SJax, Reggie Bush: Will they play?

Steven Jackson: Jackson returned to practice Wednesday and should be good to go on Sunday against the Dolphins. On Monday coach Jim Haslett said of Jackson that he was "optimistic" Jackson would return. In his six games before he was injured against the Cardinals, Jackson had a per-game line of 24 touches, 128 total yards and 16.8 fantasy points. In Weeks Four through Seven, he averaged 158 yards, 23.8 fantasy points and had four touchdowns in those three games. Start him with confidence. Reggie Bush: After missing the past four games due to a left knee injury, Bush feels he can return this week, saying, "I definitely feel like this is the week." The Times-Picayune reported that his workload in practice has increased each of the past two week. In his first six games, before he was injured in the Carolina game, Bush was averaging a solid 20 touches for 100 yards and a score, along with 15 fantasy points per game. That said, Bush isn't a great start this week due to his matchup against the Buccaneers, who give up just 11.5 fantasy points to opposing running backs. He's a low-end No. 2 back and a good flex play this week. We think it's just a coincidence that two quarterbacks named "Brady" are out for the year. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Weekend Recap: Week 12

I hate irrelevancy. Call it a pet peeve of mine. The unimportant, insignificant, and unnecessary. But enough about the Lions' offense. There was one thing I thought was truly irrelevant: North Dakota (no offense North Dakotans, all five of you). Seriously, what have they ever done? Heck, at least South Dakota gave us Mount Rushmore. I still argue that the only reason we bought that land was so that the border between Canada and the United States went straight across. "Was" is the operative word in that past sentence though. All that changed when I saw this box score. Yes, North Dakota defeated its arch rival South Dakota 34-31 in OT last Saturday. Nothing better than a little extra Saturday Dakota rivalry. I don't want to stray to far from the main point of this, irrelevancy. We at this humble blog don't give you the fat and grisle. We give you the meat. That's no different this week. - Chalk it up to inexperience. Brady Quinn was pretty awful against Houston, but hey, it's bound to happen. I don't agree with the benching of him (that's another can of worms), but he will remain the starter in Cleveland. - Ditto with Donovan McNabb, sans the inexperience excuse. Chalk his poor performance up to a really good Ravens defense. - Who would've thought the Chiefs/Bills game would be the highest scoring game of the week? Tony Gonzalez is surely glad to see the jump start to Kansas City's O. He's had 25 catches and three touchdowns the past three games. And being the most dependable target, you can bet he'll keep up a similar production the rest of the year. - Matt Cassel has been phenomenal as of late, throwing for another 400-yard game. He's matured really quickly and has made excellent decisions. Years sitting behind Tom Brady and being coached by "Hoodie" will do that to a player. You can be sure Cassel's wallet will thank them both of them in the offseason. - Jacksonville hasn't been able to get a consistent running game going all season. To sum it all up, look at Maurice Jones-Drew's rushing totals from Sunday. Three carries for four yards. Major risk and at this point, little reward. - The Colts' offense is finally banging on all cylinders. Big boosts to Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez. - If Clinton Portis can rush for nearly 150 yards hurt, I can't wait to see what he can again do when healthy. [I apologize for not putting up a Name Calling article on Friday. I was giving Tom Cruise acting lessons.] Al Roker is our hero. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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McNabb to Start Thursday

After being benched for Kevin Kolb at halftime after turning the ball over three times on Sunday, Eagles' quarterback Donovan McNabb will keep his starting job for next week. So have no fear; confidently start Donovan. Andy Reid knows that he'll bounce back and that good times are coming! Says the head coach: "Sometimes you have to step back to step forward in a positive way and Donovan will do that." McNabb owners really shouldn't be too worried at all. There's a very simple solution, as Reid explains. "I need to coach better. Donovan needs to play better and the guys around Donovan need to play better." If you think that all that is possible for the 5-5-1 Philadelphia squad, then keep DMac in your starting line up. And for the rest of the year? Well, McNabb's starting role seems secure. After being questioned about how the position will look for the rest of the season, Reid consulted with Terrell Owens and answered, "As I sit here right now, he's my quarterback," Reid said. "I'm telling you he's the starting quarterback. If I thought different, then I'd start the other guy." Well thanks for clearing that up Andy. We'll always be lovin' you the way we wanted too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Stat Boy Saturday: How Do Backups-Turned-Starters Perform?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week, with the injury of Earnest Graham, he throws out the charts and graphs dealing with a backup's performance after he gains the starting role. It's that time of year again. Remember last year? Three running backs who produced as top-15 running backs, after their incumbent running back got injured—Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman in the case of Earnest Graham (whom himself might be one of those to allow a backup major opportunities this year); Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn for Ryan Grant; and LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes for Justin Fargas. As just noted, Earnest Graham was placed on the IR and Warrick Dunn was subsequently proclaimed as the next pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson. Even I succumbed to this, choosing Dunn as my mancrush of the week (which haven't been posted yet, by the way). Conservatives will point to Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Kenneth Darby, and Antonio Pittman as reasons to why backups-turned-starters (BTS) never perform. Others will point to the three backs mentioned above, Graham, Grant, and Fargas. Who is right? And does the experience of a BTS even matter? Looking at every top-30 back's game-by-game logs from 2005-2007, I chose 22 running back whose game-by-game carries showed that they were a BTS. My criteria for choosing these 22 was that they must have single digit carries in a significant amount of games, or in three or more games. I then lowered that to 18, getting rid of those who had carry totals that fluctuated every week, and found 19 stretches of games in which they looked to go from a backup to a starter. One player had two of these, hence the 19 (which I'll simply call players and not stretches). Yes, it's selective sampling, but it beats just looking at games started or not started, because some players in timeshares tend to get a starting job midway through the year but have the number of attempts stay the same, which is not what I was looking for. Here are the charts showing the average amount of attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and fantasy points for each number game started. There were 17 players in the first game played, 17 in the second, 16 in the third, then 14, 11, 9, 7, 7, 6, 2, and finally 2 in the 11th game played. Realize that the 10th and 11th games should definitely not be looked at due to the low number of players, but I included them anyway. (For reference, the pre-starter per-game averages of these 19 players was 6.4 attempts, 30.2 rushing yards, 0.2 touchdowns, and 5.8 fantasy points.) Click on pictures for larger view. Although the graphs look inconsistent, check out what each dot actually means. The lowest average of attempts was just less than 16, yards just less than 70, and fantasy points just less than 12. I suggest a BTS's fourth game as the proving point. The fourth game had higher stats than every game before it except in fantasy points, where a BTS's second game had .13 more fantasy points than his fourth. So in conclusion, you can trust backups-turned-starters on your fantasy team. You won't know exactly what stats they'll put up, but you know that they'll put up No. 2 or even No. 1 running back numbers. That's more reason as to why Warrick Dunn will be the next pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson Earnest Graham. Ironic, huh? We'd take a homeless man to the movies, too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.
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Earnest Graham's "Status in Question," Says Gruden

"His status for the rest of the season is very much in question. [I]t doesn't look like he'll play anytime soon." Those are the words of Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden regarding Earnest Graham, who was injured on his first carry in the Bucs' 19-13 win Sunday. The loss of Graham for possibly the rest of the year is huge for the Bucs and my two fantasy leagues in which I own him; the Fantasy Hall-of-Famer was a top-20 running back, even including his one-carry performance on Sunday. His absence paves the way for Warrick Dunn, who gained 118 total yards on 24 touches Sunday without Graham and is averaging 8.2 fantasy points per game on the year, and Cadillac Williams, who will be returning this week against the Lions. Dunn shoots up into a slot in the top-25 running backs with Graham gone. Right now I'd rank Caddy somewhere in the low 30's among RBs, but he's a huge risk/reward player and is a better waiver wire option than current backups such as Rudi Johnson and LeRon McLain. Think of Dunn as someone around the BenJarvus Green-Ellis range (before Sammy Morris comes back) and Caddy as someone near the Ricky Williams range.
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Steven Jackson Already Ruled Out For Week 12

Remember this?

"So to be clear: I am playing. Be ready."

Jackson titled that blog post on his website, "Game On." He posted the message before week nine. We can officially add S-Jax to the ever growing list of unreliable sources of NFL news. Because 16 days later, Jackson is nowhere close to 100 percent. The Rams have already come out this week and said that he's not going to be ready for this next week's game. Clearly they are positive he's not good to go. And when a player is positively not good to go, it's not good. As in, that's my car rolling down the hill, not good. It gets worse. Jim Haslett said doctors "feel he should be out this week, and rest him, and see what happens next week." Translation: That's your fantasy team rolling out of the playoffs, not good. Don't expect anything from him anytime soon. No matter what his blog says. We knew that there were ties in the NFL. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Weekend Recap: Week 11

I had to do a double-take. Nay, a triple take. I couldn't believe my ears. No, I hadn't just heard the phrase, "The Lions have won." It was this, Donovan McNabb's comments in his press conference after the Eagles 13-13 tie with the Bengals yesterday. One has to wonder, what did McNabb think happened when a game ended in a tie? Foosball tournament to determine the winner? What does this have to do with fantasy football? Nothing, nothing at all. I just couldn't hold back. - What more can you say about DeAngelo Wiiliams? In his past three games, he's had at least 100 yards rushing and a YPC (yards per carry) of 6.4, 7.4, and 8.6 each game. Get out the hose because this kid is on fire. (I apologize for that terrible joke.) Williams has firmly cemented himself as the No. 1 back in Carolina, and though Jonathan Stewart will get his fair share of carries, Williams is the main guy. - Let's stay with the Carolina theme, but this time on the opposite side of the spectrum. Jake Delhomme has been awful as of late, and it wasn't because of stiff competition. He's gone a combined 17-for-48 (35%), 180 yards, one TD, and five INTs against the Raiders and Lions. Bench him until he rebounds. - I recommended that you sit Steve Slaton this week. I was wrong, WAY wrong. He tore up a Bob Sanders-less Colts defense, and it appears that the rookie has caught a second wind. He's an average No. 2 RB or a great flex play from here on out. - At this point, it's overkill, but all should fear the Cardinals' passing attack. Another game, another offensive rout by Kurt Warner (395 passing yards), Anquan Boldin (186 receiving yards), and Larry Fitzgerald (151 yards receiving). If your opponent has any of these guys in his/her lineup, look out—it could be a rough week. - Ben Roethlisberger rebounded quite nicely yesterday against the Chargers. Granted, the Chargers have had a lot of issues in defending the pass this season, but Big Ben made good decisions and got the ball out of his hand quickly. That's a recipe for success, and that's exactly what happened to the Steelers (all controversy aside). - Matt Hasselbeck returned this week, but he's still at least another week away from making a real impact. He struggled, throwing three interceptions, and only Deion Branch had more than four receptions. It's hard to find fantasy gold in the desert ... er ... Seattle's offense. - One piece of injury news to pass along. An ankle injury is likely to keep Earnest Graham out for the season. Warrick Dunn will take over as the starter with Cadillac Williams slowly getting into the mix. Tosten stole my line. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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