098 years—that now have slew PJ Pope and Selvin Young. The Denver Broncos coach said Monday that both backs are expected to be placed on injured reserve this week. Pope tore his hamstring and Young ruptured a disk in his neck in Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills. They'll be the sixth and seven running backs to be placed on IR for Denver this season. Tatum Bell is the only tailback left standing, so he could be a nice flex play against the Chargers if you have a championship game Week 17. Although if I was Bell, the last thing I'd want to do is step into the Broncos backfield that pretty much knifes every new starter in the cornea each week. Some dudes named Cory Boyd—from the Bronco's practice squad—and Alex Haynes—signed after being waived by Denver in November—may also have a chance to be slaughtered by the Shanahan curse this weekend as well. Neither have any fantasy value unless your league awards points for deaths.

Week 16 Name Calling

2008-12-20T09:45:00.000-08:00

Who you gonna call? Sorry Ghostbusters, but you won't do the trick this week. In most fantasy leagues, Week 16 means one thing: being one game away from fantasy glory. No room for error, and one mistake can mean the difference between first place and the soon-to-be-forgotten runner-up. No pressure.

Who You Gonna Call Kevin Walter/WR Houston: He's been flying under the radar this year, but has put up good numbers. Case in point: Walter has a better yards per reception average than superstar Andre Johnson—15.1 for Walter and 13.7 for Johnson—and more touchdowns than Johnson—eight to six in favor of Walter. Granted, Johnson is obviously the superior talent and fantasy play, but he'll be covered by one of, if not the, toughest cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. Nnamdi is certainly tough, but the rest of the Raiders' secondary is as tough as a bag of feathers. Chad Pennington/QB Miami: The best way to predict the future is by looking at the past. Look at what the past two quarterbacks have performed against the Dolphins' opponent this week, the Chiefs. 1. Jay Cutler: 32-40, 286 yards, two TD, one INT 2. Philip Rivers: 34-48, 346 yards, two TD, one INT That's a combined 66-88 (75% completion percentage) for 632 yards and four touchdowns in the past two weeks. Pennington hasn't put up huge numbers the past couple weeks, but there's no better time for a player to come up big than against a weak pass defense with your team's playoff hopes on the line. Given the Chiefs nearly non-exsistent pass rush, a league-low nine sacks, Pennington should have all day to throw. DeSean Jackson/WR Philadelphia: No Kevin Curtis. No Hank Baskett and consequently, no complaints from Kendra Wilkinson. That leaves Jackson and Donovan McNabb's right hand man this week in a rivalry game against the slumping Redskins. Ever since Andy Reid benched McNabb, he's turned it around, throwing seven touchdown passes to just one interception and winning the past three games. Who You Not Gonna Call Brett Favre/QB Jets: Yes, I'm telling everyone to bench the "savior." Favre has been very Favre-like lately, and that's not always a good thing. The gunsligner has thrown five interceptions to just three touchdowns the past four games. And in the three games New York has played on the West Coast—which is where the Jets will be playing this week—Favre has thrown five interceptions. Yikes. Tyler Thigpen/QB Kansas City: Nothing against Thigpen, but this Miami defense has been brutal the past three games. They have not, and I repeat have not, allowed a single touchdown in that span. None. Zilch. Nada. The same number of wins the Lions have. Marion Barber/RB Dallas: Usually a must-start, but the rulebook tends to get pushed aside in fantasy playoffs. Barber is questionable tonight and even if he does play, he won't be his usual self. Tashard Choice is likely to get a good chunk of the carries. Couple that with a stingy Baltimore run defense, and Barber's chances of a productive night are as slim as Jerry Jones wanting his team to fly under the radar. We believe in Santa. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Stat Boy Saturday: Predicting Week 17 Rest

2008-12-20T09:31:00.000-08:00

The number of articles produced by Fantasy Football Writers With Hair has gradually gone down in the last four weeks. Then I realized it. We're the New York Giants. Think about it: Tosten is Brandon Jacobs, Gage is Plaxico Burress, Alex is Eli Manning, and I am Derrick Ward. Tosten never missed an article or deadline, and he was a No. 1 fantasy writer until he got sick after posting a Donovan McNabb news update on Nov. 24. He recovered the following week, but then missed this week with a hamstring injury (or maybe not); Jacobs was a No. 1 back until he missed a Nov. 23 game against the Cardinals. He recovered and performed nicely in the next two weeks until missing last week with an injury. Gage showed up for the first few weeks of the year, giving his mancrushes weekly (but forgetting about the HAIRY's). Then he had some personal and family business that took up most of his time, and got it resolved to resume his posting duties. Plaxico Burress was a nice No. 2 wideout in the first half of the year. Then he had personal business to deal with (his shooting, obviously), and was suspended for the rest of the year. Although Gage came back from his issues, the comparison still stands. Alex and I are Manning and Ward, respectively, because we can be counted on week after week, as we never miss an article or deadline.

The Giants are major candidates to rest their starters next week if a simple turn of events occurs. Like us. If teams don't rest their stars next week, then there's no news for us to spin, no pickups to write about, no no-name players to mancrush (yes, it's a verb, too). But how can we tell which teams will sit their starters next week, which is the final week in some or most fantasy leagues? Every team locked into a playoff spot rest their stars, right? I was looking to bust that notion. I looked at every single player who played from 2004-2007 with more than 250 pass attempts, 150 rush attempts, or 50 receptions, and from their game-by-game performances, saw if they sat in Week 17 or did not. In order to reduce bias, I deleted the player's name and team when picking out whether the player rested, so as to not try and pick players on good or bad teams purposefully. If a player had 30 attempts in four straight games, then 12 in Week 17, he was classified as being rested. I came out with 15 rested QBs, 11 running backs, and 10 wide receivers. There were probably more wideouts than that, but because of the overall volatility of wideouts, if was hard to find which ones were rested and which ones just had a bad outing. After spotting the rested players, I looked at their team's wins to see if there was a trend. And there was.

Team Wins of Rested Player
QBs	RBs	WRs
10	10	10
12	12	13
13	10	10
11	14	14
10	10	11
13	12	11
14	13	13
11	10	14
11	13	10
13	9	12
10	13
13
13
13
13
Avg = 12	Avg = 11.5	Avg = 11.8

10+ win %	10+ win %	10+ win %
36.6%	24.4%	22.0%

13+ win %	13+ win %	13+ win %
61.5%	30.8%	23.1%

*Two players on 2005 Colts were rested. The two 14 wins were counted in the average, but only was was counted in the percentages. **10+ win % and 13+ win % represent how many 10-win (or more) and 13-win (or more) teams rested players. There were 41 10-win teams from 2004-2007, and 15 of those rested a QB; 15 divided by 41 is 36.6 percent. What this shows is that you shouldn't worry about running backs or wideouts being rested nearly as much as quarterbacks; even if your RB or WR sits, his attempts or receptions usually aren't that less than their seasonal numbers. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, get much more rest in Week 17 games than backs or wideouts. If you have a QB on a locked playoff team, you should definitely try to find a replacement—more than one-third of the time, the Week 17 attempts of a QB on a playoff team (a 10-win team) are substantially different than their pre-Week 17 numbers. The Giants, Panthers, Titans, Colts, and Steelers all look like they will rest their starters; the Colts already are lokced into the No. 5 seed, and the other four play each other this week and should have their spots locked in after their games. The Cardinals also have locked up a playoff slot and seed; they should rest their stars too. Whether you're in your finals or not, look out for teams resting their stars. We really hope that there is something to write about next week. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Week 16 Mancrushes

2008-12-19T17:38:00.000-08:00

Although I hate to link to juggernauts who will never return the favor to web weaklings like us, I don't see how I can post some Mancrushes without mention of Skip Bayless's latest retarded shiz that no one gives a crap about (courtesy of deadspin), this:

That has nothing to do with any point or argument that I'm trying to make, but it makes me feel less self-conscious about this column. Thanks Skip.

Tosten Burks Kind sir, die. I don't care about what you think your future is for the 2009 season. I could give a crap about how dangerous your team would be in the postseason. And I hate that you and your 17 interceptions made the Pro Bowl over Philip Rivers. But geezus. There's no way I can't love you, Brett Favre, for Week 16. New York's in a three-way tie for their division. There is no margin for error. They'll fight for their life this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Amen. Mike Holmgren's Seattle squad is last in the NFL in passing yards allowed. They are sixth-to-last in touchdowns allowed. Old Bretty Boy should enjoy a nice little game of football this weekend. Zach Fein I don't just have a mancrush on him. No, I absolutely love this guy. I hate myself for not owning Pierre Thomas in any league I am in. In the past five weeks since he started getting the majority of the touches, Thomas is averaging this beastly line: 16 carries for 80 rushing yards, three receptions for 35 yards, and 21 fantasy points; he's had eight touchdowns in those five games. His opponent this week, the Detroit Lions, gives up the most fantasy points to running backs, at 27 per game. The top rusher facing the Lions is averaging a stout 20 touches for 120 yards and 19.3 fantasy points per game; they've scored 17 touchdowns in 14 games this year. Those 19.3 fantasy points are the most that any team allows to top opposing rushers; if the top runner going against the Lions was a player, he would rank second among running backs in rushing yards, tops in rushing touchdowns, and tops in fantasy points (by 2.4 per game!). In short, start Thomas with pride. He's the best option at running back you could have this week. Alex Kozora They say the best things came in small packages. Evidently, the best things can came from fast packages. No, this isn't a FedEx or UPS promo. This is a Greg Jennings promotion. Jennings, the Packers' leading wide receiver, has set career highs in receptions and receiving yards to go along with his eight touchdowns. Jennings and the Pack are set to face a Bears team that's been hit hard by injuries to the secondary, having two cornerbacks—one of which was Nathan Vasher—and a safety on IR. Jennings has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, including a five catch, 64-yards-and-a-score performance against the Bears in Week 11. The man under center for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, has thrown for at least 278 yards and has six touchdowns in the past three games. Hopefully, Greg Jennings will deliver your team a fantasy championship. We just figured out what we're getting all our friends for Christmas. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

The HAIRY's: Week 15 Edition

2008-12-15T19:24:00.000-08:00

Gage Arnold stops by to hand out his weekly awards for this past weekend. Momma said knock you out. Well, it seems like TO's gonna knock you out now, especially if you plot against him to take away his passes. Alright stop, collaborate and listen. As long as your name is not Tony Romo or Jason Witten, then Team Obliterator needs a script of what you "discussed." In my honest opinion, Terrell Owens really needs to get some new socks if he wants to truly escape the grips of da-feet. Yeah, that was possibly the worst joke ever. Let's just go on ahead to the Hairy's.

The Sixth Sense Award (For Biggest Surprise)

And the award goes to ... Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Vikings

Wow, what more can I say. I mean, I know the Cardinals pass defense is bad, but to let Tarvaris Jackson of all people put up four touchdowns! I mean, the Cards bent like a wet newspaper, they lied down like Britney Spears, they crumpled like a leaf. But now I have to give some kudos to Mr. Jackson. I mean while it wasn't the Titans pass defense (which got completely blown up by Andre Johnson), it still was a formidable defense and it garnered him an award. Take a bow, Tarvaris. You actually earned it, for once.

The Last Indiana Jones Movie Whose Name You Can't Remember Because It Sucked So Much (For Biggest Bust)

And the award goes to ... Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins

This was a huge surprise to me. I not only expected the 'Skins to win the game, but to also blow out the Bengals and give it to Clinton for some nice garbage time as he ran for some nice yardage and possibly a score. But no, the 'Skins completely blow the game and Portis gets a horrible 25 carries for 77 yards. He deserves none of my kindness. I had him in one of my leagues and lost by five points because my opposing owner started Tashard Choice this week. It's times like these that psyco killers are made. But don't worry, I'm not like that, at all. On topic, Portis was disappointing, and has all but withdrawn his name for the MVP.

Lord, Del's Cup (Awarded to the Coach who Orchestrated The Biggest Team of Stooges)

And the award goes to ... Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans

How could you Jeff? It's fourth-and-three with 2:00 left on the clock as the Titan trail the Texans 12-13. Jeff Fisher choses to in fact go for it instead of taking his chances with his kicker Rob Bironas, who has hit a field goal from 60. So they in turn threw the incompletion and lost to a 7-7 team. This loss could help—it will keep Tennessee's guard up during the next few weeks, and they will not be able to bench their players or lighten up. Their spot is still on the line for tops in the AFC, but this still was obviously the wrong move, by far.

Paris Hilton Award (For the Player who Screwed the Most Owners Over This Week)

And the award goes to ... Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys

Marion. You are not tough and you obviously cannot keep to your word. I mean, all of this in sarcasm, but Barber still completely shot many people's fantasy playoff hopes in the foot with his two-point dinker this sunday. Why you ask? He was still in pain and truly should not have been active. Don't worry, they don't have tridents and spears in Texas, Marion, just cattle prods.

The Chad John ... Ocho Cin ... Ochocin ... Johnson Award (For Most Overblown Story of the Week)

And the award goes too ... (surprise, surprise) Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys

Do I really need to elaborate? Or collaborate? This is so sad. I mean, right now I'm wiring in signs to Tony Romo on how he could keep the ball away from TO even more. I have absolutely no pity for the Cowboys or their fans. They deserve nothing more, and as long as Jerry Jones runs this show, don't expect him to get off his high-horse anytime soon to put Terrell in his place.

Keep hanging in there guys, the HAIRY's will be back next week, better than ever.

I wonder if Tony Romo would cry for TO.

FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Weekend Recap: Week 15

2008-12-15T16:48:00.000-08:00

I have to say "no" to Yes Man. Nothing against Jim Carrey, but I hold a grudge against the producers, unless of course, Carrey is one of the producers. But in the words of the Monday Night Countdown crew, "Come on, man!" Can we at least try to come up with something a little original? Seems to me is all they did was add a little twist to the script of Liar Liar. How original. So creative, big raises all around. Luckily for football and those who play fantasy football, there is always something new.

- First there was Mark Clayton. Next, Seneca Wallace. Who will be hopping on the "he's a one-week wonder, don't buy into him" train this week? A little hard to fit on bumper sticker, but I digress. Cedric Benson, have a seat. The Redskins came into their game yesterday completely unfocused, and it showed. Badly. Anyone could've ran through that defense. Sure, Benson had 88 yards receiving, but 79 came on one play. Pass. - Matt Ryan continues to find ways to win at home—though I think Michael Turner deserves the credit for this win—but he still isn't a reliable fantasy start at home, as I pointed out in last week's Name Calling article. Two interceptions yesterday furthered my point. - Sticking with the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game, is there a more underrated player in fantasy football than Antonio Bryant? This guy is a near lock to star in one of ESPN's Fantasy Football Hall of Fame commercials. He has 74 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and six touchdowns on the season. As an added bonus, he's been on fire during this crucial playoff weeks, hauling in 20 receptions for 371 yards and four touchdowns in his past three games. Not to get ahead of myself, but he faces two paltry pass defenses in the Chargers and Raiders the next two weeks. Riddle me this (new catch phrase I'm testing out): how is a guy that is ranked 10th out of all wide receivers in points owned in just 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues? - Looking at the other side of the spectrum, Ronnie Brown has begun to fall off the map. He's only hit the 70-yard mark once—this past Sunday—since rushing for over 100 yards against the Raiders Week 11. To add to those woes, he's only hit pay dirt once in that same span. - It seems that the Ravens have settled on a main back. All of you Ravens fans who had money on Willis McGahee or Ray Rice have some explaining to do to the wife. Le'Ron McClain has had 20-plus carries in three straight, and 18 in the game before. Granted, he hasn't been overly productive, but he's the most dependable back right now. Alex forgot to write an end line so we'll just type the e-mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

ADD Attack!

2008-12-13T21:44:00.000-08:00

Check it out knuckas, we got a remodel. Layout changes and all that jazz. More details after the leap. (Heck ya, we have a leap now.)

Just to sum everything up so you know exactly what to complain about in your feedback email. - We added a third column to make your FF With Hair viewing enjoyment 33 percent better. (Stat Boy notes: Actually, it's 50 percent better. Before, there were two columns, now three; three divided by two equals 1.5. Even better!) - The site now has two hues of yummy brown. We wanted to reflect the chaos of the world and depict an escape of color that both shades and details the transition of life and temporary nature of our fantasy football essence. Or something. Just think of it as new giftwrap. - As bragged above, now you have to make one more click in order to read posts. Fun, fun. - There's some other minor differences that I would guarantee you don't even notice. If you can nitpick and find them, hit up the inbox and we'll buy everyone cookies. Yay. As always, yell at us at FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com, tell your friends about this site, and all that other stuff that reveals how needy, desperate, and retarded we are. P.S. This is Tosten. I wrote this. Not Zach. Just making sure that gets out there because I don't want to slap anyone else's reputation in the face other than my own if I don't have to.

Week 15 Mancrushes

2008-12-13T15:50:00.000-08:00

Sorry this is being posted late. I've been playing around all day creating this super cool FFWWH widget. It feeds every single piece of analysis, news update, preview, and spotlighted stat that is ever written by the mega awesome FF With Hair guys who are always available to answer any of your questions. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com. Bam. I just added it to my facebook. Shapow, now it's bookmarked on del.icio.us. And now it's embedded on this here very blog. You can take it anywhere. It's the perfect Christmas present. Actually it's just perfect, period. Kinda like the following group of players for Week 15. Transition jubilation! Tosten Burks Screw you Chargers. I can't believe I'm a fan. I can't believe I own a Tomlinson jersey. I can't believe I read blogs about your franchise. I can't believe you're 5-8. I can't believe a San Diego banker hasn't foreclosed Norv Turner's house in his face. I hate it. Tony Gonzalez loves it. San Diego has been burned by the following list of tight ends this year: Dante Rosario, Tony Scheffler, Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, Mark Campbell, Gonzalez once before, Matt Spaeth, Dallas Clark, Justin Peelle, and Miller another time. Have you even heard of half those guys? The Chargers can't stop tight ends. And this week, starting safety Clinton Hart is out, leaving Steve Gregory to man up Tony Gonzalez. Gregory has only started one game in his entire life. Last week. He'll get plenty of help, but San Diego's been double teaming tight ends all year. Expect huge numbers from Gonzo. Zach Fein What if I told you that the quarterback that has the fourth-most fantasy points in the last four weeks is currently on your waiver wire? And that said quarterback has more fantasy points in that period than Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo? And that only three have more touchdowns in that period? And that said quarterback has the ninth-most passing yards in that period? Oh, you're interested? Shaun Hill goes against a Miami team that is allowing more than 15 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks since Week Six (if you take out a negative-fantasy-point performance by Marc Bulger two weeks ago). Quarterbacks are averaging 253 yards and a score in that time frame, again without Bulger's game. There's no reason Hill should be on the bench in any league this week, let alone on the waiver wire. Pick him up if he's available and start him for a 20-point week. Alex Kozora

When your star player is unhappy, you know you better reverse that story. Case in point: Clinton Portis, disgruntled about not getting many carries last week, blasted Jim Zorn on the John Thompson show on December 9th. Apparently, everything between Zorn and Portis has been settled, but you know that Zorn and the Redskins coaching staff will make sure to keep their star running back happy. And what a better time to do so than against the lowly Bengals who rank a paltry 23rd in the league against the run. Portis is almost guaranteed points. If Rachel Ray made a fantasy football recipe, these would be the ingredients.

We're techno-hip! FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Week 15 Name Calling

2008-12-13T13:33:00.000-08:00

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. The only thing I hate more than the complete mess that is the Cowboys' locker room, seriously, they're acting more like the cast of The Hills than a football team, is writer's block. To be honest, I have nothing introduction-worthy. My mind is completely empty. Now I know what Jessica Simpson feels like. But you could care less about an introduction. All you need is solid fantasy advice. And my mind isn't blank in that department. Who You Gonna Call Derrick Mason/WR Baltimore: What, have you gone off the deep end, Alex? Do you not realize that Mason is going against the Steelers, the best defense in the league? No, I haven't lost it (yet). And yes, I'm well aware of who he's playing this week. In fact, that's a reason why I'm so high on Mason this week. Dating back to last season, he's averaging just under seven catches per game for 81 yards. The first time these two teams met this year, Mason went off for 137 yards on eight receptions. Mason has clearly been Joe Flacco's favorite target this year, having more than double the receptions of the next Raven (Mason, 65; Mark Clayton, 30). A big rivalry game at home with the playoffs on the line? You can bet Mason and company will be going all out. Jonathan Stewart/RB Carolina: This may be the last time I'll be able to put Smash, er....Stewart on this list. He had a coming-out-party last week on Monday Night Football against a stout Bucs defense, rushing for over 110 yards and two scores in a win over Tampa Bay. Now, he gets to face an easier defense in the Denver Broncos, who have allowed five rushing touchdowns the past three away games. Fantasy success. Chester Taylor/RB Minnesota: Little bit of a forewarning: I'd start him only in deeper leagues or if you're low on options. He hasn't gotten many carries lately, but he's made the most of his opportunities, scoring one touchdown in each of the last three games. Arizona, whom the Vikings face this week, have allowed three rushing touchdowns the past three games. See the trend? Who You Not Gonna Call Matt Ryan/QB Atlanta: Atlanta is at home this week; that's good news for fans, but for Ryan owners, it's nothing to get overjoyed about. Although Ryan is a better quarterback at home, he isn't that great of a fantasy quarterback. He's only thrown five touchdown passes at home in six games, four of those coming against the Lions, Chiefs, and Saints. Even the biggest hater of Tampa Bay would say that the Bucs defense is one of the better in the league. Don't forget how Ryan performed in his first meeting: 13 of 33 for 158 yards, two INTs and no TDs. David Garrard/QB Jacksonville: Riddle me this. What do you get when you combine an interception-prone quarterback and a defense that is near tops in the league in interceptions? A fantasy sit. That's the case with David Garrard this week, who has thrown at least one interception in four straight games. The Packers rank fiftth in the league in interceptions with 19. And though they gave up a ton of yards to Matt Schaub last week, Garrard doesn't have an Andre Johnson. And without Matt Jones, who is serving a three game suspension, his arsenal is even more shallow now. We don't have bounites on other sites. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Stat Boy Saturday: Fantasy Points Per Touch Revisited

2008-12-13T09:24:00.000-08:00

Quarterbacks
Name	Fan.Pts	Pts per 30
Philip Rivers	217.0	16.2
Shaun Hill	96.6	15.2
Tony Romo	178.9	15.0
Aaron Rodgers	236.9	14.7
Matt Schaub	134.4	13.9
Drew Brees	240.1	13.8
Seneca Wallace	71.6	13.7
Kurt Warner	236.6	13.5
Eli Manning	181.0	13.0
Matt Ryan	174.0	12.8
Jay Cutler	226.8	12.7
Tyler Thigpen	151.5	12.7
Donovan McNabb	204.7	12.2
Peyton Manning	200.7	12.2
Chad Pennington	169.9	12.2
Jake Delhomme	148.1	12.1
Trent Edwards	141.8	12.0
Kyle Orton	151.0	12.0
Jeff Garcia	132.5	11.9
Joe Flacco	157.6	11.8
Brett Favre	171.4	11.7
Ben Roethlisberger	155.7	11.6
J.P. Losman	28.7	11.5
Matt Cassel	191.6	11.3
Tarvaris Jackson	29.3	10.7
Jason Campbell	160.1	10.6
Sage Rosenfels	64.9	10.5
David Garrard	171.2	10.3

You can read how much I love Shaun Hill in this week's Mancrushes (whenever they get posted).
I also like Seneca Wallace this week. He's averaged 16.3 fantasy points in his last four starts, and the St. Louis Rams are in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.
If you were thinking of playing J.P. Losman or Tavaris Jackson because the Jets and Cardinals are in the bottom five against QBs in fantasy points allowed ... don't. You deserve to lose if you do.

Running Backs
Name	Fan. Pts	Pts Per 20
Pierre Thomas	120.0	20.9
DeAngelo Williams	216.2	18.6
Maurice Jones-Drew	178.9	18.6
Brandon Jacobs	175.3	17.5
Kevin Faulk	108.6	17.5
LenDale White	153.0	17.5
Brian Westbrook	193.3	16.5
Jonathan Stewart	119.7	16.3
Thomas Jones	215.7	15.8
Sammy Morris	91.3	15.5
Reggie Bush	115.8	15.4
Tim Hightower	115.9	15.4
Steve Slaton	185.4	15.3
Ronnie Brown	156.9	15.1
Chris Johnson	189.1	14.5
Mewelde Moore	117.1	14.4
Michael Turner	212.0	13.9
Le'Ron McClain	121.0	13.5
Frank Gore	182.5	13.5
Derrick Ward	116.2	13.3
Adrian Peterson	206.2	13.2
Marion Barber	177.6	13.1
Dominic Rhodes	99.5	13.0
Matt Forte	207.6	12.9
Clinton Portis	188.1	12.9
Steven Jackson	126.1	12.7
Marshawn Lynch	165.3	12.6
Kevin Smith	123.2	12.5
LaDainian Tomlinson	173.1	12.1
Ladell Betts	38.0	11.5
Warrick Dunn	106.6	11.3
Willis McGahee	93.3	11.0
Willie Parker	84.1	10.9
Ryan Grant	126.1	9.9
Jamal Lewis	120.4	9.8

Derrick Ward is in the middle of the pack in this list. But if you remember how high he was in last week's consistency article, he's a must-start in all formats. He's going to get you 12 fantasy points this week, no doubt about it.
Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are both low on this list. That's interesting, because most think that whoever gets the load of the carries in Baltimore performs outstandingly.
Dominic Rhodes is a top-12 running back this week. Why? He's averaging 17.9 fantasy points in his last four games where he had over 20 touches, and the top rusher on teams facing the Lions has put up 18.9 fantasy points per game.
Clinton Portis might not get all the carries in Washington, but that shouldn't make Ladell Betts be your flex play this week. His yards per carry on the year is only 3.3.

Wide Receivers
Name	Fan. Pts	Pts per 6
Devery Henderson	84.8	18.2
Justin Gage	77.1	17.8
Calvin Johnson	159.5	17.1
Vincent Jackson	121.1	16.5
Bernard Berrian	112.4	16.4
Terrell Owens	138.8	15.1
Kevin Walter	133.1	14.5
Isaac Bruce	105.3	14.4
Greg Jennings	155.1	14.1
Steve Smith	137.1	13.5
Randy Moss	132.1	13.0
Deion Branch	36.0	12.7
Lee Evans	109.3	12.6
Roddy White	160.9	12.4
Marques Colston	51.4	12.3
Larry Fitzgerald	169.1	12.2
Braylon Edwards	91.5	12.2
Lance Moore	125.4	12.1
Anquan Boldin	166.4	12.0
Michael Jenkins	76.9	11.8
Santonio Holmes	85.6	11.7
Santana Moss	117.6	11.6
Muhsin Muhammad	93.4	11.2
Antonio Bryant	123.7	11.1
Hines Ward	112.1	11.0
Reggie Wayne	121.8	10.9
Amani Toomer	74.5	10.9
Dwayne Bowe	120.7	10.8
Donald Driver	101.3	10.7
Roy Williams	52.9	10.6
Laveranues Coles	98.0	10.5
Marvin Harrison	88.3	10.4
Derrick Mason	111.1	10.3
DeSean Jackson	89.5	10.1
Brandon Marshall	139.3	10.1
Anthony Gonzalez	84.8	10.0
Andre Johnson	150.1	9.8
Jerricho Cotchery	94.2	9.6
Eddie Royal	109.9	9.6
Chad Johnson	74.7	9.0
Steve Breaston	98.0	8.8
Matt Jones	87.0	8.2
Davone Bess	49.3	7.6
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	112.5	7.6
Wes Welker	106.2	6.6

I don't like using fantasy points per touch on wide receivers. What will result is that the guys who seem to get a 50-yard catch every other week will rise to the top, and the possession receivers such as Wes Welker will sink to the bottom.
Nonetheless, it's still a fine measuring tool of production. Justin Gage is averaging 10.6 fantasy points in his past five games, including 7.7 on the year. However, he's had four or less fantasy points in five of his 10 games played. Start him if you need a high risk/high reward guy.
Amani Toomer hasn't been all that great on the year, but in the past three games when Plaxico had no catches or was injured, Toomer's put up 8.7 fantasy points per game. He's a nice flex play this week.
I also bolded Davone Bess. Though he's second-to-last, he's caught 20 balls for 245 yards in his last three. He won't get you a touchdown, but if you need 70-80 yards, he's your guy.

I think Tosten and Alex have been having secret meetings, too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Running the Wire

2008-12-09T17:17:00.000-08:00

Screwing League Mates Over By Stealing The Missing Pieces Of The Puzzle That They Need 101 I'm guessing that about 80 percent of people couldn't care less about the waiver wire at this point in this season. Most leagues are deep into the playoffs by now, meaning that only a small amount of the best and the luckiest of American males still have anything to play for. I say that's BS. Haven't you watched any ESPN lately? Jimmy Valvano says to never give up, god dang it! Never give up! We're going to a commercial break now. Never frickin' give up! Besides, even if you're in a redraft league, you can't rebuild for next year with draft pick trades, you're not in the running to win any point total money, there's no weekly high point total payouts; if you have absolutely nothing at all to play for, can you think of anything better to do with your time than steal a stud pickup off the wire from under the nose of that dick who ripped you off in that DeAngelo Williams trade from earlier in the season and who just lost his own waiver wonder boy Peyton Hillis to injury and now is panicking, and then you can laugh in his face as he falls flat without a No. 2 running back because you exacted sweet revenge on his roster? [Ed's note: And no, that wasn't a run-on.] No? I'm the only one who is laughing wildly right now? Well, then I guess there's no reason to read on then. Besides the super secret secret prize code password message in a bottle at the end of this article.... Gold Wire Pickups Seneca Wallace QB/Seattle—The latest from the Matt Hasselbeck camp is that the Seahawks are considering shutting him down for the season. That came after scrambling, fast, athletic, failed wide receiver experiment Seneca Wallace dropped a beast of a game in Week 14 against the Patriots. Sounds like he has confidence behind him and after seeing him throw three touchdowns, I think I like him too. Tatum Bell RB/Denver—I'll be the 37,947th person to spit this cliché, meme, and joke that another Bronco running back has "bitten the dust." Hahaha. I'm so originallllll and funnyyy. It's true though. And Tatum Bell and Selvin Young are the only guys with legs left on the team. And Selvin Young is hurt. And Tatum Bell was touching the ball a little bit even with Hillis raging as a starter. Bell's the guy you want. Deion Branch WR/Seattle—He caught two touchdowns the week that Seneca Wallace broke out. Obviously he's the No. 1 option for Seneca. He could surprise down the home stretch. Copper Wire Pickups Gijon Robinson WR/Indianapolis—Robinson had 6 catches for 69 yards week 14, but he's really more along the lines of a Chicken Wire Pickup. There's no chance he passes Dallas Clark on the depth chart. But his name's Gijon. Heck ya. That's a copper wire name. Anthony Fasano TE/Miami—He's been on the list before, but is still available in more than half the leagues. He put up some decent numbers this week and has four scores on the year. He's a fine tight end if you're desperate. Chicken Wire Pickups Ladell Betts RB/Washington—Clinton Portis and Jim Zorn clearly hate each other. And when a coach hates a player, he doesn't give him the ball every play. There's touches available for Betts. Unfortunately, when he got them Week 14 he put up three yards on six carries. Not much to look at here. JP Losman QB/Buffalo—Hahahahaha. 12-3-7-9-1. That has no meaning at all. Or does it...? FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Matt Jones's Foot Locker Credit Card Exploits Finally Catch Up With Him

2008-12-09T15:46:00.000-08:00

Well, Joey Porter should be happy. Months, literally months, after Matt Jones was caught chopping up some coke with a credit card in the back of a van, probably down by the river, the NFL has finally come to a decision concerning the Jaguars wide receiver who somehow emerged as a legitimate fantasy starter this season. Jones will begin his three game suspension on Sunday after his appeal was shot down by the No Fun League. Sucks for Jacksonville; they'll never make the playoffs now.... I guess some dud named Mike Walker is going to take over Jones's starting role. Jerry Porter will get more touches too. You don't need to remember either of those names. I imagine that Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor's production will stay around the same level, so they'll continue to score touchdowns and stink. David Garrard already was a bum this season. This won't change anything. Expect probably make him more of a bum. It is a shame that the most ghetto white guy in professional sports this side of Doug Christie's breakout season would be cut short though. Although I'm sure he has plenty of fun things to do with his newfound free time.

Weekend Recap: Week 14

2008-12-08T16:39:00.000-08:00

Fantasy playoffs make us do crazy things. Though for our viewers sake, I hope no one would do anything as crazy as what this Steelers fan did in yesterday's game against the Cowboys. No, that isn't a green screen, Photoshopped, or cropped. That is a man dousing himself with water. In 19-degree weather. And that's not even factoring in the wind chill. But alas, it is our goal to quench our thirst to bring home the championship gold. Scouring rotoworld.com 24/7, refusing to do anything else until you see if Marion Barber is tough enough to play this Sunday. Or dreaming about John Clayton's injury reports in your sleep. Oh wait, I'm the only one that does that? I digress. Let's just focus on all the news and notes about Week 14. - Matt Schaub returned to the lineup this week, and so did Kevin Walter's stats, hauling in six receptions for 145 yards and a score against beat-up Packers secondary. Provided that Schaub can stay upright, which admittingly is no guarantee, Walter is a good flex option from here on out. - Pssh, so much for the vaunted Jacksonville running game this year. Neither Maurice Jones-Drew nor Fred Taylor have gone over 70 yards rushing since Week 10 when Fred Taylor did it against the Lions. Sure, MJD has been finding the end zone, but as I mentioned in my Sit/Start section, you're rolling the dice each week (see my hate for Joseph Addai). Oh yes, that was written by me. And no, I'll never let those who thought I was wrong live it down. Because that was about the only thing I was right on all year. LJ at No. 4 coming into the season? Didn't work out too well for me. - Anyone know where in the world Davone Bess came from? With Greg Camarillo out for the year, Bess has jumped on the opportunity the pass three games, averaging around six receptions and 81 yards receiving. He's quickly becoming Chad Pennington's go to receiver, and a hot waiver wire commodity. - Happen to catch Seneca Wallace's performance this week? See my take on Mark Clayton from last week and heed that advice on Mr. Wallace. And for the record, the Ravens' receiver followed up his great Week 13 game with just two catches for 13 yards Sunday night against Washington. - Tashard Choice played as well as any running back has against the Steelers this year, but once Marion Barber returns to the lineup, he'll likely be back to riding the pine the rest of the season. - After getting the starting nod from Sean Payton, Pierre Thomas appears to have earned his trust. Thomas showed his versatility catching a touchdown pass while rushing for 106 yards on just 16 carries, including a third-down run that preserved the win for New Orleans. C'mon Man! FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

The HAIRY'S: Week 14 Edition

2008-12-08T15:07:00.000-08:00

Gage Arnold shows up for the first time in six weeks and gives us his Week 14 HAIRY'S awards. Well folks, here we are. Fantasy playoffs are on our doorstep and many playoff spots were set in stone this week. I'm sure that for those of you who relied on FFWWH this year, you're safely sitting in the playoffs. Listening to our advice of consistency and making sneaky deals for players with soft playoff schedules (cough, cough) will do that for ya. Let's get right to it everyone, it's time to pass out our HAIRY's. Minus all the Pink, Britney, and Madonna drama. Nor will Twilight be mentioned at anytime in this presentation.

The Sixth Sense Award (For Biggest Surprise)

And the Award goes to... Matt Schaub, QB, Texans

Where did this guy come from? I mean, the name is familiar, but seriously, who is he? Schaub, coming off of a four-week layoff from a knee injury, completely destroyed the Packers secondary by scorching them for 400-plus yards. He also threw for two TDs and even managed to let his stud WR Andre Johnson have a decent game against Pro Bowl corner Charles Woodson. Pick him up if he's available; otherwise, hope you don't face him in the playoffs as the Texans are finally hitting full stride.

The Last Indiana Jones Movie Whose Name You Can't Remember Because It Sucked So Much (For Biggest Bust)

And the Award goes to... Marshawn Lynch, RB, Bills Wow. What a stinker Lynch put up. Only three total fantasy points against the Dolphins of all teams. While they aren't what they were last year, this defense is still able to be scored on by all means. Though Lynch wasn't supposed to obliterate this defense I expected a decent output from him. But instead I was placed with nothing more than the dud he placed on Sunday.

Lord, Del's Cup (Awarded to the Coach who Orchestrated The Biggest Team of Stooges)

And the Award goes to... Mike Smith, Falcons While Smith has done an extraordinary job with this team, he managed to possibly cost his team a playoff spot with his call on Sunday. On their own 35-yard line with time under five minutes left, Smith chose to punt the ball and promptly never saw the ball again and suffered the 29-25 loss against the Saints. This was a great game and the call could be called brave, but in my humble opinion, you have to go for it. The Falcons defense cannot stop the Saints high-octane offense, so why not take a shot and at worse you lose the ball at a decent spot, which is nothing huge for the Saints. Not saying that his team consists of stooges, just his decision was questionable nevertheless.

Paris Hilton Award (For the Player who Screwed the Most Owners This Week)

And the Award goes to... Randy Moss, WR, Patriots A very, very, very below-average game for Randy against the lowly Seahawks' pass defense. Tons of owners (including myself) were tempted into the Dolphins game and wanted and expected more from the stud receiver. While his five-point stinker could have been worse, he does have the Oakland Nnamdi's up next, so expect another sub-par performance from Moss.

The Chad John... Ocho Cin.... Ochocin.... Johnson Award (For Most Overblown Story of the Week)

And the Award goes to... Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants This comes as a little surprise to anyone, as we await the wording on his final verdict for shooting himself in the leg with his illegal weapon. I'm pretty sure this could not have gone worse for Plax. I mean the man shot himself, and he may even go to jail, and this guy should totally be on Best Week Ever. Have a great week everyone, and see you guys next week. You stay classy. We're on the keyboard like a boss, and we floss. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Peyton Hillis Out For Season; Tatum Bell a Starter?

2008-12-08T14:31:00.000-08:00

Chris Mortensen was right, for once. Mortensen reported early this afternoon that Denver Broncos rookie running back Peyton Hillis was out for the year with a torn hamstring, which was confirmed by the Broncos, who formally put Hillis on the IR shortly after the report. "I said, 'Tatum, you can't go down. That's it,'" said Coach Mike Shanahan after Hillis went down with the injury. Hillis' injury is the sixth for a Broncos back this year; Andre Hall, Michael Pittman, Ryan Torain, and Anthony Aldridge are currently on the IR, and former starter Selvin Young has been out for two months with a torn groin. Tatum Bell and P.J. Pope will contend with Cory Boyd for the starting job. Then again, with Shanahan as head coach, you never know if he'll sign Shaun Alexander and put him in the starting role. Bell gained 68 total yards on 13 attempts in filling in for Hillis Sunday against the Chiefs. That 5.23 yards per touch average is significantly worse than the 5.86 that the Chiefs have given up on the year. Neither Bell nor Pope should perform to the extent that Hillis did (average of 16.6 fantasy points in his last four). That said, Bell should get 15 carries a game in the final three games against the Panthers, Bills, and Chargers. Selvin Young practiced fully on Friday but was inactive for Sunday's game. If he is healthy for the final three games, I like him more than both Bell and Pope. As for Hillis, feel free to drop him in even the deepest of dynasty or keeper leagues. Eventually we'll fill in for Shanny. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Da Games: Early Sundayers

2008-12-06T11:15:00.000-08:00

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup. Wow. (A one word lead! I'm Matthew Berry!) Perusing the internet I was and I came upon an interesting document from Neilsen, those ratings guys who have little leprechaun spies in your TV that know what programs your watching. (Bro-hug to Awful Announcing.) It says that 75 Million people visited sports websites in October. It also says that 11.6 million unique users logged more than 1.2 billion minutes on fantasy sports sites in 2008. 1.2 Billion minutes. With a B. And an illion. But FF Writers With Hair is getting only like 450 visits a month. With no illion. Not even an ousand. Just undred. That's a joke. Side note: We recently got a visit from somewhere in the District of Columbia. Bush? Condy? Me thinks we have powerful friends in high places. Or average blow White House workers just use their free time to set their lineups instead of keeping the President from getting sniped. Both the former and the latter would be pretty darn sick.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Kyle Orton, David Garrard RB— Matt Forte, Maurice Jones-Drew, Fred Taylor WR— Matt Jones, Devin Hester TE— none Key Stat 1— Since 1988, Chicago has scored more than 23.4 points per game (their average this year) just once, in 2006, and since entering the league in 1995, Jacksonville has given up more than 22.5 points per game just once, in '95. Our Take Tosten Burks— Matt Jones should never be the best wide receiver in a professional football game. Goodness. This will be a matchup dominated by the run on both sides. Although I wouldn't be surprised to see Orton get back in the groove this Sunday. Zach Fein— Jacksonville's been downright terrible this year. You saw what Steve Slaton did against them; look for Matt Forte to do the same. Alex Kozora— MJD's strength has been touchdowns this year ... only touchdowns. I still label him as a risky play. Kyle Orton has struggled lately, but Matt Forte is a great start. The Jags defense is playing nowhere near the level it was last season.

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Aaron Rodgers, Matt Schaub RB— Steve Slaton, Ryan Grant WR— Andre Johnson, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Kevin Walter TE— Owen Daniels, Donald Lee Key Stat 3.25— The Packers have outscored opponents by 3.25 points per game, yet are two games under .500. Since 1994, no team under .500 has had a higher scoring margin than Green Bay this year. Our Take Tosten Burks— Last weekend, Gary Kubiak lamented about not using Slaton enough in the first half. Then he gave the ball to him 2093 times in the second half. And then he raved after the game about how mature Slaton is. I'm thinking about going back and switching my mancrush. Expect huge numbers from the rookie. Zach Fein— As noted in the key stat, the Packers have been considerably unlucky this year. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-teens, so a low-scoring, old-school football game with little passing should be the final outcome. Alex Kozora— Matt Schaub returns, but expect him to be rusty. Don't think about benching Andre Johnson though. Not much to note for Green Bay; Rodgers, Jennings, and Grant are all good plays.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

Fantasy Impact Players QB— none, don't give me Culpepper and Gus Bus, get that outta here RB— Adrian Peterson, Kevin Smith WR— Calvin Johnson, Bernard Berrian TE— Visanthe Shiancoe Key Stat 0— The Detroit Lions have zero wins this year. Wait, you already knew that? Our Take Tosten Burks— Not going to lie, I have no idea if the Vikings D-linemen who tested positive for the banned substance in the StarCaps pills are going to play against Detroit. If someone knows, hit up the webmail, FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com. If they do, Calvin Johnson is the only Lion worth starting. If they don't, Kevin Smith is a top-eight running back. [Ed's note: Yes, Kevin and Pat Williams are playing.] Zach Fein— If the Williams duo was out this week, I would pick the Lions to win their first game this year. They're not, so the Vikes should pull out the win in the final minutes of the game. Start everyone for Minnesota. Calvin Johnson is a top-five wideout, and Kevin Smith is still a flex play this week, in my opinion, even with the Williamses playing. Alex Kozora— Another easy call. With Kevin and Pat Williams expected to play, I would look at other options than Kevin Smith if you're in need of a running back to start. You could start Calvin Johnson on his pure talent, but I don't expect any Lion to have a good game. Peterson owners have been waiting for this day since ... well, the last time the Vikings played the Lions.

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Peyton Manning RB— Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson WR— Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, TJ Houshmandzadeh, Chad Ocho Cinco TE— Dallas Clark Key Stat 1— Of the Colts' eight wins on the year, only one has been by a touchdown or more. Our Take Tosten Burks— What a bleh game. I don't care about the Colts and the Bengals are a vaudeville act. Anybody else wish their name was Visanthe? Zach Fein— This would have been a 40-37 game, two years ago. Play the usual Colts and bench all your Bengals. Alex Kozora— Houshmandzadeh remains the only dependable Bengal. You could get away with starting Ocho Cinco, but that's where I draw the line. Manning, Wayne, Gonzalez, and yes, Addai should be starting in fantasy lineups across the U.S.

Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans

Fantasy Impact Players QB— none, Collins and Dorsey are not startable anywhere RB— Chris Johnson, LenDale White, Jamal Lewis WR— Braylon Edwards, Justin Gage TE— Bo Scaife Key Stat 7, 4, 13— Seven wideouts have more fantasy points, four have more receiving yards, and 13 have more touchdowns than all Cleveland Browns receivers have combined. Our Take Tosten Burks— Winslow is out with a high ankle sprain, which will make Ken Dorsey's return to startingdom even more fun. Hey seuss, Justin Gage might be a better option than Braylon. I'd just start all the tailbacks. Zach Fein— Ken Dorsey has attempted four passes in the last 1,104 days. Don't get cute. Even in 32-team leagues. Alex Kozora— I made a joke about Ken Dorsey early in the week, but the Titans won't have any film on him. He could get away with some average performances his first outing or two, a la Brian Griese awhile back. Similar to when Brady Quinn started, the Browns will likely be playing small ball. In emergency situations, Steve Heiden or Martin Rucker can be used as flotation devices. Jamal Lewis will see a lot of carries, but then again, he has to go against the Titans' run defense. Start your usual Titans: Chris Johnson and Kerry Collins. Bo Scaife has been flying under the radar, too.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning RB— Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook WR— DeSean Jackson, Amani Toomer, Domenik Hixon, Kevin Curtis TE— Kevin Boss Key Stat(s) 1— The Giants have lost once in their past 16 games. 32— In wins, the Eagles have scored 32 points per game. In losses, the Eagles have given up 32 points per game Our Take Tosten Burks— All eyes will be on the Giants to see how they play in the midst of the Plaxico scandal. They'll be distracted. The Eagles have momentum from last week's Thursday beatdown. The Eagles have the urgency. I like Philly. A lot of good starts on both sides though. Zach Fein— Antonio Pierce is what keeps the Giants defense as good as it is. If he's not mentally stable after the Plaxico Burress incident, the Giants are going to struggle. I think this game is going to be a shootout just like the first time they played this year (36-31). Start everyone, including Derrick Ward, who is a very good flex play and low-end No. 2 RB in standard leagues. Alex Kozora— I wouldn't sit anyone you usually start because anyone you usually start is probably a star (Eli Manning, Brandon Jacobs, Brian Westbrook). Dominik Hixon and Amani Toomer have played very well in Burress' absence and both are considered average flex plays. Kevin Boss' targets should increase, too. McNabb is a decent start despite the Giants great pass rush.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Drew Brees, Matt Ryan RB— Michael Turner, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush WR— Roddy White, Marques Colston, Lance Moore TE— Jeremy Shockey Key Stat 2.5— Drew Brees has a 9.6 yards per attempt at home, which is 2.5 yards more than his 7.1 on the road. Our Take Tosten Burks— Reggie Bush is still hurt. Deuce McCallister isn't going to play because he's too busy cutting weight. Sean Payton says, "You'll see him get a lot of touches this weekend." Who is him? Pierre Thomas. I love Thomas this week. Zach Fein— The Falcons are 8-4, but have been underdogs the past two weeks to a 4-7 Chargers team and a 6-6 Saints team. Can the Falcons get some love? This game will be a high-scoring slugfest. Play everyone on both sides. As for the Saints RB situation, I like Bush the most out of all, followed by Thomas. Alex Kozora— Atlanta is on the road, a place where they don't play nearly as well. Great news for Brees owners though it's not like you'd ever find yourself in a situation where you sit him. Start Colston, Lance Moore, and Pierre Thomas with confidence. Ryan is a fringe start to me, but you could do worse. Turner and Roddy White should be starting in almost all leagues.

Da Games: Late Sundayers

2008-12-06T11:14:00.000-08:00

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Jay Cutler, Tyler Thigpen RB— Peyton Hillis, Larry Johnson WR— Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Eddie Royal TE— Tony Gonzalez Key Stat 19.6— The lead runner on teams facing the Chiefs has averaged 19.6 fantasy points per game this year, which would be the most in the league (by 2.7 points per game, no less) if "top runner facing Chiefs" was a running back. Our Take Tosten Burks— Which Broncos will show up? Eff if I know. Might as well risk it, they're playing the stupid Chiefs. Plug all their pieces into your puzzle. Side note: Hillis has looked as good as any Denver running back in years. What's his keeper value? Does Shanahan's RB ADD completely diminish it, or has he locked up the starting job? Interesting offseason story to watch. Zach Fein— Surprisingly, I like the Chiefs in an upset. Both QBs and WRs, and the three WRs are all starts. This should be a close, 30-27 game. Alex Kozora— Cutler, Peyton Hillis, and Brandon Marshall are must starts. Eddie Royal is a nice flex play. Tony Gonzalez will probably lead the Chiefs in targets with the Broncos' linebacking core still beat up.

Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills (in Toronto)

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Chad Pennington RB— Marshawn Lynch, Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams WR— Tedd Ginn Jr, Lee Evans TE— none Key Stat 14— Lee Evans is averaging 80 yards and a score in his last eight games against Miami, or 14 fantasy points per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— JP Losman. Hahahahaha. Zach Fein— Lee Evans is a top-5 wideout this week as he goes up a team he alway burns. Chad Pennington, Marshawn Lynch, and Ronnie Brown are starts as well. Looking for a sleeper? Davone Bess has had 80 yards in each of the last two games (his two games as a starter). Alex Kozora— Running backs should dominate this one since there will be frigid temperatures in Toronto. Good news for Marshawn Lynch and Ronnie Brown owners, both of whom are great starts. With the absence of Trent Edwards, downgrade Lee Evans.

New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Brett Favre, Shaun Hill RB— Thomas Jones, Frank Gore, Leon Washington WR— Laveraneus Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Isaac Bruce TE— Dustin Keller, Vernon Davis Key Stat 16.4— Since gaining the starting job, Shaun Hill has averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— Am I the only one who thinks that Michael Bloomberg must be a Jets fan? Three-and-a-half years for gun possession. I don't know, but that seems crazy to me. No one who has fan interest vested in the team that the player involved is on gets outraged at the thought of said player not getting punished to the full extent of the law. By the way, Shaun Hill is good. Who knew? Zach Fein— We don't need to tell you, but play Favre, Thomas Jones, Coles, and Cotchery. I think Leon Washington gets either a touchdown or a long run, too. Shaun Hill, as noted in the Key Stat, is worthy of being a starter in 12-team leagues, plus the Jets have given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs on the year. Alex Kozora— Nate Clements is banged up, and may not play Sunday. If not, upgrade Favre, Cotchery, and Coles. Thomas Jones has been steady, yet productive all year long. The only 49er worth starting is Gore.

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Matt Cassell RB— Sammy Morris, Julius Jones WR— Randy Moss, Wes Welker TE— John Carlson Key Stat 1— Only one team gives up more fantasy points to opposing QBs than the Seahawks. Our Take Tosten Burks— Some observations about the player list above: Hasselbeck is not fantasy relevant while Cassell is. What in the world? Sammy Morris is supposedly the New England running back flavor of the week and they say Jones is the back of choice for Seattle right now. I don't trust either. I have a strange obsession with John Carlson. I have no idea why. Zach Fein— Matt Hasselbeck is out. Frankly, I wouldn't play anyone on the Seahawks this week. Alex Kozora— All Pats are a go. All Seahawks aren't, especially with Matt Hasselbeck out again. Simple as that.

St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Kurt Warner RB— Steven Jackson, Tim Hightower WR— Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Steve Breaston, Torry Holt, Donnie Avery TE— nothing Key Stat 78— Steve Breaston is averaging 78 receiving yards in his last nine games. Our Take Tosten Burks— Here's a key stat: 100 percent of the starting running backs in this game have dreadlocks. That has no fantasy value at all. Holt and Avery are risky but I like 'em both for this week in bigger leagues. The Cardinals aren't good on defense. Zach Fein— Play everyone on the Cardinals. Start SJax and no one else on the Rams. Alex Kozora— Warner, Fitz, and Boldin should have their owners grinning when this game is all said and done. I'd start Hightower in the flex, too. No Rams are worth starting.

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger RB— Willie Parker, Tashard Choice WR— Terrell Owens, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward TE— Jason Witten Key Stat 3— Ben Roethlisberger has three more interceptions than passing touchdowns since Week Eight. Our Take Tosten Burks— Matt Hasselbeck called Big Ben a girl this week. I say Roth gets pumped up and goes off for a big day. P.S. This USC/UCLA game that just finished at time of typing absolutely sucked. While are people still excited about Rick Neuheisel? What has looked good about his inaugural season? Zach Fein— Marion Barber has been ruled out of this game, but I don't like Tashard Choice against the stout Steelers defense. This game is going to be low-scoring, and I only like Romo, TO, Ward, and Witten in this game. Alex Kozora— Despite their vaunted defense, it'd be hard to justify sitting any of the Cowboys many studs. Ditto with the Steelers, I'd start everyone you normally would.

Da Games: Prime Timers

2008-12-06T11:13:00.000-08:00

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup.

Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Jason Campbell, Joe Flacco RB— Clinton Portis, Le'Ron McClain WR— Santana Moss TE— Chris Cooley Key Stat 18.5— The Ravens give up only 18.5 fantasy points to QBs and RBs per game, by far the best in the league. Our Take Tosten Burks— Dude. Todd Heap caught a touchdown last week. I thought that guy was six feet under. I'd guess that it was a fluke though. In this matchup Portis and Cooley are the only guys you should start confidently. Moss and Evans probably are must starts though. Zach Fein— I really like this Ravens team. I actually think they're one of the best in the AFC. Look for a 17-10 game here. Start Portis, Moss, Mason, and the two tight ends. I'd guess that Le'Ron McLain will be the Ravens back you want this week. Alex Kozora— Only Redskins player you should definitely start is Portis. If you have more viable options than Jason Campbell, Santana Moss, etc. don't hesitate to use them. I'd still stay away from Baltimore running backs. Never know who's going to get the workload. Jim Harbaugh must've taken a Mike Shanahan crash course.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Jake Delhomme RB— DeAngelo Williams, Warrick Dunn WR— Steve Smith, Antonio Bryant TE— none Key Stat 11— There have been an average of 55 points scored in the 14 Monday Night Football game splayed this year, 11 more than the 44 scored during Sunday and Thursday games. Our Take Tosten Burks— What is up with Jonathan Stewart? He was the most physically imposing rookie running back. 235 and a 4.4 40. He's stunk all year! He busted one long last week, but on the 50 yard dash he looked slower than Warrick Dunn's mother. One of the bigger busts of 2008. Start his backfield mate Williams with confidence though, along with Dunn and Smith. Zach Fein— The Bucs and Panthers both have very good defenses, but as the Key Stat shows, MNF games have been much more high-scoring than other games this year. I only like DeAngelo, Dunn, Steve Smith, and Antonio Bryant in this game. Alex Kozora— I don't think you can sit Steve Smith, but I wouldn't start Jake Delhomme. He's had his fair share of struggles lately. However, with the Bucs defensive line ravaged by injuries, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart could have excellent days. Give it another week before you even start to think about starting Caddy, as tempting as it might be, it's only been two weeks. Don't forget about Antonio Bryant if you're in need of a wide receiver; he's been Garcia's favorite target.

Stat Boy Saturday: Which Players Can You Trust In The Playoffs?

2008-12-06T11:00:00.000-08:00

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. He checks in this week with the most consistent performers on the year. Some people you just cannot trust. O.J. Simpson says he never killed his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson or her friend Ronald Goldman. Bill Clinton says he "did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky." Roger Clemens says he did not take steroids. (Wait, that's not the right video...) Today, Chris Landry, formerly of Sportsnet.ca, denied plagiarism of Andrew Brandt and Mike Lombardi of NationalFootballPost.com. Heck, I couldn't trust anyone that said you can trust any of those examples. On the same note, there are some football players you can't trust week-in, week-out for your fantasy team. Last year, Chad ~~Johnson~~ ~~Ocho Cinco~~ ~~Ochocinco~~ Johnson had 87.2 fantasy points in his three highest-scoring games, and 104.8 in his other 13 games. This year, his teammate T.J. Houshmandzadeh has 62 fantasy points in his three highest-scoring games, and just 43 in his other nine games. You wouldn't want to trust either of them as your No. 1 or 2 wide receiver going into the fantasy playoffs. Similarly, you could trust Willis McGahee last year—he had double-digit fantasy points in every game heading into the playoffs, but unfortunately burned some with two games under six fantasy points in Weeks 14 through 16 and was injured in the final week of the season. What about this year? Who are the safest choices for your fantasy team, and who are the biggest risk/reward players? I looked at the week-to-week consistency of the top-15 quarterbacks, top-25 running backs, and top-30 wideouts by looking at the standard deviation of their game-by-game stats. Standard deviation effectively measures how far a set of values (in this case, week-by-week production) is away from the mean; here's a more detailed definition. A lower standard deviation means that the player usually produces the same each week, a higher meaning that you can't predict the player's performance. In order to take away from those players who seem to get five carries for 20 yards each and every week (and therefore would have a standard deviation almost near zero), I found a player's real value by dividing their fantasy points per game, by the standard deviation of the week-by-week fantasy points per game—if player X scores 15 fantasy points per game and has a standard deviation of five, his "value" would be three, 15 divided by five. Doing this makes a higher score better. I did this for different statistics for each position, to see, for example, if a running back was getting the same amount of carries per week but much different amounts of rushing yards. Here are the results.

Quarterbacks
Player	Fan.Pts	Yard_Pass	TD_Pass
Kurt Warner	3.74	3.69	2.83
Jason Campbell	3.05	3.75	1.21
Matt Ryan	3.02	4.72	1.26
Tony Romo	3.00	5.12	2.47
Eli Manning	2.97	4.28	1.66
Aaron Rodgers	2.80	3.83	1.62
Drew Brees	2.71	5.23	1.73
Jay Cutler	2.36	3.47	1.73
Peyton Manning	2.27	5.18	1.66
Phillip Rivers	2.20	3.30	1.72
Chad Pennington	2.04	3.72	0.96
David Garrard	2.01	4.29	1.21
Tyler Thigpen	1.97	2.26	1.18
Joe Flacco	1.88	3.93	1.22
Donovan McNabb	1.80	3.14	1.19
Ben Roethlisberger	1.71	2.74	1.14
Brett Favre	1.69	5.40	1.04
Trent Edwards	1.62	3.46	1.77
Jake Delhomme	1.53	2.93	1.22
Matt Cassel	1.32	2.64	0.91

Jason Campbell has been sneakily consistent this year. His week-by-week fantasy point totals are as follows: 9, 17, 18, 18, 8, 10, 11, 15, 5, 11, 15, 11. Only one single-digit game since Week Two equals fantasy playoff starter-worthy.
No. 3 on this list is Matt Ryan, who, like Campbell, has only one single-digit fantasy point game since Week Three. Both he and Campbell are must-starts if you are sitting with Ben Roethlisberger or Jake Delhomme at quarterback. You know you'll get 12 points out of them.
Nos. 6 through 10 are the heavyweights, if you will. Just because they are below . Let me repeat: just because they are below Campbell and Ryan does NOT mean you bench them for a rookie quarterback.
McNabb would have a 2.53 value, just above Jay Cutler, if his -3.1-point stinker against the Ravens was taken out. Don't take too much into his low spot.
Drew Brees is No. 2 on the passing yards value list—that is phenomenal considering he has just a bit more passing yards than Kurt Warner, who is 10 spots lower than Brees.

Running Backs
Player	Fan.Pts	Touches	Yards_Total	TD_Total
Matt Forte	3.28	6.87	4.07	1.21
Derrick Ward	2.90	2.92	4.61	0.45
Jamal Lewis	2.72	4.70	6.74	0.71
Brandon Jacobs	2.45	5.10	2.70	1.38
Frank Gore	2.31	4.24	2.85	0.91
Adrian Peterson	2.28	4.50	2.48	1.04
Marshawn Lynch	2.27	3.67	2.80	1.07
Clinton Portis	2.26	4.46	2.92	0.77
LaDainian Tomlinson	2.13	5.12	2.85	0.77
Thomas Jones	2.07	3.78	2.88	1.04
Marion Barber	2.06	3.29	2.40	1.04
Kevin Smith	2.02	2.28	2.16	0.85
Tim Hightower	1.98	2.57	1.91	1.04
Chris Johnson	1.83	5.02	2.28	0.89
Steve Slaton	1.79	3.83	2.21	1.04
Maurice Jones-Drew	1.66	2.88	1.93	0.96
Le'Ron McClain	1.61	1.93	1.75	0.91
Ryan Grant	1.60	2.77	2.04	0.58
Michael Turner	1.56	4.98	2.12	0.82
DeAngelo Williams	1.50	4.66	2.22	0.86
Ronnie Brown	1.43	3.64	2.19	0.78
Steven Jackson	1.40	3.20	2.18	0.50
Brian Westbrook	1.31	3.06	1.73	0.86
LenDale White	1.26	2.11	1.11	1.14
Mewelde Moore	1.22	1.77	1.93	0.59

Want a very nice flex play this week? Check out Derrick Ward. In his past five games, he's averaged 18 touches, 94 yards, and 11.8 fantasy points. Even with Brandon Jacobs ahead of him, he's had eight games with more than eight fantasy points since Week Two, and has had more than five fantasy points in every game on the year.
Last year, Adrian Peterson was so inconsistent his fantasy point value was a paltry 1.24. He's silenced his critics this year with just three single-digit games on the season.
DeAngelo Williams is No. 20 on the fantasy points value list. But if you only look at Week Five, when he started to become a real fantasy force, and beyond, his value in that category jumps to 2.23. He was incredibly consistent from Weeks One through Four, and Five through Thirteen—but if you combine them together he's not.
Jamal Lewis is far and away the best in yards value. Just look at his week-by-week yardage total. He's as sure of a thing for 80 yards as anyone.

Wide Receivers
Player	Fan.Pts	Targets	Yard_Rec	TD_Rec
Larry Fitzgerald	3.61	3.27	2.35	0.89
Dwayne Bowe	2.74	3.00	2.68	0.77
Wes Welker	2.57	4.71	2.69	0.30
Greg Jennings	2.28	2.06	2.58	0.91
Anquan Boldin	2.23	2.92	2.21	1.17
Roddy White	2.07	2.47	3.36	0.77
Andre Johnson	1.95	2.99	2.10	0.71
Calvin Johnson	1.90	2.46	2.23	1.07
Steve Smith	1.88	4.31	2.37	0.60
DeSean Jackson	1.86	3.68	2.11	0.45
Hines Ward	1.82	2.54	2.06	0.77
Lee Evans	1.81	2.24	2.15	0.58
Vincent Jackson	1.73	2.42	1.87	0.85
Reggie Wayne	1.69	2.59	2.31	0.85
Brandon Marshall	1.66	3.30	2.03	0.76
Kevin Walter	1.52	2.81	2.20	0.77
Donald Driver	1.48	2.10	1.92	0.71
Muhsin Muhammad	1.45	2.06	1.70	0.71
Derrick Mason	1.43	2.83	1.73	0.58
Jerricho Cotchery	1.41	2.16	1.89	0.53
Terrell Owens	1.39	2.46	1.34	1.07
Eddie Royal	1.35	2.80	1.38	0.91
Lance Moore	1.33	2.51	1.54	0.89
Antonio Bryant	1.32	2.03	1.54	0.58
Santana Moss	1.32	2.54	1.32	0.85
Isaac Bruce	1.31	2.26	1.19	0.77
Bernard Berrian	1.28	2.00	1.46	0.85
Randy Moss	1.26	3.25	1.75	0.71
T.J. Housmandzadeh	1.25	3.19	1.72	0.53
Laveranues Coles	1.05	2.27	1.64	0.58

Wes Welker has been considered a bust thus far, but he's near the top in fantasy points, targets, and receiving yards value. He's had at least six targets in every game, 50 yards in all but two, and five fantasy points in all but two games on the year. With the Seahawks coming up this week, he's a great start if you need a safe, reliable option.
Near the bottom of the fantasy points list are all the long-catch guys. They either get a 60-yard touchdown catch or 30 yards on the day, which I why I like to stick with the Wes Welkers of the world over the Bernard Berrians.
If you have Santana Moss as your No. 1 wideout, you better hope he goes off for 140 yards. Moss has six games under 60 yards receiving, and he's averaging only 6.2 fantasy points per game if you take out his three big games over 140 yards.

Week 14 Name Calling

2008-12-06T09:39:00.000-08:00

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. I hear that the Chargers/Raiders game was held in 3D in certain theaters. "Hear" is the operative word though since I don't happen to live in Los Angeles, New York, or Boston. And despite my one-man hunger strike to put the NFL Network on cable isn't going over so well, I couldn't even watch the game. Though now that I think about it, that's probably a blessing in disguise. Who wants to spend a Thursday night watching the Raiders get crushed? The whole 3D concept seemed too gimmicky for me. This isn't Spy Kids. You don't need to get all fancy when you're the NFL, or at least you shouldn't have to. Just put on football and people will watch, even if it is the Raiders. Here at FFWWH though, we don't need a gimmick. Just straight-up fantasy football advice. Who You Gonna Call Pierre Thomas/RB New Orleans: Début le! That's "start him" in French at least, so says the Internet which probably isn't the best place to go for a translation. Whatever language, Thomas is a solid play against Atlanta this week. The game is in the Superdome, where the Falcons allow an average of a little over 101 yards on the ground per game this year (117 if you take out the game against Oakland). Even with Deuce eligble to play, it sounds like Thomas will be the workhorse after hearing this from Sean Payton: "I think so, " Payton said. "We saw him handle a real good workload a year ago in Chicago, and certainly his role has changed of late with us. You'll see him get a lot of touches this weekend." That's a ringing endorsement from both Payton and myself. Tim Hightower/RB Arizona: Yes, he's struggled the past few weeks. About the only thing that's done worse than him is the run defense of the Rams. And look at that, Hightower gets to face those very same Rams this week. At home. With something to prove. The last two times the Rams went on the road? They were blown out, allowing 149 yards to Thomas Jones and 106 to Frank Gore. Because of the rookie's struggles, some fans want Edge back in the lineup. I can assure you he wants to quiet his critics, and a big game would do just that. On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always call, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to start some dude over LDT): RBs against Detroit and Kansas City, WRs against Miami and Seattle, QBs against Detroit and San Diego Who You Not Gonna Call Jason Campbell/QB Washington: After starting out the season on a really good note, Campbell's play has diminished the past few weeks. Including the Steelers game Week Nine, Campbell has thrown just two TDs compared to his four interceptions and has only one game in which he threw for over 206 yards. Back-to-back games in which he struggled to complete 60 percent of his passes doesn't help his cause either. Frankly, I don't see things getting better for him this week. I'll do my best impersonation of Zach and throw some numbers your way. 1. The Ravens rank second in the league in pass defense, allowing just over 175 yards through the air. 2. The Ravens are first in the league in interceptions with 20. 3. They are 9th in the league in sacks. Granted, they have benefited from a soft schedule so far, but they're a very physical team. Jason Campbell, or anyone else for that matter, doesn't want any part of that. Jake Delhomme/QB Carolina: He and the Panthers have been winning games in real life, but the story probably isn't the same if you've been starting Delhomme in your fantasy leagues. He's only thrown for three touchdown passes his last four games, and attempted just 17 passes last week. Tampa Bay has one of the most stingy pass defenses in the league, third in the league to be exact, led by Monte Kiffin and that dreaded Tampa 2. The past three weeks they held Gus Ferrotte and Daunte Culpepper to under 150 yards passing, and they picked Drew Brees off three times last week, something that has only happened three times the past two seasons. Not On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always caller ID check and ignore, once again using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to bench Drew Brees): RBs against the Ravens, Oakland WRs, QBs against Indianapolis

We wear belts. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Week 14 Mancrushes

2008-12-05T19:13:00.001-08:00

Yada, yada, yada, the old intro was boring. I'm cutting it. And the "Straight Outta Mancavedom" thing was absolutely atrocious. How did none of you readers email us and tell us how fricking eye callusing it was? Feedback people. We want to know when we're retarded. Ya I used the R-Word. Retarded. Demented. Inept. Tell us when we're that. [FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.] Also, tell your frickin friends about this site. I know you take into account every effing word we have to say. Tell your friends to drink our content every desk day too. Share the mother effin tequila. Here's our week fourteen bromances. We like the following list of men. That's right. Tosten Burks You know that gay B-lister on The Hills, Brody? Yeah, dated LC, son of that decathlon. How sick would that be to be in his entourage! To be his best friend. Like MTV says, "He's the type of guy everyone wants to hang out with." So you are trying to become his BFF. But so are a whole group of other "regular guys." And it's all filmed. And televised. Probably prime time. That'd be the sickest thing on the tube right? Okay, shank me in the lymph node now. I'm done. What the heck is wrong with you Music Television dumb jacks? Play music. Not ridiculous episodes of making friends and frolicking in rose petal showers. Like this. You've gotta be joking me. Oh, and start Steve Breaston. He's had at least six receptions three of the past four weeks. Plus the Cardinals play the Rams this week. Who are minus any sort of passing defense. What does that equal? A math problem! And a quality start for Fitz and Boldin's wingman Steve Breaston. Who's cool, unlike Brody Jenner. Zach Fein Don't play Denver running backs....Don't play Denver running backs.... That's a fantasy truism, right? You know, what with Mike Shanahan and his interchangeable-parts backfield? Right? Forget it. Peyton Hillis is an every-week start. He's averaging just below 100 total yards per game on 18 touches in his last three games (as well as four touchdowns in that span) since becoming the starter in Denver. His rushing attempts have gone up by more than five each week and his total yardage by 26. He's had a robust 5.04 yards per carry and 5.46 yards per touch in those three games, too. Want even more reason to start him? His opponent: Kansas City. The top opposing rusher (in terms of fantasy points) going against the Chiefs each week has a per-game line of 16 carries for 90 rushing yards, three receptions for 26 yards, and 19.6 fantasy points, with 16 touchdowns in 12 games. And that's not even including Chris Johnson and his 168 rushing yards in Week Seven. Alex Kozora Canada, eh?

Yes, that's where my mancrush where be playing this week. No, this isn't anyone from the CFL (sorry Mike Vanderjagt, currently of the Toronto Argonauts).

I'm talking about Marshawn Lynch, and he and the Bills will be playing in Toronto this weekend. It's bound to be cold, I've never heard of a Canadian heat wave, and with a QB situation that won't be decided until gametime [Ed's note: Trent Edwards was declared out], you can bet the Bills will as run-minded as can be.

Lynch is averaging 18 carries at home this year allowing for a lot of opportunities to rack up yards and touchdowns. Yes, I consider Toronto a home game for the Bills.

A great start this week, eh?

We don't ever state the obvious of all slapping you in the forehead multiple times obviousness. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Update on the Busy Lackadaisical Past Few Weeks

2008-12-04T20:05:00.000-08:00

Tosten claims the reason for his two articles in 21 days is that he's been busy and sick. Gage saw Twilight. Alex and I have, well, done our jobs and posted each of our respective articles. The Mancrushes will be up tomorrow absent Gage as always. The Name Calling and Stat Boy articles will be up tomorrow and Saturday, we stopped doing Double Coverage about Week Five or so, and the Da Games Forecasts depend on whether we are in the mood to do them. I did my part of them three weeks ago (November 15 for those counting at home) but Alex and Tosten were doing other things so it wasn't posted. And don't ask me about the last two weeks. The HAIRY'S won't be posted on Monday but the Weekend Recap will, and the Running the Wire and News From Ball Street articles should be up Tuesday and Wednesday. That sums it up.

Matthew Berry Clearly Doesn't Read Us

2008-12-02T20:55:00.000-08:00

From today's "Talented Mr. Roto" column:

[T]he Ravens have a tough playoff schedule against the run. Redskins, Steelers and then at the Cowboys. ... Here's a list of teams with the best and worst playoff schedules, in no particular order. [Goes on to list teams] It's just something to keep in mind as you consider roster moves while reading the pickups.

Tsk tsk.

Burress Shoots Himself In Foot (Figuratively This Time); Deuce and Others Suspended

2008-12-02T15:48:00.000-08:00

A few days after shooting himself in the leg at a nightclub, Plaxico Burress has been suspended by the New York Giants for four games. He was placed on the non-football injury reserve list, ending his season. Burress currently faces two counts of illegal weapon possession, and if convicted without pleading down the charge, he faces a minimum jail sentence of three and-a-half years with a maximum sentence of 15 years. Burress can obviously be dropped in any single-year leagues, and at this point, isn't even a keeper option. Granted, that could change depending on how the case pans out. Domenik Hixon will continue to start in Burress' place and is definitely worth picking up in all leagues. Eli Manning's value shouldn't be effected though; he's played well in Burress' absence, throwing for 545 yards and four touchdowns the past two games. Amani Toomer along with Kevin Boss get boosts in their respective value. Antonio Pierce, allegedly involved during the time of the shooting, has not been disciplined by either the team or league, but is still under investigation. Derrick Ward's name has been cleared in the case.

In other news, six players were suspended by the league today for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy. Those players are as follows:

Deuce McAllister/RB New Orleans
Charles Grant/DE New Orleans
Will Smith/DE New Orleans
Bryan Pittman/LS Houston
Kevin Williams/DT Minnesota
Pat Williams/DT Minnesota

Fantasy Impact:

Grant's, Smith's, and Pittman's suspensions have little to no impact. With Deuce out for the rest of the regular season, Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush will share the carries. Thomas has played well lately, and has more value than Bush until Reggie shows that he's fully healed from his injury. The Vikings' defensive line is decimated because of these suspensions. Opposing offenses should have a much easier time running the ball with a 650-plus-pound wall gone. Good news for Kevin Smith, Tim Hightower, and Michael Turner owners. [Ed's note: The Vikings' remaining games come against the Lions, Cardinals, and Falcons, as well as the Giants in Week 17.] Offenses' passing games get a boost, too, as the Vikings may have to stack the box and be more run-focused to make up for the loss of the Williams duo. [Writer's note: A federal judge blocked the suspensions on all the players involved except for Bryan Pittman. This means the other five players will be be eligble to play this week.]

Weekend Recap: Week 13

2008-12-01T17:24:00.000-08:00

I'm sure a lot of us here—well, how do I put this nicely—aren't fans of Matthew Berry. With that said, I'm sure a lot of us would give anything to see him mocked for making an incorrect pick. Those people got their wish this week. In the fantasy edition of NFL Sunday Countdown with Mr. Berry and Merril Hoge (who gave us the groundbreaking story that fantasy owners love when their players score touchdowns), Berry said to sit Donald Driver, as well as in his Love/Hate list for Week 13. I'll give credit where credit is due (and for the record, I don't hate Berry), Driver had a sub-par week. But he had one great catch, and Chris Berman made sure to make a note of it, remarking, "Sit him" as the highlight of Driver's diving catch rolled across television screens. Simply awesome. - You know what else is awesome? Jason Witten finally broke out of the slump on Thanksgiving, catching nine passes for 112 yards and a touchdown. His chemistry with Tony Romo should be at full strength again, making performances like this common place in the upcoming weeks. - DeAngelo Williams has certainly developed a knack for the end zone lately. Seven touchdowns the past three weeks, and the Panthers are the first one to recognize that. With at least 17 or more carries in six of his last eight games, he's become a dependable start. - Don't read into Mark Clayton's showing Sunday. Even the most optimistic Ravens fan will tell you that he's as hit-or-miss as they come. Not to mention that it was against the Bengals, who have more injured defensive backs than they do fans. - Joseph Addai had just 57 yards against a Browns defense that ranks just 26th in the league against the run. It's a Thanksgiving miracle! Not really actually, as this was the sixth time this season that Addai was held under 60 yards rushing. Jeff Saturday's return is up in the air, keeping Addai's value in the toilet. - It's a sign of the apocalypse. Stock up on water everyone, Ken Dorsey—boy, was the first sentence of that card wrong—is a starter again. Run! - Peyton Hillis' carries and production have increased the past three weeks. Seems like Shanny has finally settled on a running back. This must really be the end of the world. - No ~~Harris Smith~~ Plaxico Burress, no problem. All Amani Toomer and Domenik Hixon did was catch a combined 10 balls for 156 yards and a touchdown. Both guys are worth picking up. *Enter semi-funny one-liner here* FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Stat Boy Saturday: How Much Does Winter Weather Really Decrease Offense?

2008-11-29T11:55:00.000-08:00

**NFL Stadium Factors**
Team	Stadium	Point	Pass	Rush
Baltimore Ravens	M&T Bank Stadium	1.20	1.04	1.09
Houston Texans	Reliant Stadium	1.14	1.13	1.01
Minnesota Vikings	H.H.H. Metrodome	1.10	1.06	1.04
Atlanta Falcons	Georgia Dome	1.10	0.94	0.88
St. Louis Rams	Edward Jones Dome	1.06	1.14	1.32
Miami Dolphins	Dolphin Stadium	1.06	1.18	1.15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Raymond James Stadium	1.05	0.89	1.07
San Diego Chargers	Qualcomm Stadium	1.05	1.07	1.07
Philadelphia Eagles	Lincoln Financial Field	1.04	1.07	1.07
Seattle Seahawks	Candlestick Park	1.01	0.90	0.91
New York Jets/Giants	Giants Stadium/Meadowlands	1.01	0.94	0.99
Pittsburgh Steelers	Heinz Field	1.00	0.99	1.03
Indianapolis Colts	RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium	1.00	1.09	1.01
Washington Redskins	FedExField	1.00	1.04	1.07
Oakland Raiders	Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum	1.00	1.16	1.00
Buffalo Bills	Ralph Wilson Stadium	0.99	0.86	1.02
Detroit Lions	Ford Field	0.99	0.99	0.91
Dallas Cowboys	Texas Stadium	0.99	0.98	0.84
San Francisco 49ers	Qwest Field	0.99	1.02	0.85
Arizona Cardinals	University of Phoenix Stadium	0.99	0.98	0.96
Chicago Bears	Soldier Field	0.98	1.00	1.16
Tennessee Titans	LP Field	0.97	1.05	1.20
Kansas City Chiefs	Arrowhead Stadium	0.97	0.94	0.89
Denver Broncos	Invesco Field (Mile High)	0.96	0.98	0.94
Cincinnati Bengals	Paul Brown Stadium	0.95	0.91	0.96
New Orleans Saints	Louisiana Superdome	0.94	1.06	1.08
Cleveland Browns	Cleveland Browns Stadium	0.93	0.90	0.89
Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	0.93	0.96	1.00
Green Bay Packers	Lambeau Field	0.90	0.88	1.04
New England Patriots	Gillette Stadium	0.90	1.02	1.04
Carolina Panthers	Bank of America Stadium	0.89	0.98	0.89

Methodology note: Two teams, the Cardinals and Colts, moved into new stadia during five-year sample used. I discarded this fact, because I was more trying to see if the weather, not the stadium, had an effect. The Browns, Packers, and Patriots are all near the bottom of the points factor, as they should be. But the Panthers last in the league? Surely this had to be a result of an abnormally-high road point scoring trend, right? I realized that with the low sample size (only 24 games worth for all teams, but 52 for the Giants/Jets), there must be a bias in the data. To fix this I switched the road points/passing yards/rushing yards per game with the leave averages over this time, which was 42 points, 409 passing yards, and 245 rushing yards. Here are the adjusted factors.

**NFL Adjusted Stadium Factors**
Team	Stadium	Point	Pass	Rush
Atlanta Falcons	Georgia Dome	1.07	0.99	1.05
Seattle Seahawks	Qwest Field	1.05	1.00	1.02
Minnesota Vikings	H.H.H. Metrodome	1.05	1.05	0.97
Tennessee Titans	LP Field	1.05	1.03	1.00
Kansas City Chiefs	Arrowhead Stadium	1.04	1.04	1.01
St. Louis Rams	Edward Jones Dome	1.04	1.03	1.03
Indianapolis Colts	RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium	1.04	1.08	0.96
Baltimore Ravens	M&T Bank Stadium	1.03	0.99	0.97
Arizona Cardinals	University of Phoenix Stadium	1.03	1.03	0.91
Houston Texans	Reliant Stadium	1.02	0.98	1.01
San Diego Chargers	Qualcomm Stadium	1.02	1.00	1.01
Philadelphia Eagles	Lincoln Financial Field	1.02	1.02	0.98
Detroit Lions	Ford Field	1.02	1.04	0.95
Miami Dolphins	Dolphin Stadium	1.01	1.02	0.96
Cincinnati Bengals	Paul Brown Stadium	1.01	0.98	1.01
Denver Broncos	Invesco Field (Mile High)	1.00	1.00	1.04
Buffalo Bills	Ralph Wilson Stadium	1.00	0.88	1.04
San Francisco 49ers	Candlestick Park	0.99	1.02	0.95
New York Jets/Giants	Giants Stadium/Meadowlands	0.99	0.94	1.01
Dallas Cowboys	Texas Stadium	0.99	1.05	0.94
Oakland Raiders	Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum	0.98	1.01	0.96
Pittsburgh Steelers	Heinz Field	0.98	0.98	1.01
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Raymond James Stadium	0.97	0.92	1.02
Washington Redskins	FedExField	0.97	0.97	0.99
Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	0.96	0.96	1.02
New Orleans Saints	Louisiana Superdome	0.96	1.02	0.94
Chicago Bears	Soldier Field	0.96	0.98	0.98
Green Bay Packers	Lambeau Field	0.96	0.94	1.00
New England Patriots	Gillette Stadium	0.94	0.99	0.93
Carolina Panthers	Bank of America Stadium	0.92	0.98	0.93
Cleveland Browns	Cleveland Browns Stadium	0.90	0.92	1.06

What do you know, the Panthers are still at the bottom of the list. I would call that an aberration¹. Four of the bottom five teams are all in snowy, cold-weather portions of the U.S. Four of the top seven teams are all in domes. See a trend? Yes, the wintry weather does affect offenses, especially in the selected cold-weather stadia. If you have Braylon Edwards, don't be afraid to bench him for someone such as Anthony Gonzalez during the fantasy playoffs. When Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte put up sub-par games when the Packers and Bears face each other in Week 16, don't say I didn't warn you. ____ ¹I update a list of these stadium factors weekly on my Web site, using data from 2005 through the current week. The latest edition has the Panthers exactly average in the points factor. We would never shoot ourselves in the leg. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Week 13 Name Calling

2008-11-28T18:15:00.000-08:00

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. Ahh yes, Thanksgiving. A great time of the year. Except for football, especially this year. Could we please have at least one competitive game? All three games, blowouts, though I wouldn't expect anything less from the Lions; they're part of the holiday tradition—turkey, stuffing, and the Lions getting creamed. Shame on you Arizona. You were the best shot to give us a good game. But no, you failed. Can't you see that I'm trying to win one million dollars? Ranting aside, I hope everyone had a safe and happy Thanksgiving. Who You Gonna Call Matt Ryan/QB Atlanta: After two straight weeks of touchdown-less football, you know Matty Ice is itching to get back on the proverbial horse. And what better time to do so than against the Chargers, who rank last in the league in pass defense? Ryan has had at least 248 yards in four of his last five weeks; a couple of touchdowns this week would make him fantasy gold for owners. Lance Moore/WR New Orleans: Talk about riding a hot streak. Moore, a big piece in the Saints' offensive puzzle, has had nearly 300 receiving yards and four touchdowns his past three games. You do the math. Drew Brees lit up the the Bucs in Week One, throwing for 343 yards and a couple of scores; he's a good bet to do so again. Ted Ginn Jr./WR Miami: Not too often I suggest starting him. But I'm going against the grain this time. With Greg Camarillo done for the year due to a sprained knee, Ginn is the Dolphins most viable threat at wide receiver. Couple that with a weak Rams' pass defense and Chad Pennington coming off of a big performance last week against rival New England, Ginn could be huge. Side note: Anthony Fasano is also starter-worthy this week. On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always call, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to start some dude over LDT): RBs against Detroit and Kansas City, WRs against Miami and Seattle, QBs against Detroit and San Diego. Who You Not Gonna Call Willie Parker/RB Pittsburgh: I managed to put my Steelers bias aside, for this week anyway. I simply don't trust the Steelers running game. Parker couldn't do anything last week against a Bengals defense that got even worse as the game went on (they lost two DE's, Robert Geathers and Frosty Rucker), and I can't see a reverse in that trend against a Patriots defense that gave up just 3.5 YPC to Thomas Jones two weeks ago and a mere 37 yards to Ronnie Brown last week. Nose tackle Vince Wilfork will be licking his chops just as I'm sure he did around the Thanksgiving table. Not On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always caller ID check and ignore, once again using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to bench Drew Brees): RBs against the Ravens, Oakland WRs, QBs against Indianapolis

An Update On Our Dear Friend Gage Arnold

2008-11-26T15:10:00.000-08:00

Wondering what that one random guy who posts like every other solar eclipse has been up to? This just popped up on his myspace:

Gage is going to see twilight Mood: joyus

Apparently our blog buddy is so caught up with a teenage girl fad that he can't even spell words correctly. Or give a few minutes a week to post and hand out some HAIRY's awards. Because he's too caught up with this. Bench that poor heart.

SJax, Reggie Bush: Will they play?

2008-11-26T12:45:00.000-08:00

Steven Jackson: Jackson returned to practice Wednesday and should be good to go on Sunday against the Dolphins. On Monday coach Jim Haslett said of Jackson that he was "optimistic" Jackson would return. In his six games before he was injured against the Cardinals, Jackson had a per-game line of 24 touches, 128 total yards and 16.8 fantasy points. In Weeks Four through Seven, he averaged 158 yards, 23.8 fantasy points and had four touchdowns in those three games. Start him with confidence. Reggie Bush: After missing the past four games due to a left knee injury, Bush feels he can return this week, saying, "I definitely feel like this is the week." The Times-Picayune reported that his workload in practice has increased each of the past two week. In his first six games, before he was injured in the Carolina game, Bush was averaging a solid 20 touches for 100 yards and a score, along with 15 fantasy points per game. That said, Bush isn't a great start this week due to his matchup against the Buccaneers, who give up just 11.5 fantasy points to opposing running backs. He's a low-end No. 2 back and a good flex play this week. We think it's just a coincidence that two quarterbacks named "Brady" are out for the year. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Weekend Recap: Week 12

2008-11-24T18:44:00.000-08:00

I hate irrelevancy. Call it a pet peeve of mine. The unimportant, insignificant, and unnecessary. But enough about the Lions' offense. There was one thing I thought was truly irrelevant: North Dakota (no offense North Dakotans, all five of you). Seriously, what have they ever done? Heck, at least South Dakota gave us Mount Rushmore. I still argue that the only reason we bought that land was so that the border between Canada and the United States went straight across. "Was" is the operative word in that past sentence though. All that changed when I saw this box score. Yes, North Dakota defeated its arch rival South Dakota 34-31 in OT last Saturday. Nothing better than a little extra Saturday Dakota rivalry. I don't want to stray to far from the main point of this, irrelevancy. We at this humble blog don't give you the fat and grisle. We give you the meat. That's no different this week. - Chalk it up to inexperience. Brady Quinn was pretty awful against Houston, but hey, it's bound to happen. I don't agree with the benching of him (that's another can of worms), but he will remain the starter in Cleveland. - Ditto with Donovan McNabb, sans the inexperience excuse. Chalk his poor performance up to a really good Ravens defense. - Who would've thought the Chiefs/Bills game would be the highest scoring game of the week? Tony Gonzalez is surely glad to see the jump start to Kansas City's O. He's had 25 catches and three touchdowns the past three games. And being the most dependable target, you can bet he'll keep up a similar production the rest of the year. - Matt Cassel has been phenomenal as of late, throwing for another 400-yard game. He's matured really quickly and has made excellent decisions. Years sitting behind Tom Brady and being coached by "Hoodie" will do that to a player. You can be sure Cassel's wallet will thank them both of them in the offseason. - Jacksonville hasn't been able to get a consistent running game going all season. To sum it all up, look at Maurice Jones-Drew's rushing totals from Sunday. Three carries for four yards. Major risk and at this point, little reward. - The Colts' offense is finally banging on all cylinders. Big boosts to Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez. - If Clinton Portis can rush for nearly 150 yards hurt, I can't wait to see what he can again do when healthy. [I apologize for not putting up a Name Calling article on Friday. I was giving Tom Cruise acting lessons.] Al Roker is our hero. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

McNabb to Start Thursday

2008-11-24T15:33:00.000-08:00

After being benched for Kevin Kolb at halftime after turning the ball over three times on Sunday, Eagles' quarterback Donovan McNabb will keep his starting job for next week. So have no fear; confidently start Donovan. Andy Reid knows that he'll bounce back and that good times are coming! Says the head coach: "Sometimes you have to step back to step forward in a positive way and Donovan will do that." McNabb owners really shouldn't be too worried at all. There's a very simple solution, as Reid explains. "I need to coach better. Donovan needs to play better and the guys around Donovan need to play better." If you think that all that is possible for the 5-5-1 Philadelphia squad, then keep DMac in your starting line up. And for the rest of the year? Well, McNabb's starting role seems secure. After being questioned about how the position will look for the rest of the season, Reid consulted with Terrell Owens and answered, "As I sit here right now, he's my quarterback," Reid said. "I'm telling you he's the starting quarterback. If I thought different, then I'd start the other guy." Well thanks for clearing that up Andy. We'll always be lovin' you the way we wanted too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Stat Boy Saturday: How Do Backups-Turned-Starters Perform?

2008-11-22T10:15:00.000-08:00

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week, with the injury of Earnest Graham, he throws out the charts and graphs dealing with a backup's performance after he gains the starting role. It's that time of year again. Remember last year? Three running backs who produced as top-15 running backs, after their incumbent running back got injured—Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman in the case of Earnest Graham (whom himself might be one of those to allow a backup major opportunities this year); Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn for Ryan Grant; and LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes for Justin Fargas. As just noted, Earnest Graham was placed on the IR and Warrick Dunn was subsequently proclaimed as the next pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson. Even I succumbed to this, choosing Dunn as my mancrush of the week (which haven't been posted yet, by the way). Conservatives will point to Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Kenneth Darby, and Antonio Pittman as reasons to why backups-turned-starters (BTS) never perform. Others will point to the three backs mentioned above, Graham, Grant, and Fargas. Who is right? And does the experience of a BTS even matter? Looking at every top-30 back's game-by-game logs from 2005-2007, I chose 22 running back whose game-by-game carries showed that they were a BTS. My criteria for choosing these 22 was that they must have single digit carries in a significant amount of games, or in three or more games. I then lowered that to 18, getting rid of those who had carry totals that fluctuated every week, and found 19 stretches of games in which they looked to go from a backup to a starter. One player had two of these, hence the 19 (which I'll simply call players and not stretches). Yes, it's selective sampling, but it beats just looking at games started or not started, because some players in timeshares tend to get a starting job midway through the year but have the number of attempts stay the same, which is not what I was looking for. Here are the charts showing the average amount of attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and fantasy points for each number game started. There were 17 players in the first game played, 17 in the second, 16 in the third, then 14, 11, 9, 7, 7, 6, 2, and finally 2 in the 11th game played. Realize that the 10th and 11th games should definitely not be looked at due to the low number of players, but I included them anyway. (For reference, the pre-starter per-game averages of these 19 players was 6.4 attempts, 30.2 rushing yards, 0.2 touchdowns, and 5.8 fantasy points.) Click on pictures for larger view. Although the graphs look inconsistent, check out what each dot actually means. The lowest average of attempts was just less than 16, yards just less than 70, and fantasy points just less than 12. I suggest a BTS's fourth game as the proving point. The fourth game had higher stats than every game before it except in fantasy points, where a BTS's second game had .13 more fantasy points than his fourth. So in conclusion, you can trust backups-turned-starters on your fantasy team. You won't know exactly what stats they'll put up, but you know that they'll put up No. 2 or even No. 1 running back numbers. That's more reason as to why Warrick Dunn will be the next ~~pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson~~ Earnest Graham. Ironic, huh? We'd take a homeless man to the movies, too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.

Earnest Graham's "Status in Question," Says Gruden

2008-11-17T16:50:00.000-08:00

"His status for the rest of the season is very much in question. [I]t doesn't look like he'll play anytime soon." Those are the words of Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden regarding Earnest Graham, who was injured on his first carry in the Bucs' 19-13 win Sunday. The loss of Graham for possibly the rest of the year is huge for the Bucs and my two fantasy leagues in which I own him; the Fantasy Hall-of-Famer was a top-20 running back, even including his one-carry performance on Sunday. His absence paves the way for Warrick Dunn, who gained 118 total yards on 24 touches Sunday without Graham and is averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game on the year, and Cadillac Williams, who will be returning this week against the Lions. Dunn shoots up into a slot in the top-25 running backs with Graham gone. Right now I'd rank Caddy somewhere in the low 30's among RBs, but he's a huge risk/reward player and is a better waiver wire option than current backups such as Rudi Johnson and LeRon McLain. Think of Dunn as someone around the BenJarvus Green-Ellis range (before Sammy Morris comes back) and Caddy as someone near the Ricky Williams range.

Steven Jackson Already Ruled Out For Week 12

2008-11-17T15:38:00.000-08:00

Remember this?

"So to be clear: I am playing. Be ready."

Jackson titled that blog post on his website, "Game On." He posted the message before week nine. We can officially add S-Jax to the ever growing list of unreliable sources of NFL news. Because 16 days later, Jackson is nowhere close to 100 percent. The Rams have already come out this week and said that he's not going to be ready for this next week's game. Clearly they are positive he's not good to go. And when a player is positively not good to go, it's not good. As in, that's my car rolling down the hill, not good. It gets worse. Jim Haslett said doctors "feel he should be out this week, and rest him, and see what happens next week." Translation: That's your fantasy team rolling out of the playoffs, not good. Don't expect anything from him anytime soon. No matter what his blog says. We knew that there were ties in the NFL. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Weekend Recap: Week 11

2008-11-17T14:45:00.000-08:00

I had to do a double-take. Nay, a triple take. I couldn't believe my ears. No, I hadn't just heard the phrase, "The Lions have won." It was this, Donovan McNabb's comments in his press conference after the Eagles 13-13 tie with the Bengals yesterday. One has to wonder, what did McNabb think happened when a game ended in a tie? Foosball tournament to determine the winner? What does this have to do with fantasy football? Nothing, nothing at all. I just couldn't hold back. - What more can you say about DeAngelo Wiiliams? In his past three games, he's had at least 100 yards rushing and a YPC (yards per carry) of 6.4, 7.4, and 8.6 each game. Get out the hose because this kid is on fire. (I apologize for that terrible joke.) Williams has firmly cemented himself as the No. 1 back in Carolina, and though Jonathan Stewart will get his fair share of carries, Williams is the main guy. - Let's stay with the Carolina theme, but this time on the opposite side of the spectrum. Jake Delhomme has been awful as of late, and it wasn't because of stiff competition. He's gone a combined 17-for-48 (35%), 180 yards, one TD, and five INTs against the Raiders and Lions. Bench him until he rebounds. - I recommended that you sit Steve Slaton this week. I was wrong, WAY wrong. He tore up a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense, and it appears that the rookie has caught a second wind. He's an average No. 2 RB or a great flex play from here on out. - At this point, it's overkill, but all should fear the Cardinals' passing attack. Another game, another offensive rout by Kurt Warner (395 passing yards), Anquan Boldin (186 receiving yards), and Larry Fitzgerald (151 yards receiving). If your opponent has any of these guys in his/her lineup, look out—it could be a rough week. - Ben Roethlisberger rebounded quite nicely yesterday against the Chargers. Granted, the Chargers have had a lot of issues in defending the pass this season, but Big Ben made good decisions and got the ball out of his hand quickly. That's a recipe for success, and that's exactly what happened to the Steelers (all controversy aside). - Matt Hasselbeck returned this week, but he's still at least another week away from making a real impact. He struggled, throwing three interceptions, and only Deion Branch had more than four receptions. It's hard to find fantasy gold in the desert ... er ... Seattle's offense. - One piece of injury news to pass along. An ankle injury is likely to keep Earnest Graham out for the season. Warrick Dunn will take over as the starter with Cadillac Williams slowly getting into the mix. Tosten stole my line. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Stat Boy Saturday: Looking Ahead to the Playoffs, Part II

2008-11-15T10:30:00.000-08:00

**Fan. Points Correlation**
Pos.	r	r2
QBs	0.30	0.09
RBs	0.23	0.05
WRs	-0.04	0.00

As with the previous article on this subject, there's no meaningful connection between regular season and fantasy playoff performance. Wide receivers' playoff production is essentially a pick-a-number-from-a-hat situation—you can't predict it whatsoever. Now, here're the correlations if you split each position up into three tiers—the top 12, middle 12, and bottom 12 in the 36-player quarterback sample, or equivalent to the QBs ranked Nos. 1 through 4, Nos. 5 through 8, and Nos. 9 through 12; and the top 15, middle 15, and bottom 15 in the 45-player running back and wide receiver sample, or equivalent to the top 5, etc. You might want to take this with a grain of salt as the sample size is so small, by the way.

**Correlation of Tiers**
Pos.	r	r2
	Top Tier
QBs	0.58	0.34
RBs	0.02	0.00
WRs	0.12	0.02

	Middle Tier
QBs	0.45	0.20
RBs	0.32	0.10
WRs	-0.12	0.01

	Bottom Tier
QBs	-0.25	0.06
RBs	-0.43	0.19
WRs	-0.48	0.23

One thing first: All positions in the bottom tier have a negative r. This is most likely due to all the players (such as Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Ladell Betts, et al) whose late-season performance vaulted them into the top 15. The highest correlations go to the quarterbacks, but an r-squared of .34 still is not very significant in predicting a player's playoff performance. What does all this mean, then? It means that there will still be those fantasy playoff flukes—Billy Volek circa 2004—that raise a borderline playoff team in your fantasy league to the championship. It means that there will still be those fantasy playoff busts—Chad ~~Johnson~~ ~~Ocho Cinco~~ Johnson circa 2007—that screw over the No. 1 seed to a first-round loss to the fourth-ranked team. It means that there will be fantasy experts that'll be berated for ranking Player A over Player B, after Player A throws three picks and no touchdowns and Player B throws for 300 yards and two scores, even though the stats say that it's extraordinarily difficult to predict a player's playoff performance. And it means that, once again, you'll lose before reaching the finals due to your No. 1 pick's putting up single-digit fantasy points for the first time all year. It happens.

Week 11 Name Calling

2008-11-15T09:47:00.000-08:00

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. For once, I'm the one asking the questions. I've been watching college football all day on ESPN, and caught a glimpse of some of the NCAA games tonight. I know it's commonplace in college sports, but why do some powerhouses always play a Division III team that has more letters in its name than it will points by the time the games are said and done tonight (case in point, this school)? What do the coaches of the Division III team say when they're going against North Carolina and Duke? What kind of pep talk can the coach of SE Northern Maine State University give to his team? What answer is there? I'm sure you're looking for answers. Probably not to my question, but as to who you should start or sit this weekend. Who You Gonna Call Greg Camarillo/WR Miami: Ted Ginn Jr. is expected to be covered by Nnamdi Asomugha this week , leaving Camarillo to go against whatever No. 2 CB the Raiders can find out of the junkyard. Camarillo isn't going to have a 10-catch, 150-yard day, but he's a solid possession receiver who has had less than three catches a mere one time this season. Tyler Thigpen/QB Kansas City: Geez, I can hardly believe I'm saying this, but Thigpen isn't a bad option this week. After a horrendous start to the year, he's thrown for 250-plus yards and two-plus touchdowns in two of the last three weeks. Those games came against the Jets and Chargers, who rank 27th and 32nd in pass defense respectively. The Saints, who Kansas City faces this week, rank 26th in that category. They also won't have the services of Mike McKenzie, who is out for the season due to injury. DeAngelo Williams/RB Carolina: Hmm....new week, but the same reasons as last. The Lions are awful on defense, and with Delhomme in a bit of a funk, you can bet the Panthers will pound the ball a lot. On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always call, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to start some dude over LDT): RBs against Detroit and Kansas City, WRs against Miami and Seattle, QBs against Detroit and San Diego. Who You Not Gonna Call Maurice Jones-Drew/RB Jacksonville: One defensive line you don't want to face is the Titans'. They're eighth in the NFL in run defense, giving up just over 90 yards per game. And although the Jags will be getting Brad Meester back this week, he'll get the ever so warm welcoming of facing Albert Haynesworth. Here's another fact: MJD has only ran over 70 yards three times this season. And the last time the Jags faced the Titans, he only ran for 13 yards on five carries. In a word, avoid. Steve Slaton/RB Houston: The matchup isn't bad, but it appears that Slaton has hit the "rookie wall"—that's when a rookie's body begins to break down because he isn't used to the constant beating each week and the longer season the NFL has compared to college. He isn't a horrible play, but there are safer options than him for this week. Not On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always caller ID check and ignore, once again using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to bench Drew Brees): RBs against the Ravens, Oakland WRs, QBs against Indianapolis

Straight Outta the Mancavedom: Week 11 Mancrushes

2008-11-14T20:29:00.000-08:00

Is there a better activity in the world than chilling down in the man cave discussing football and girls? Red-blooded American males say it in unison, "No." Of course not. This is why every Thursday (or in this week's case, late Friday) FFWWH will let you all in on our own couch talk about football. And girls. And football playing girls.But mostly, football playing guys. So here's our week eleven bromances. Zach Fein They say rookie quarterbacks aren’t supposed to be fantasy worthy. Yet this year, two have debunked that myth—and one is my Week 11 mancrush. Matt Ryan has had 15-plus fantasy points in each of the past five games, with an average of 16.3 fantasy points. In that time frame he’s had 248 passing yards per game, with nine touchdowns and only three interceptions. This week Ryan faces the Broncos and their defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Fantasy gold. Alex Kozora Sure, most weeks our mancrushes are someone fairly obvious: the Kurt Warners, Drew Brees(es?) and anyone playing the Raiders of the world. Instead of that, I introduce you a guy that hasn't been talked about much....yet. That guy is Jason Hill. Who? Wide receiver for the 49ers, and he has an opportunity to showcase what he can bring to the table this week. He started to showcase that last week, hauling in seven catches for 84 yards in the 49ers offense led by Shaun Hill, who will continue to start this week and likely for the rest of the year. [Editor's note: A late stat change lowered Hill's totals to six catches for 82 yards. The missing catch went to Isaac Bruce.] Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson? Teetering towards irrelevancy. Josh Morgan and Arnaz Battle? Injured and not going to play. Dominique Zeigler? Need I say more? The Rams have been torched the past two games with Kurt Warner throwing all over them and the Jets putting up 40 by halftime. Tosten Burks Well....we're still waiting on this one. We've selected our Cabinet. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

News From Ball Street

2008-11-12T15:00:00.000-08:00

Ball Street-Wall Street. It rhymes, see what we did there? Here we watch the stocks (ehh, ehh?) of players who are rising and falling, and decide whether you should target these shooting and sinking stars. Clever, I know. In the same way that you scan the free agent pool at this point in the season for guys who will give you reliable involvement down the stretch, it's time to make some deadline deals to stock up on high opportunity, high impact players. You need to search for guys you know will get a chance to succeed and pick a few who you think will follow through on that promise. Think Cliff Bars. You know they'll get the opportunity to produce and you are fairly confident that they will. Savor, or trash, the oat-nutty goodness of the following Ball Street stocks. Stock Up Willis McGahee/RB Baltimore—Twenty-five carries, 112 yards, and two touchdowns shoot McGahee back to fantasy prominence right? Well, the performance didn't seem to excite the Baltimore coach all too much. The Monday after Willis's big game, Jim Harbaugh reinforced that the Ravens plan to continue to vary their running back usage from week to week, all depending on the gameplan. McGahee hasn't shaken the time share yet. Course of Action: Sell Tennesee Titans Passing Offense—So this past weekend the Chicago Bears became the first NFL team to face the Titans with some remnant of resistance towards the two-headed Tennessee backfield touch tandem (alliteration jubilation!). The Bears made Jeff Fisher's crew beat them with the pass—and they did. However, not many teams can stop Chris Johnson and LenDale White, so don't expect the Titans offense to be spearheaded by the pass very often. For Pete's sake, Kerry Collins hasn't had a two-touchdown or a 200-yard game once the rest of this season. Course of Action: Sell Kevin Smith/RB Detroit—Did you really believe Rudi Johnson would be relevant in Detroit for very long? Over the past four weeks, Smith's touches have steadily increased in number and he's been making the most out of it. The only game over that stretch in which Kevin didn't score was against the Redskins, and he climaxed this past weekend with his first career 100-yard game, which he paired with another rushing touchdown, on 23 carries. Plus, there's this from Marinelli: "We wanted to get him a full boatload of runs and I think he showed some real spring and some real life." You can now add Smith to the overflowing group of stud rookie runners. Course of Action: Buy Stock Down Jake Delhomme/QB Carolina—Try your absolute hardest to ignore the 12.3 passer rating against the 2-7 Oakland Raiders and focus on the previous five weeks in which Delhomme had two scores on four different occasions. No, no, I said brush back the 72 yards and four interceptions on Sunday. Hey seuss, bury the 26% completion percentage! Can't do it? I doubt his owner can either. Which is why it's the perfect time to grab his, aside from Week Ten, solid production as a legitimate fantasy starter down the stretch for those in need of one. Course of Action: Buy Julius Jones/RB Seattle—Remember when Maurice Morris was a name worth knowing? Ya, I don't either. And his one carry this past week didn't stir up any old memories. Julius Conehead's 16 carries for 88 yards, a 5.5 average, are helping him emerge as the feature back in Seattle, and with Matt Hasselbeck returning, that's a decent situation to be in. Expect some solid production from here on out. Course of Action: Buy Bobby Engram/WR Seattle—Much like JuJo, Engram will enormously benefit from having Matt Hasselbeck back in the lineup. Koren Robinson can hardly be confused as a solid NFL starter let alone a fantasy starter, so don't let his decent output week 10 fool you. Engram is the guy you want. The epitomy of an underneath outlet, he will rack up the receptions, producing yet unearthed in 2008 fantasy gold during the playoffs. Course of Action: Buy

Running the Wire

2008-11-11T08:28:00.000-08:00

Screwing League Mates Over By Stealing The Missing Pieces Of The Puzzle That They Need 101 You can feel it coming. Playoffs. Whether you're expecting to be looking in from the outside as you knife Steven Jackson in the lymph node or sitting pretty on the top of the standings, riding BenJarvus Green-Ellis (who seriously is in need of a nickname ... I say BenJGe, pronounced Benjee) to a No. 1 seed, you know the final draw is fast approaching. So you gotta prepare. And the most efficient place to gear up is on the wire. Now you are not looking for high potential guys, players who look like they could break out one week. It is about finding diamonds in the rough who are looking to be more involved in their offenses during the home stretch, rushers who are going to carry more of a load for their team, quarterbacks who are being leaned on by their team more, wideouts who are increasingly being targeted. Start mining folks, start mining. Gold Wire Pickups Shaun Hill/QB San Francisco—I liked him before his break out performance on ESPN, I swear. In his first start in J.T. O'Sullivan-replacement duty, he had a passer rating of 102.3 with one score and no picks. That was a good sign. Then on Monday Night he had two touchdowns in the first half before the Niners collapsed. And from the cliché argument logic department, Hill is the starter in a Mike Martz offense, and he seemingly has that role secured. Hill is a cheap option who I think can be a serviceable starter—yes, starter—in bigger leagues for the rest of the year. Mark Bradley/WR Kansas City—Tyler Thigpen has looked amazingly impressive since he's become the full time starter in KC. No, really. Six touchdowns in those three games and a 102.9 passer rating over that stretch to boot. If you ignore the three losses, one could argue that the Chiefs have definitely found their franchise QB. But I'm assuming Thigpen has already been added in most leagues, so I'll move to the next best part of my little KC fantasy mancrush, Mark Bradley. Over the course of Thigpen's starts, Bradley has led all Kansas City wide receivers in receptions. Bowe seems to be the focus of defenses, allowing Bradley to be the main target after Tony Gonzalez. Peyton Hillis/RB Denver—He's the only Broncos' running back who's still alive. You gotta take a flier on the 250-pound, 4.58-running white guy. Copper Wire Pickups Koren Robinson/WR Seattle—He's put up two straight games with four receptions and a touchdown, but with Matt Hasselbeck expected to be back Week 11 I just don't see him remaining the No. 1 option ahead of Bobby Engram. And the No. 2 guy in the Seahawks passing offense is not a guy you want on your fantasy team. Dustin Keller/TE New York (Jets)—The rookie caught six passes for 107 yards and a score on Sunday against the Rams, but his second highest yardage total on the year is 41. I suspect that the production was more due to Cotchery's shoulder injury holding him back than Keller emerging as Brett Favre's new favorite underneath option. Jason Hill/WR San Francisco—The main beneficiary of Shaun Hill's nice little primetime performance was sophomore Jason Hill who put up a nice little stat line of his own, seven catches and 84 yards. Hill, whom Mike Singletary and receivers coach Jerry Sullivan like, may have grabbed the No. 3 spot on the depth chart away from Arnaz Battle, but Isaac Bruce and Josh Morgan are still the only two San Fran pass catchers who really have much value. Chicken Wire Pickups Matt Spaeth/TE Pittsburgh—No. The 6'7'' tight end had six receptions for 53 yards against the Colts. Who cares? He never caught more than one pass in a game the rest of the year. No. Dantrell Savage/RB Kansas City—He led the Chiefs running game against the Chargers, with 44 yards on 12 carries. You gotta do more than that if you want some touches when LJ returns next week and Charles gets his health back. Good cop is over. You have the right and the responsibility to frickin ask us your fantasy questions. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Weekend Recap: Week 10

2008-11-10T14:52:00.000-08:00

I don't know about you, but I'm tired of it. I'm tired of Merril Hoge. It's the same every week. He makes the same corny joke every time Adrian Peterson breaks off a nice run. "They call him the cashier because he makes you pay." I think my head will explode if he makes that joke one more time. And how can we forget his obsession with saying the word "factor back". I swear, if there was a Merril Hoge dictionary, that'd be the only word in it. Not to mention his insane Steelers bias. That has its time and place, and I don't always mind someone giving props to my favorite team, but he goes a bit overboard if you ask me. Plus, he's insane. I know one thing fantasy footballers are tired of: poor fantasy advice. Now, you shouldn't take what anyone says and be totally committed to using it. But man, it stinks when someone's advice you've listened to backfires. We've all been there. I'll be giving you the correct fantasy scoop from Week 10 ... I hope. - Let's go back to Thursday, shall we? Kellen Winslow was the main beneficiary the change in quarterback (from Derek Anderson to Brady Quinn, for those who have been living under a rock the past week). Winslow had 10 receptions, 111 yards and hit paydirt twice. The rest of the Browns receivers had 13 receptions 128 yards and zero touchdowns. Kudos to those of you who bought low on Winslow. - Kevin Smith is officially the main back in Detroit. While he isn't the greatest option—after all, he plays for the Lions—the team seems committed to giving him the rock (23 carries on Sunday). It's still going to take a little while for Daunte Culpepper to get comfortable with the offense, so expect a more run-focused gameplan. The last time that sentence could be said by a sane person was ... never! - So much for Kerry Collins being just a "game manager." He fell just shy of 300 yards, something he wasn't done since Week 17 of 2005. I wouldn't get too eager though. Normally, the Titans will be able to run the ball. And normally, Collins won't eclipse the 230 yard mark. - The Seahawks offense showed small signs of life last week, and they should get a boost with the return of Deion Branch and Matt Hasselbeck, both of whom are currently expected to play Week 11. - Jake Delhomme threw four interceptions against Oakland and the Panthers still won by double-digits. Just sayin'. (Hey, I need a section exclaiming how awful the Raiders are to reach my quota.) - The Bills are on a downward spiral. I'd still start Marshawn Lynch, but wouldn't advise the same about Trent Edwards. We'll never leave you for the Jets. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.

Adam Schefter Gets Something Wrong, Willie Parker Did Not Tear His Labrum, Pigs in California Grow Wings

2008-11-09T21:41:00.000-08:00

It rained all day today in San Diego. Two monks got into a fight near the tomb of Jesus Christ. And Adam Schefter reported false information about Willie Parker's injury situation. There is no doubt in my mind that the world is coming to an end. When Schefter blogged that Parker had a torn labrum, I noddingly took note. There was no reason for doubt. No sign of potential wrongness. But now Parker is denying the report, saying that no one has ever told him that he has a torn shoulder muscle. And he, along with the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, believes that he will play again next week against the Chargers. Now that is cool and all, start FWP in all your leagues, he was a stud before the injury, if Mewelde Moore can roll then Parker should dominate, ya, ya all that jazz, but the real story here is Schefter's misinformation. Who does the world turn to for reliable NFL news now? Chris Mortensen? I can hear the screams already. John Clayton? Jared Allen laughs at that. Jay Glazer? A guy with a goatee is at the forefront of professional football reporting? May God reincarnate Peter Gammons as an NFL writer. Tomorrow. We'd love to hear about how we won the lottery in Haiti. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

A Lazy Man's Guide to Week Ten

2008-11-08T17:12:00.000-08:00

Everything you need to know for week ten, consolidated in one spot for all Penn State fans out there too emotionally exhausted to navigate this blog on their own. News: Ryan Torain and Steven Jackson updates and complaints. Injury break down done by some other people who are still good even though they aren't us. Marques Colston finally all the way back from injury? Coaches think so. Darren McFadden isn't playing this week and could be done for the year. Baltimore will go with a three-way timeshare and split touches among Ray Rice, Le'Ron McClain, and Willis McGahee this weekend. Analsyis: Tim Hightower has risen, Reggie Wayne has fallen, and other players who have become more and less valuable this week. Kozora and Fein want a threesome with the Carolina Panthers + my bromances for week 10. A-Koz's start 'em, sit 'em. Ignore playoff schedules, says the stat guy. No, Daunte Culpepper is not all of a sudden a fantasy starter, and other shiz from the early Sunday game previews here. Sit Peyton Manning, and other can't miss blogness in the late sunday game previews over here. The Giants vs Eagles matchup is the game of the week, and other prime time game preview stuff in this area. That's it for the week folks. Enjoy the stench. We know how to solve the economic crisis. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

Da Games: Early Sundayers

2008-11-08T16:56:00.000-08:00

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup. A decently-sized bit of news occurred this week. The United States of America elected an African-American President. So now we're hip. Interestingly, another thing that happened was my reading this GQ article on making black friends. And the "re-segregation" of America. And modern day racism. There's multiple sides of every story. George tells Suzan that he can't go out tonight because he's gotta help Jerry move his friend, but then the next day Elaine sees Suzan at Bloomingdales and they get to talking, and Elaine says that that play she went to last night with George, Jerry, and Kramer was really fun, and Suzan comes back and slaps George. Or something. Everybody's got a different angle. Bringing a new one to the fantasy football media scene is us with our week ten game forecasts.

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Chad Pennington, Seneca Wallace RB— Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams, Julius Jones WR— Greg Camarillo, Ted Ginn Jr, Bobby Engram TE— Anthony Fasano, John Carlson Key Stat 2— Only two teams have given up more fantasy points to opposing QBs and WRs than the Seahawks. Our Take Tosten Burks— Miami should dominate this one. Hasselbeck isn't coming back most likely for another week and no one else on the Hawks is worth a start either. Play the Miami running backs and Greg Camarillo. Ginn still isn't being utilized consistently enough to have real fantasy value. Zach Fein— Don't play anyone on the Seahawks. Pennington, Brown, and Camarillo are start in standard leagues. Alex Kozora— Chad Pennington and Ronnie Brown are likely to be the only two people anyone would be confident in starting this week. The Seahawks are still Matt Hasselbeck-less, I expect them to still stall in that department.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Aaron Rodgers, Gus Ferrotte RB— Adrian Peterson, Ryan Grant WR— Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Bernard Berrian TE— Visanthe Shiancoe Key Stat 51.2— Since 2006, Donald Driver has had five 100-yard games. He's averaged only 51.2 receiving yards in the game following that 100-yarder. Our Take Tosten Burks— I like the Packers passing game here. Green Bay knows they can't run on the Vikes so they'll throw all day, especially with James Jones back (I think, last week he was declared inactive after practicing all week) helping them open up the offense even more. Zach Fein— Grant is barely a flex play in 12-team leagues. Berrian is a top-10 receiver this week and the best in this game, despite what Tosten put in the "Fantasy Impact Players" section. Don't play Frerotte or Driver either (see Key Stat). Alex Kozora— Ryan Grant owners: proceed with caution. The Vikings run defense is one of the best in the league. I like Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings against a middle-of-the pack Vikings pass defense.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Drew Brees, Matt Ryan RB— Michael Turner, Deuce McCallister WR— Roddy White, Marques Colston, Michael Jenkins, Lance Moore TE— Jeremy Shockey Key Stat 1.28— Since 2005 and updated through last week, there have been 1.28 times as more (actual) points scored by the Falcons and its opponents in the Georgia Dome than by the Falcons and its opponents on the road, the highest in the NFL for any one stadium. Our Take Tosten Burks— I'm thinking shootout. Start all the guys involved in either team's big passing offenses. Zach Fein— Start everyone. Jerious Norwood is worth a look in standard leagues as well. That's all I have to say. Alex Kozora— Matt Ryan is great at home, making him a decent play. Reggie Bush is still out so feel free to deploy Deuce McAllister.

Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Kerry Collins RB— Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, LenDale White WR— none TE— Bo Scaife Key Stat 1/4— Tennessee is ranked No. 1 in points allowed per game, and the Bears are ranked No. 4 in points score per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— Both teams have no passing game to speak of. Wrecks Gross-man kills any chance of Chicago capitalizing on the Titans weaker secondary. This matchup will have tons of running, but to not much avail. Expect a low scoring borefest. Zach Fein— Don't get cute. Bench Kerry Collins, Rex Grossman, and any wide receiver or tight end. Only Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, and LenDale White (in that order) are worth playing. Alex Kozora— I'm not a fan of the Bears offense this week and with good reason. Rex Grossman against the Titans' defensive line = trouble. The Bears have an unusually poor pass defense, likely because they've been decimated by injuries, but I wouldn't start Kerry Collins unless you had to. He doesn't have enough of a ceiling to warrant doing so.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Sage Rosenfels, Joe Flacco RB— Steve Slaton, Ray Rice, Willis McGahee WR— Andre Johnson TE— Owen Daniels, Todd Heap Key Stat 9.4— The Ravens give up 9.4 fantasy points per game to opposing RBs, lowest in the NFL. Our Take Tosten Burks— In a matchup between possibly the NFL's best defense and possibly the NFL's best offense I say... Andre Johnson is the only solid start. I can't trust that either of the two solid running games does anything against the two more than solid run defenses. Ray Rice could surprise though. Zach Fein— Contrary to what Tosten says, I'm starting many players this week: Slaton, McGahee and Rice; A.Johnson, Mason, and Walter; and Owen Daniels, each in order by position. I don't think it's a shootout, but I don't think it's a defensive showdown, either (expect a 20-17 game). Alex Kozoras— As usual Sage Rosenfels' main target will be Andre Johnson. Until Schaub returns, Owen Daniels' and Kevin Walter's values will take a hit.

St. Louis Rams at New York Jets

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Brett Favre, Marc Bulger RB— Thomas Jones, Antonio Pittman WR— Jerricho Cotchery, Donnie Avery, Laveraneus Coles, Torry Holt TE— none to speak of Key Stat(s) 5— St. Louis is in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to each quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Our Take Tosten Burks— Who would've that that Torry Holt would be the fourth most valuable wide receiver in this game? He's still a solid start, as are all the pieces of both sides' passing games, but man has he disappointed. The grandpas of the league have fallen. It doesn't look like he or Marvin Harrison will ever be the same. Zach Fein— Man, did Donnie Avery disappoint me last week. So much for that. For this week, every quarterback and wideout listed above is worth a start. I'm not playing any St. Louis running back this week. Alex Kozora— No Steven Jackson? No Rams run game. Marc Bulger will have to air it out a good bit, and he's worth a start in my mind. I'm a fan of Donnie Avery this week, too. Darrelle Revis is an excellent cornerback, but he'll be focused on Torry Holt all game. That should result in a lot of targets for Avery, who's emerged as the team's No. 2 wide receiver.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Trent Edwards, Matt Cassell RB— Marshawn Lynch, Kevin Faulk, BenJarvus Green-Ellis WR— Randy Moss, Lee Evans, Wes Welker TE— Robert Royal Key Stat 179—Receiving yards by Lee Evans in his past six games against the Patriots, less than 30 per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— Gosh I love being able to talk about a guy named BenJarvus Green-Ellis in a relevant conversation. He and Faulk are both solid with Morris and Jordan still injured. Overall, I think I am most interested in this game, more so than any of the other early Sunday matchups. Zach Fein— If you have Lee Evans, you obviously have to start him, but I'm not too pleased with his matchup (see Key Stat). I'm not playing any of the QBs, though I do like Randy Moss and Wes Welker in this game. All the RBs are worth a start. Alex Kozora— The Bills secondary is in a heap of injuries as they will be without Ashton Youboty and Donte Witner. Randy Moss and Matt Cassel could have potential field days. Trent Edwards and Lee Evans are fringe starters.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions

Fantasy Impact Players QB— David Garrard RB— Maurice Jones-Drew, Kevin Smith, Rudi Johnson, Fred Taylor WR— Calvin Johnson, Matt Jones TE— zilch Key Stat 90— Rushing yards by Fred Taylor in his last five games. Eight running backs had 90 yards just last week. Our Take Tosten Burks— In a battle of two teams who are starting to finally hand the whole steering wheel to their young running backs and revoke their oldies' licenses, MoJo, Smith, the Jags passing game, and Calvin Johnson are all good starts. And—I wouldn't be surprised to see Culpepper have a halfway decent game. I have a feeling... Zach Fein— Oh, how the might have fallen. Fred Taylor is even worth owning in standard leagues. The Lions have allowed the top weekly wideouts on opposing teams to score 14.4 fantasy points per game. Look for Matt Jones to put up numbers similar to that this week. Calvin Johnson, MJD and David Garrard are the only other starts in this game. Alex Kozora— Daunte Culpepper is probably the most talented quarterback the Lions have had in a while, but he's only been with the team for a short time. Not worth a look this week. Fred Taylor has struggled this season, but I think this week he'll pick it up against Lions' run defense that has struggled equally.

Da Games: Prime Timers

2008-11-08T16:54:00.000-08:00

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup.

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning RB— Brian Westbrook, Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward WR— Plaxico Burress, Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson TE— Kevin Boss, Brent Celek Key Stat 21.7—Brian Westbrook's fantasy points per game in his last four games against the Giants. Our Take Tosten Burks— Let me start off by saying that NBC shanks ESPN in the left ventricle in terms of the games they broadcast. I mean seriously, Giants-Eagles or Niners-Cards? It's a joke. I'd also like to point out that in the first Philly game with all of the top three wideouts healthy, Curtis, Brown, and Jackson, Curtis emerged as the favorite target. Curtis's targets and Jackson's big play ability make them very solid options, but Brown looks to be the odd man out. Zach Fein— In this week's marquee matchup, both offenses should go crazy. Look for the G-Men to stay with only one loss in what should be a close game. Besides Brent Celek, everyone in the "Fantasy Impact Players" section is worth a start. Alex Kozora— Game of the week in the NFL. Lots of fantasy studs in this game; can't really sit anyone because of that. I would be hesitant if you were thinking about plugging in Kevin Curtis into your lineup. A potent Giants' pass rush could make the deep ball difficult to perform.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Kurt Warner, Shaun Hill RB— Frank Gore, Tim Hightower WR— Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Isaac Bruce TE— Vernon Davis Key Stat(s) 53.1—In the 10 Monday Night Football games thus far (there were two in Week 1), there have been an average of 53.1 points scored by both teams per game. Our Take Tosten Burks— Start every single Arizona Cardinal. Even Edge! ... Well, no. Don't start Edge. Or any Arizona tight ends. But everyone else should produce. San Fran's horrible. Also, Shaun Hill had a 102.3 passer rating in his first start. Just saying... Zach Fein— Kurt Warner, the two backs, Boldin, and Fitzgerald are all in the top-seven in their respective positions this week. Alex Kozora— The Cardinals are averaging 29 points per game. The 49ers are allowing 28 points per game. You do the math. Frank Gore is the only 49er worth starting this week; I'd have to see how Shaun Hill plays first before I start recommending him.

Da Games: Late Sundayers

2008-11-08T14:09:00.000-08:00

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup.

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore RB— DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart WR— Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, DJ Hackett TE— Dante Rosario, Jeff King Key Stat There is no stat to show how terrible the Raiders are. Our Take Tosten Burks— Yes that's Carolina's depth chart. I don't feel the need to add anything. But if you need me to verbalize this, bench every single Oakland Raider. Zach Fein— If you start any Raider this week, you deserve to lose.

Alex Kozora— This one is simple. Start Delhomme, Steve Smith, and DeAngelo Williams with confidence. Muhsin Muhammad is a good flex play. Jonathan Stewart seems unlikely to play so I'd look for other options if you're thinking about starting him. Bench anyone in black and silver.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning RB— Mewelde Moore, Joseph Addai WR— Reggie Wayne, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward TE— Dallas Clark, Heath Miller Key Stat(s) 1— Indianapolis' rank against opposing QBs in terms of fantasy points allowed. 3— Pittsburgh's rank in that same stat. Our Take Tosten Burks— Indy is slumping and Roth is hurting. As ridiculous as this sounds, Mewelde Moore may be the most productive player fantasy wise in this game. Zach Fein— I don't want to say it, but Peyton Manning is a bench this week. Moore averaged 19.5 fantasy points as a starter, and Indy is sixth-worst against opposing RBs; he's a top-12 back this week. Alex Kozora— Don't expect much from Addai, as I said in my Name Calling article. Mewelde Moore is a solid option, albeit not a great one, especially with Willie Parker declared out. If Big Ben plays, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes will get big boosts.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Philip Rivers, Tyler Thigpen RB— Ladainian Tomlinson, Jamaal Charles, Darren Sproles WR— Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers TE— Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates Key Stat 1— Only one team has given up more fantasy points to opposing QBs than the Chargers. Our Take Tosten Burks— Some updates: Larry Johnson will be sitting this one out. Chambers and Cromartie are back. Both of these defenses look pathetic. Every single guy listed above is a justifiable fantasy start in normal sized leagues. Zach Fein— I know it sounds crazy, but Tyler Thigpen is a top-12 QB this week (see Key Stat). Everyone in the "Fantasy Impact Players" section is a start besides Darren Sproles. Alex Kozora— Similar to the Panthers/Raiders review, start all Chargers. Tyler Thigpen has played pretty well the past two games, but I'm not sold on him yet. I am sold on Tony Gonzalez, however, as San Diego has had a terrible time containing tight ends.

Stat Boy Saturday: Looking at Playoff Schedules—Could It Be Bad?

2008-11-08T12:38:00.000-08:00

**Correlation of Weeks 1-12 and 13-17**
Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.215	0.046
PassYd_all	0.129	0.017
RushYd_all	0.381	0.145
Takeaways	0.111	0.012

Let me help you understand the numbers. The higher the r and r-squared (r2) are, the more related the stat is from the regular season to the playoffs. The r-squared effectively says how many of the teams' playoff performance were predicted based on their regular season performance. An r-squared of .7 or higher is considered good, anything under .5 is considered to be a bad set of data, and anything under .2 is considered to have no correlation whatsoever. In other words, only 4.6 percent of all 192 teams in the sample had a points allowed per game in the fantasy playoffs that could be predicted by their regular season points allowed per game. The numbers show that a team's points allowed, passing yards allowed, and turnovers are essentially a tossup in the fantasy playoffs. Rushing yards allowed does much better than those three, but it still is basically a coin flip as to whether a team's regular season play will predict their playoff performance. The next three tables show the correlations of teams ranked in the top 60 of all 192 teams in the sample (represents the top 10 in any given year), teams ranked in the bottom 60 (bottom 10), and all teams in the middle (teams ranked from 11-21) in each stat based on regular season play. I excluded takeaways because there were many ties and the sample size was too small (there's only 15 or so by a team in a year, so of course it would have a low correlation).

**Top 10 Teams**
Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.231	0.053
PassYd_all	0.088	0.008
RushYd_all	0.133	0.018

**Teams ranked 11-21**
Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.257	0.066
PassYd_all	0.032	0.001
RushYd_all	0.027	0.001

**Bottom 10 Teams**
Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.107	0.012
PassYd_all	-0.048	0.002
RushYd_all	0.019	0.000

Again, no correlation whatsoever. In fact, you get better r's and r's-squared if you use every team than by splitting them up into tiers. By the way, there's a -0.048 r for passing yards allowed by the bottom 10 teams. That means as passing yards allowed in the regular season go up, it goes down in the playoffs. I find that hilarious, even if it's just -0.048. The main point of all of this is don't make trades or assess players based on their fantasy playoff schedule. The stats show that you can't predict at all a team's defensive play based on their early-season performance. Sorry, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, and Lee Evans owners. It doesn't even have to be a question. Just send us an e-mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com