Hey Rookie, Welcome to the NFL: Evaluating the Performance of Several Rookie RBs

Not too often do the Dennis Quaids of the world prove to be anything more than your first pick's handcuff. 2008 was the year of the rookie running back. Over 10 rookies either started, filled in for their injured predecessor, or split the load of the carries and became fantasy relevant in a year in which many first- and second-round fantasy picks turned out to be busts. In what was called one of the greatest running back drafts ever—even proclaimed so before the draft occurred—three of the five first-round backs missed a total of 22 games this year—yet four other backs chosen in the first three rounds had over 1,000 total yards (three of which rushed for 1,200 yards), and another had 900 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tim Hightower, Tashard Choice, and Ryan Torain—the guy that sat on your bench all year as you hoped and prayed that he would recover and prosper in Denver's Russian-roulette running back slot, which came out to be true for one game until he tore his ACL and gave way for another rookie (Peyton Hillis) to succeed, I might add—all provided fantasy effectiveness for some time or another, in addition to the aforementioned group of 900- and 1,000-yard backs. Recent years such as 2006 provided other great running back draft classes, but not nearly as much as 2008, which had, among many stats, three 1,200-yard rushers (since the 1981 draft class, only two had as many as two such rushers, in 1983 and 2000) and four backs with 10 total touchdowns (only three classes since 1981 had as many as three, and none of those came after 1985). The breakout of these rookie running backs yields a good question: Will they—nay, any of them—keep this up for next year? I went to a statistical approach to answer this question. I looked at every rookie RB since 1981 that had six touches per game and 60 attempts on the year to see how their next year's stats changed from their rookie season. Since there were 249 players that had these requirements, I split them up into five groups based on their stats from their rookie year. (I had the top 50 leaders in attempts in group one, Nos. 51-100 for group two, and so on, and then did this for each stat that I was looking at.) I then found various data—the percent of the group that had their stat decline from their rookie year to the next, the average of the stat in the rookie year and the sophomore year, and the correlation for the stat from the rookie year to the next—to try and see how each group performs the next year. (Methodological note: Not every group had 50 or 49 players; if there was a tie for the last spot in a group, I moved both players to the higher group. There were 51 players in the first group for total yards, for example, because two players tied for 50th place with 1,130 yards.) Here are the results:

Attempts
	Range	Att_down?	Att-Yr1	Att-Yr2	Correl
1st group	207 - 390	64.0%	272	227	0.220
2nd group	143 - 204	56.9%	172	148	0.135
3rd group	112 - 142	60.8%	125	118	0.173
4th group	84 - 111	68.8%	97	80	0.287
5th group	61 - 83	44.0%	73	83	-0.182
Overall		59.0%	149	132	0.587

Total Yards
	Range	Yd_down?	Yd-Yr1	Yd-Yr2	Correl
1st group	1130 - 2212	64.7%	1,440	1,124	0.452
2nd group	763 - 1117	63.3%	919	823	0.276
3rd group	596 - 759	50.0%	670	688	0.180
4th group	447 - 594	64.0%	514	446	0.025
5th group	179 - 446	44.9%	356	420	0.065
Overall		57.4%	784	703	0.575

Total Touchdowns
	Range	TD_down?	TD-Yr1	TD-Yr2	Correl
1st group	10 - 20	75.9%	13.1	8.3	0.220
2nd group	7 - 9	60.5%	7.7	5.7	0.102
3rd group	4 - 6	61.5%	4.8	4.6	0.179
4th group	1 - 3	55.6%	2.1	3.1	0.181
Overall		57.4%	4.9	4.6	0.448

Fantasy Points
	Range	Pts_down?	Pts-Yr1	Pts-Yr2	Correl
1st group	154.7 - 341.2	72.0%	204.7	157.8	0.439
2nd group	105.9 - 153.7	62.0%	124.5	114.3	0.098
3rd group	79.3 - 105.5	50.0%	92.9	92.1	0.111
4th group	60.1 - 79.2	64.0%	69.1	61.0	-0.017
5th group	22.9 - 59.7	42.9%	47.3	62.4	-0.019
Overall		58.2%	108.0	97.7	0.562

Range—The range of the stat in question for each group Att_down?—The percent of players in a group that had their stat decline or stay the same the following year Att-Yr1—The average number of each stat for each group in their rookie year Att_Yr2—The average number of each stat for each group in their sophomore year Correl—The correlation of the rookie year stats and the sophomore year stats. The closer to one, the more dependent the sophomore and rookie stats are with each other, or in order words, the easier to predict that stat in the sophomore year; a negative number means that as the stat increases in the first year, it decreases in the second year. The better a rookie performs in his first year, he is more likely to decline the next year (a phenomenon called regression toward the mean). Generally, the lower the stat of a player in their rookie year, the tougher it is to get a true grasp of how they'll perform the next year.

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I'll use these data to analyze the crop of 2008 rookie running backs and try and predict how they'll do in 2009. In order of how I'd rank them for 2009... Matt Forte Falls under: 1st group for attempts; 1st group for yards; 1st group for touchdowns; 1st group for fantasy points As the leading rusher and pass catcher for the Bears, Forte had almost 380 touches and more than 1,700 total yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. However, Forte gained only 3.91 yards per carry this year, which is certainly a problem for the Chicago workhorse. That said, he gained 4.19 yards per carry from Week Nine on—when first-round OT Chris Williams returned from injury—compared to his 3.42 average without Williams. Forte was incredibly consistent in 2008: He had only two games end in single-digit fantasy points, and he had a either 75 total yards or a touchdown in every game this year. His lowest amount of touches in a game was 16, twice. Forte fell under the first group for every statistic, and it seems unlikely that he'll follow up his rookie numbers with even better ones next year. Projected 2009 stats (see below): 281 attempts, 1,471 total yards, nine total touchdowns, and 203 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 3 - 6 RB; Mid-first rounder Steve Slaton Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Taking out his first career game and his four-carry game in Week 10 against the Ravens, Slaton averaged over 100 total yards and 15.6 fantasy points per game. He reached 100 yards in nine of those 14 games, and in the five without 100 yards he put up 12.5 fantasy points. Slaton was clearly helped by head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme—which Kubiak learned in his 11 years as Denver Broncos offensive coordinator—although that's not a bad thing. Slaton is in the perfect situation for him: an offense that is made for quick-footed and agile players (Slaton ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at the Combine). Slaton's 4.78 yards per carry show he can make the most of his opportunities, be it 20 carries a game or a timeshare with Ryan Moats (hey, stuff can happen). Slaton gained 100 total yards in six of his last seven games, and his success should carry over to next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 239 attempts, 1,423 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 189 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 11-15 RB; Early- to mid-second rounder Chris Johnson Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Whether it's his first or last carry, Johnson is always a threat to take it 50 yards to the house. But that's the thing—if he doesn't get a score, he doesn't perform at all. In the games in which he scored, Johnson averaged 102 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards, and on 21 touches, that's a 5.95 yards-per-touch average; in the games in which he did not score, he had 59 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards on 18 touches, a 3.89 yards-per-touch average. (Taking out the distances of his touchdown runs and catch, Johnson averaged 99 total yards on 22 touches in games in which he scored, a 4.95 yards-per-touch average.) Which is why I'm not a big fan of Johnson. Predicting touchdowns is hard as is, and even tougher is predicting the distances of his touchdowns—Johnson's touchdown lengths added a whole yard to his YPT average. Proj. 2009 stats: 224 attempts, 1,277 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 174 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 14-18 RB; Mid- to late-second rounder Kevin Smith Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 2nd group; 1st group After carrying the ball only 56 times in the first eight weeks, Smith ran the ball 61 times in his next three games. That was the story for Smith this year. Smith started out slow and almost lost his job to Rudi Johnson early on. After Week Nine, however, he picked up the pace and was a top-10 running back. He averaged 100 yards on 23 touches for 12.9 fantasy points per game from Week 10 on, a stretch that included six 85-yard games and four touchdowns. Smith's 2009 value heavily relies on the Lions' draft strategy. Will they take OT Andre Smith first overall, or Sam Bradford? Will they stock up the offensive line, or work on the defense? As it stands now, Smith is a reliable top-20 back with high upside. From Week Five on, Smith had at least six fantasy points in every game except one, so you know you can trust him week in, week out. Proj. 2009 stats: 214 attempts, 1,082 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 145 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 18-23 RB; Late third-rounder Jonathan Stewart Falls under: 2nd group; 2nd group; 1st group; 2nd group As long as DeAngelo Williams is there, Stewart won't get more than 15 carries a game. Of course, that's not good for his fantasy value. Like Johnson, Stewart's value is based on his touchdown scoring. Stewart's per-game line in the eight games where he didn't score: 8.5 attempts, 34 rushing yards, and five receiving yards. In the other eight games where he did score, he's averaging 14.4 attempts for 71 rushing yards. Stewart doesn't get carries and is only worth a shot if he gets a touchdown, which is 50 percent of the time. He's not a safe bet for next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 169 attempts, 824 total yards, seven touchdowns, 141 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 24-28 RB; Late fourth-rounder Darren McFadden Falls under: 3rd group; 2nd group; 3rd group; 3rd group Injuries caught up with McFadden and ruined his rookie season. He looked spectacular at times (see his Week Two 164-yard performance) and downright ugly at others (one carry for no yards in Week 14). Justin Fargas stole from his opportunities, as he averaged 17 carries in the last eight weeks of the year, which led to McFadden's averaging just seven carries in that time frame. Fargas signed a three-year contract last February, so he won't be gone for another two years, and Michael Bush looked great in the last week of the season with both Fargas and McFadden injured. It's a loaded backfield in Oakland, and only time will tell who will emerge as the No. 1 back. Proj. 2009 stats: 109 attempts, 732 total yards, four touchdowns, 102 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 26-30 RB; Mid-fifth-rounder Rashard Mendenhall Falls under: n/a Although he had no carries in two of his four games, Mendenhall had nine and 10 carries in his other two games and was on his way to becoming a good flex play before suffering a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football. Willie Parker signed a four-year deal in 2006, meaning next year may be his last in Pittsburgh. Owners in dynasty and keeper leagues may want to hold on to Mendenhall in case Parker does in fact leave. Rashard would be a top-20 back if he got the load of the carries in Pittsburgh. Proj stats in 2009: N/A. Mendenhall had less than 60 carries. Where I'd rank him in 2009: No. 28-31 RB; Late-fifth, early-sixth rounder Tim Hightower Falls under: 2nd group; 3rd group; 1st group; 2nd group Hightower started the year with seven touchdowns in his first eight games, including his first career 100-yard game at the end of that stretch. And then he crumbled right before our eyes. He did run the ball nine times a game from Week 10 on—but, on the other hand, gained only 20 yards with those carries. Hightower isn't going to be fantasy relevant at all next year—even 15 carries a game will only result in, what, 45 yards? Proj. 2009 stats: 132 attempts, 638 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 117 fantasy points Where I'd rank him for 2009: No. 30-33 RB; Early-sixth rounder Tashard Choice Falls under: 4th group; 3rd group; 4th group; 4th group Felix Jones Falls under: none; 5th group; 4th group; 5th group So you know how Choice finished the year: 20 touches, 122 total yards, and 15.2 fantasy points per game in his last four, in which he scored two touchdowns. And you know how Jones started the year: six touches, 51 total yards, and 8.7 fantasy points per game in his first five, which includes a zero-rush, zero-catch game in Week Four. But with Marion Barber in the backfield, will either back get enough touches to be worth at least a flex play in standard leagues? Yes—Jones will. The Cowboys should have their first-rounder Jones get the majority of the carries after Barber, with Choice demoted to injury insurance. If Jones gets seven or eight carries a game, he should gain 60 or so yards, as he had more than nine yards per carry in his first five games this year. Proj. 2009 stats for Choice: 97 attempts, 666 total yards, three touchdowns, and 72 fantasy points Proj. 2009 stats for Jones: N/A. Jones didn't reach 60 carries. Where I'd rank Choice for 2009: No. 45-50 RB; Late-10th rounder Where I'd rank Jones for 2009: No. 35-40 RB; Early-ninth rounder

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How are 2009 stats projected? I used the data in the table and the player's 2008 stats to try and project their 2009 stats. I'll use Matt Forte as an example. Forte fell under the first group for each stat. He had 315 attempts in 2008. The players in the first group in attempts had their attempts change by 83.3 percent (227 divided by 272 in the table), and 64 percent had their attempts go down. Multiply these two numbers by 315, and you get 168. Then multiply 315 by 36 percent (100 percent minus 64 percent), which is 113. Add the two numbers (113 and 168) and you get 281. We are currently getting e-mail from one guy. We would love if you could up that number significantly. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Stat Boy Saturday: Predicting Week 17 Rest

The number of articles produced by Fantasy Football Writers With Hair has gradually gone down in the last four weeks. Then I realized it. We're the New York Giants. Think about it: Tosten is Brandon Jacobs, Gage is Plaxico Burress, Alex is Eli Manning, and I am Derrick Ward. Tosten never missed an article or deadline, and he was a No. 1 fantasy writer until he got sick after posting a Donovan McNabb news update on Nov. 24. He recovered the following week, but then missed this week with a hamstring injury (or maybe not); Jacobs was a No. 1 back until he missed a Nov. 23 game against the Cardinals. He recovered and performed nicely in the next two weeks until missing last week with an injury. Gage showed up for the first few weeks of the year, giving his mancrushes weekly (but forgetting about the HAIRY's). Then he had some personal and family business that took up most of his time, and got it resolved to resume his posting duties. Plaxico Burress was a nice No. 2 wideout in the first half of the year. Then he had personal business to deal with (his shooting, obviously), and was suspended for the rest of the year. Although Gage came back from his issues, the comparison still stands. Alex and I are Manning and Ward, respectively, because we can be counted on week after week, as we never miss an article or deadline.

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The Giants are major candidates to rest their starters next week if a simple turn of events occurs. Like us. If teams don't rest their stars next week, then there's no news for us to spin, no pickups to write about, no no-name players to mancrush (yes, it's a verb, too). But how can we tell which teams will sit their starters next week, which is the final week in some or most fantasy leagues? Every team locked into a playoff spot rest their stars, right? I was looking to bust that notion. I looked at every single player who played from 2004-2007 with more than 250 pass attempts, 150 rush attempts, or 50 receptions, and from their game-by-game performances, saw if they sat in Week 17 or did not. In order to reduce bias, I deleted the player's name and team when picking out whether the player rested, so as to not try and pick players on good or bad teams purposefully. If a player had 30 attempts in four straight games, then 12 in Week 17, he was classified as being rested. I came out with 15 rested QBs, 11 running backs, and 10 wide receivers. There were probably more wideouts than that, but because of the overall volatility of wideouts, if was hard to find which ones were rested and which ones just had a bad outing. After spotting the rested players, I looked at their team's wins to see if there was a trend. And there was.

Team Wins of Rested Player

QBs	RBs	WRs
10	10	10
12	12	13
13	10	10
11	14	14
10	10	11
13	12	11
14	13	13
11	10	14
11	13	10
13	9	12
10	13
13
13
13
13
Avg = 12	Avg = 11.5	Avg = 11.8
10+ win %	10+ win %	10+ win %
36.6%	24.4%	22.0%
13+ win %	13+ win %	13+ win %
61.5%	30.8%	23.1%

*Two players on 2005 Colts were rested. The two 14 wins were counted in the average, but only was was counted in the percentages. **10+ win % and 13+ win % represent how many 10-win (or more) and 13-win (or more) teams rested players. There were 41 10-win teams from 2004-2007, and 15 of those rested a QB; 15 divided by 41 is 36.6 percent. What this shows is that you shouldn't worry about running backs or wideouts being rested nearly as much as quarterbacks; even if your RB or WR sits, his attempts or receptions usually aren't that less than their seasonal numbers. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, get much more rest in Week 17 games than backs or wideouts. If you have a QB on a locked playoff team, you should definitely try to find a replacement—more than one-third of the time, the Week 17 attempts of a QB on a playoff team (a 10-win team) are substantially different than their pre-Week 17 numbers. The Giants, Panthers, Titans, Colts, and Steelers all look like they will rest their starters; the Colts already are lokced into the No. 5 seed, and the other four play each other this week and should have their spots locked in after their games. The Cardinals also have locked up a playoff slot and seed; they should rest their stars too. Whether you're in your finals or not, look out for teams resting their stars. We really hope that there is something to write about next week. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Stat Boy Saturday: Fantasy Points Per Touch Revisited

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he sees which players produce the most with the least opportunities. Here's what I don't get: people are saying that Tim Tebow shouldn't even be a finalist for the Heisman trophy because he has less than 2,600 passing yards, which is half of what Graham Harrell had. Okay, except one thing: Tebow attempted exactly 300 less passes than did Harrell. Every Texas Tech quarterback since 2002 has had monster passing stats. That's due to Tech's offensive system and the fact that they throw the ball 75 percent of the time. Prorate Tebow's stats to the 568 attempts that Harrell had, and suddenly Tebow is leading Harrell by 600 in passing yards. It's not about their raw stats, but how they performed with the opportunities they were granted. Through Week 10, Pierre Thomas had on the year 41.2 fantasy points on 48 touches. Per 20 touches, that's 17.2 fantasy points. Then New Orleans started giving him the rock—and from Week 11 on, he produced 22 fantasy points per 20 touches. No one would have predicted his breakout performance, because, after all, he was averaging 4.6 fantasy points per game. It's not about their raw stats, but how they performed with the opportunities they were granted. With the string of injuries to star performers this week, I decided to revisit my early-season article on fantasy points per touch. Which backups that will get the load of carries this week warrant a starting spot on your fantasy roster? I looked at the top-25 quarterbacks, top-30 running backs, and top-40 wide receivers on the year, plus the backups that will be starting or will receive an increase in playing time this week. I ended up adding three quarterbacks and five running backs and wideouts. Note: Touches were defined as attempts plus carries for QBs, attempts plus receptions for running backs, and receptions for wide receivers. Then I multiplied the fantasy points per touch number by an average amount of touches a starter would see—30 attempts/carries for a QB; 20 rushes/catches for RBs; and six catches for wide receivers. Players who should see an increase of playing time have their names in bold.

Quarterbacks
Name	Fan.Pts	Pts per 30
Philip Rivers	217.0	16.2
Shaun Hill	96.6	15.2
Tony Romo	178.9	15.0
Aaron Rodgers	236.9	14.7
Matt Schaub	134.4	13.9
Drew Brees	240.1	13.8
Seneca Wallace	71.6	13.7
Kurt Warner	236.6	13.5
Eli Manning	181.0	13.0
Matt Ryan	174.0	12.8
Jay Cutler	226.8	12.7
Tyler Thigpen	151.5	12.7
Donovan McNabb	204.7	12.2
Peyton Manning	200.7	12.2
Chad Pennington	169.9	12.2
Jake Delhomme	148.1	12.1
Trent Edwards	141.8	12.0
Kyle Orton	151.0	12.0
Jeff Garcia	132.5	11.9
Joe Flacco	157.6	11.8
Brett Favre	171.4	11.7
Ben Roethlisberger	155.7	11.6
J.P. Losman	28.7	11.5
Matt Cassel	191.6	11.3
Tarvaris Jackson	29.3	10.7
Jason Campbell	160.1	10.6
Sage Rosenfels	64.9	10.5
David Garrard	171.2	10.3

• You can read how much I love Shaun Hill in this week's Mancrushes (whenever they get posted).
• I also like Seneca Wallace this week. He's averaged 16.3 fantasy points in his last four starts, and the St. Louis Rams are in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.
• If you were thinking of playing J.P. Losman or Tavaris Jackson because the Jets and Cardinals are in the bottom five against QBs in fantasy points allowed ... don't. You deserve to lose if you do.

Running Backs
Name	Fan. Pts	Pts Per 20
Pierre Thomas	120.0	20.9
DeAngelo Williams	216.2	18.6
Maurice Jones-Drew	178.9	18.6
Brandon Jacobs	175.3	17.5
Kevin Faulk	108.6	17.5
LenDale White	153.0	17.5
Brian Westbrook	193.3	16.5
Jonathan Stewart	119.7	16.3
Thomas Jones	215.7	15.8
Sammy Morris	91.3	15.5
Reggie Bush	115.8	15.4
Tim Hightower	115.9	15.4
Steve Slaton	185.4	15.3
Ronnie Brown	156.9	15.1
Chris Johnson	189.1	14.5
Mewelde Moore	117.1	14.4
Michael Turner	212.0	13.9
Le'Ron McClain	121.0	13.5
Frank Gore	182.5	13.5
Derrick Ward	116.2	13.3
Adrian Peterson	206.2	13.2
Marion Barber	177.6	13.1
Dominic Rhodes	99.5	13.0
Matt Forte	207.6	12.9
Clinton Portis	188.1	12.9
Steven Jackson	126.1	12.7
Marshawn Lynch	165.3	12.6
Kevin Smith	123.2	12.5
LaDainian Tomlinson	173.1	12.1
Ladell Betts	38.0	11.5
Warrick Dunn	106.6	11.3
Willis McGahee	93.3	11.0
Willie Parker	84.1	10.9
Ryan Grant	126.1	9.9
Jamal Lewis	120.4	9.8

• Derrick Ward is in the middle of the pack in this list. But if you remember how high he was in last week's consistency article, he's a must-start in all formats. He's going to get you 12 fantasy points this week, no doubt about it.
• Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are both low on this list. That's interesting, because most think that whoever gets the load of the carries in Baltimore performs outstandingly.
• Dominic Rhodes is a top-12 running back this week. Why? He's averaging 17.9 fantasy points in his last four games where he had over 20 touches, and the top rusher on teams facing the Lions has put up 18.9 fantasy points per game.
• Clinton Portis might not get all the carries in Washington, but that shouldn't make Ladell Betts be your flex play this week. His yards per carry on the year is only 3.3.

Wide Receivers
Name	Fan. Pts	Pts per 6
Devery Henderson	84.8	18.2
Justin Gage	77.1	17.8
Calvin Johnson	159.5	17.1
Vincent Jackson	121.1	16.5
Bernard Berrian	112.4	16.4
Terrell Owens	138.8	15.1
Kevin Walter	133.1	14.5
Isaac Bruce	105.3	14.4
Greg Jennings	155.1	14.1
Steve Smith	137.1	13.5
Randy Moss	132.1	13.0
Deion Branch	36.0	12.7
Lee Evans	109.3	12.6
Roddy White	160.9	12.4
Marques Colston	51.4	12.3
Larry Fitzgerald	169.1	12.2
Braylon Edwards	91.5	12.2
Lance Moore	125.4	12.1
Anquan Boldin	166.4	12.0
Michael Jenkins	76.9	11.8
Santonio Holmes	85.6	11.7
Santana Moss	117.6	11.6
Muhsin Muhammad	93.4	11.2
Antonio Bryant	123.7	11.1
Hines Ward	112.1	11.0
Reggie Wayne	121.8	10.9
Amani Toomer	74.5	10.9
Dwayne Bowe	120.7	10.8
Donald Driver	101.3	10.7
Roy Williams	52.9	10.6
Laveranues Coles	98.0	10.5
Marvin Harrison	88.3	10.4
Derrick Mason	111.1	10.3
DeSean Jackson	89.5	10.1
Brandon Marshall	139.3	10.1
Anthony Gonzalez	84.8	10.0
Andre Johnson	150.1	9.8
Jerricho Cotchery	94.2	9.6
Eddie Royal	109.9	9.6
Chad Johnson	74.7	9.0
Steve Breaston	98.0	8.8
Matt Jones	87.0	8.2
Davone Bess	49.3	7.6
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	112.5	7.6
Wes Welker	106.2	6.6

• I don't like using fantasy points per touch on wide receivers. What will result is that the guys who seem to get a 50-yard catch every other week will rise to the top, and the possession receivers such as Wes Welker will sink to the bottom.
• Nonetheless, it's still a fine measuring tool of production. Justin Gage is averaging 10.6 fantasy points in his past five games, including 7.7 on the year. However, he's had four or less fantasy points in five of his 10 games played. Start him if you need a high risk/high reward guy.
• Amani Toomer hasn't been all that great on the year, but in the past three games when Plaxico had no catches or was injured, Toomer's put up 8.7 fantasy points per game. He's a nice flex play this week.
• I also bolded Davone Bess. Though he's second-to-last, he's caught 20 balls for 245 yards in his last three. He won't get you a touchdown, but if you need 70-80 yards, he's your guy.

I think Tosten and Alex have been having secret meetings, too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Stat Boy Saturday: Which Players Can You Trust In The Playoffs?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. He checks in this week with the most consistent performers on the year. Some people you just cannot trust. O.J. Simpson says he never killed his ex-wife Nicole Brown Simpson or her friend Ronald Goldman. Bill Clinton says he "did not have sexual relations with that woman, Monica Lewinsky." Roger Clemens says he did not take steroids. (Wait, that's not the right video...) Today, Chris Landry, formerly of Sportsnet.ca, denied plagiarism of Andrew Brandt and Mike Lombardi of NationalFootballPost.com. Heck, I couldn't trust anyone that said you can trust any of those examples. On the same note, there are some football players you can't trust week-in, week-out for your fantasy team. Last year, Chad Johnson Ocho Cinco Ochocinco Johnson had 87.2 fantasy points in his three highest-scoring games, and 104.8 in his other 13 games. This year, his teammate T.J. Houshmandzadeh has 62 fantasy points in his three highest-scoring games, and just 43 in his other nine games. You wouldn't want to trust either of them as your No. 1 or 2 wide receiver going into the fantasy playoffs. Similarly, you could trust Willis McGahee last year—he had double-digit fantasy points in every game heading into the playoffs, but unfortunately burned some with two games under six fantasy points in Weeks 14 through 16 and was injured in the final week of the season. What about this year? Who are the safest choices for your fantasy team, and who are the biggest risk/reward players? I looked at the week-to-week consistency of the top-15 quarterbacks, top-25 running backs, and top-30 wideouts by looking at the standard deviation of their game-by-game stats. Standard deviation effectively measures how far a set of values (in this case, week-by-week production) is away from the mean; here's a more detailed definition. A lower standard deviation means that the player usually produces the same each week, a higher meaning that you can't predict the player's performance. In order to take away from those players who seem to get five carries for 20 yards each and every week (and therefore would have a standard deviation almost near zero), I found a player's real value by dividing their fantasy points per game, by the standard deviation of the week-by-week fantasy points per game—if player X scores 15 fantasy points per game and has a standard deviation of five, his "value" would be three, 15 divided by five. Doing this makes a higher score better. I did this for different statistics for each position, to see, for example, if a running back was getting the same amount of carries per week but much different amounts of rushing yards. Here are the results.

Quarterbacks
Player	Fan.Pts	Yard_Pass	TD_Pass
Kurt Warner	3.74	3.69	2.83
Jason Campbell	3.05	3.75	1.21
Matt Ryan	3.02	4.72	1.26
Tony Romo	3.00	5.12	2.47
Eli Manning	2.97	4.28	1.66
Aaron Rodgers	2.80	3.83	1.62
Drew Brees	2.71	5.23	1.73
Jay Cutler	2.36	3.47	1.73
Peyton Manning	2.27	5.18	1.66
Phillip Rivers	2.20	3.30	1.72
Chad Pennington	2.04	3.72	0.96
David Garrard	2.01	4.29	1.21
Tyler Thigpen	1.97	2.26	1.18
Joe Flacco	1.88	3.93	1.22
Donovan McNabb	1.80	3.14	1.19
Ben Roethlisberger	1.71	2.74	1.14
Brett Favre	1.69	5.40	1.04
Trent Edwards	1.62	3.46	1.77
Jake Delhomme	1.53	2.93	1.22
Matt Cassel	1.32	2.64	0.91

• Jason Campbell has been sneakily consistent this year. His week-by-week fantasy point totals are as follows: 9, 17, 18, 18, 8, 10, 11, 15, 5, 11, 15, 11. Only one single-digit game since Week Two equals fantasy playoff starter-worthy.
• No. 3 on this list is Matt Ryan, who, like Campbell, has only one single-digit fantasy point game since Week Three. Both he and Campbell are must-starts if you are sitting with Ben Roethlisberger or Jake Delhomme at quarterback. You know you'll get 12 points out of them.
• Nos. 6 through 10 are the heavyweights, if you will. Just because they are below . Let me repeat: just because they are below Campbell and Ryan does NOT mean you bench them for a rookie quarterback.
• McNabb would have a 2.53 value, just above Jay Cutler, if his -3.1-point stinker against the Ravens was taken out. Don't take too much into his low spot.
• Drew Brees is No. 2 on the passing yards value list—that is phenomenal considering he has just a bit more passing yards than Kurt Warner, who is 10 spots lower than Brees.

Running Backs
Player	Fan.Pts	Touches	Yards_Total	TD_Total
Matt Forte	3.28	6.87	4.07	1.21
Derrick Ward	2.90	2.92	4.61	0.45
Jamal Lewis	2.72	4.70	6.74	0.71
Brandon Jacobs	2.45	5.10	2.70	1.38
Frank Gore	2.31	4.24	2.85	0.91
Adrian Peterson	2.28	4.50	2.48	1.04
Marshawn Lynch	2.27	3.67	2.80	1.07
Clinton Portis	2.26	4.46	2.92	0.77
LaDainian Tomlinson	2.13	5.12	2.85	0.77
Thomas Jones	2.07	3.78	2.88	1.04
Marion Barber	2.06	3.29	2.40	1.04
Kevin Smith	2.02	2.28	2.16	0.85
Tim Hightower	1.98	2.57	1.91	1.04
Chris Johnson	1.83	5.02	2.28	0.89
Steve Slaton	1.79	3.83	2.21	1.04
Maurice Jones-Drew	1.66	2.88	1.93	0.96
Le'Ron McClain	1.61	1.93	1.75	0.91
Ryan Grant	1.60	2.77	2.04	0.58
Michael Turner	1.56	4.98	2.12	0.82
DeAngelo Williams	1.50	4.66	2.22	0.86
Ronnie Brown	1.43	3.64	2.19	0.78
Steven Jackson	1.40	3.20	2.18	0.50
Brian Westbrook	1.31	3.06	1.73	0.86
LenDale White	1.26	2.11	1.11	1.14
Mewelde Moore	1.22	1.77	1.93	0.59

• Want a very nice flex play this week? Check out Derrick Ward. In his past five games, he's averaged 18 touches, 94 yards, and 11.8 fantasy points. Even with Brandon Jacobs ahead of him, he's had eight games with more than eight fantasy points since Week Two, and has had more than five fantasy points in every game on the year.
• Last year, Adrian Peterson was so inconsistent his fantasy point value was a paltry 1.24. He's silenced his critics this year with just three single-digit games on the season.
• DeAngelo Williams is No. 20 on the fantasy points value list. But if you only look at Week Five, when he started to become a real fantasy force, and beyond, his value in that category jumps to 2.23. He was incredibly consistent from Weeks One through Four, and Five through Thirteen—but if you combine them together he's not.
• Jamal Lewis is far and away the best in yards value. Just look at his week-by-week yardage total. He's as sure of a thing for 80 yards as anyone.

Wide Receivers
Player	Fan.Pts	Targets	Yard_Rec	TD_Rec
Larry Fitzgerald	3.61	3.27	2.35	0.89
Dwayne Bowe	2.74	3.00	2.68	0.77
Wes Welker	2.57	4.71	2.69	0.30
Greg Jennings	2.28	2.06	2.58	0.91
Anquan Boldin	2.23	2.92	2.21	1.17
Roddy White	2.07	2.47	3.36	0.77
Andre Johnson	1.95	2.99	2.10	0.71
Calvin Johnson	1.90	2.46	2.23	1.07
Steve Smith	1.88	4.31	2.37	0.60
DeSean Jackson	1.86	3.68	2.11	0.45
Hines Ward	1.82	2.54	2.06	0.77
Lee Evans	1.81	2.24	2.15	0.58
Vincent Jackson	1.73	2.42	1.87	0.85
Reggie Wayne	1.69	2.59	2.31	0.85
Brandon Marshall	1.66	3.30	2.03	0.76
Kevin Walter	1.52	2.81	2.20	0.77
Donald Driver	1.48	2.10	1.92	0.71
Muhsin Muhammad	1.45	2.06	1.70	0.71
Derrick Mason	1.43	2.83	1.73	0.58
Jerricho Cotchery	1.41	2.16	1.89	0.53
Terrell Owens	1.39	2.46	1.34	1.07
Eddie Royal	1.35	2.80	1.38	0.91
Lance Moore	1.33	2.51	1.54	0.89
Antonio Bryant	1.32	2.03	1.54	0.58
Santana Moss	1.32	2.54	1.32	0.85
Isaac Bruce	1.31	2.26	1.19	0.77
Bernard Berrian	1.28	2.00	1.46	0.85
Randy Moss	1.26	3.25	1.75	0.71
T.J. Housmandzadeh	1.25	3.19	1.72	0.53
Laveranues Coles	1.05	2.27	1.64	0.58

• Wes Welker has been considered a bust thus far, but he's near the top in fantasy points, targets, and receiving yards value. He's had at least six targets in every game, 50 yards in all but two, and five fantasy points in all but two games on the year. With the Seahawks coming up this week, he's a great start if you need a safe, reliable option.
• Near the bottom of the fantasy points list are all the long-catch guys. They either get a 60-yard touchdown catch or 30 yards on the day, which I why I like to stick with the Wes Welkers of the world over the Bernard Berrians.
• If you have Santana Moss as your No. 1 wideout, you better hope he goes off for 140 yards. Moss has six games under 60 yards receiving, and he's averaging only 6.2 fantasy points per game if you take out his three big games over 140 yards.

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Stat Boy Saturday: How Much Does Winter Weather Really Decrease Offense?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he looks at whether the winter weather (alliteration!) really hurts offenses, or if it's just a myth. You remember this game. You know, the one where Tom Brady and Randy Moss killed their owners after lifting them through many an undefeated regular season? Or this one? The one where waiver wire hero Derek Anderson put up a stinker in a blizzard? I owned both of them last year. Anderson's terrible performance knocked me out of one league. As for Brady ... well, let's say I didn't even make the playoffs with him. And Frank Gore. And Wes Welker. And Ryan Grant. Uh, but I did get stuck with Lee Evans and Donald Driver. (I had the fourth-most points scored but finished in eighth place. Head-to-head will do that to you.) Back on topic. It's no surprise that Lambeau Field often has two or three snow games per year, as does Gilette Stadium in Foxborough. And because the Georgia Dome is, um, a dome, it should yield higher scores than usual. But the key word is "should." The question is, does the Georgia Dome really increase scoring, and does Lambeau Field and other cold-weather stadia lower scoring and other measurements of offense? I ripped off of MLB's Park Factors, which in its simplest form is equal to home runs per game (by both teams) divided by road runs per game (by both teams). So if the Louisville Sluggers score four runs per game and give up five at home, but score five and give up five on the road, their park factor would be equal to .9 (nine divided by ten). I used a more complex method, which is described in the "How I Calculate PF" section here. I did this for points scored, passing yards, and rushing yards, using week-by-week data for all December games since 2003. Conventional wisdom says that the cold weather should lower passing but increase rushing (due to the fact that both teams wouldn't be able to pass). Is that true? Here's the data.

NFL Stadium Factors

Team	Stadium	Point	Pass	Rush
Baltimore Ravens	M&T Bank Stadium	1.20	1.04	1.09
Houston Texans	Reliant Stadium	1.14	1.13	1.01
Minnesota Vikings	H.H.H. Metrodome	1.10	1.06	1.04
Atlanta Falcons	Georgia Dome	1.10	0.94	0.88
St. Louis Rams	Edward Jones Dome	1.06	1.14	1.32
Miami Dolphins	Dolphin Stadium	1.06	1.18	1.15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Raymond James Stadium	1.05	0.89	1.07
San Diego Chargers	Qualcomm Stadium	1.05	1.07	1.07
Philadelphia Eagles	Lincoln Financial Field	1.04	1.07	1.07
Seattle Seahawks	Candlestick Park	1.01	0.90	0.91
New York Jets/Giants	Giants Stadium/Meadowlands	1.01	0.94	0.99
Pittsburgh Steelers	Heinz Field	1.00	0.99	1.03
Indianapolis Colts	RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium	1.00	1.09	1.01
Washington Redskins	FedExField	1.00	1.04	1.07
Oakland Raiders	Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum	1.00	1.16	1.00
Buffalo Bills	Ralph Wilson Stadium	0.99	0.86	1.02
Detroit Lions	Ford Field	0.99	0.99	0.91
Dallas Cowboys	Texas Stadium	0.99	0.98	0.84
San Francisco 49ers	Qwest Field	0.99	1.02	0.85
Arizona Cardinals	University of Phoenix Stadium	0.99	0.98	0.96
Chicago Bears	Soldier Field	0.98	1.00	1.16
Tennessee Titans	LP Field	0.97	1.05	1.20
Kansas City Chiefs	Arrowhead Stadium	0.97	0.94	0.89
Denver Broncos	Invesco Field (Mile High)	0.96	0.98	0.94
Cincinnati Bengals	Paul Brown Stadium	0.95	0.91	0.96
New Orleans Saints	Louisiana Superdome	0.94	1.06	1.08
Cleveland Browns	Cleveland Browns Stadium	0.93	0.90	0.89
Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	0.93	0.96	1.00
Green Bay Packers	Lambeau Field	0.90	0.88	1.04
New England Patriots	Gillette Stadium	0.90	1.02	1.04
Carolina Panthers	Bank of America Stadium	0.89	0.98	0.89

Methodology note: Two teams, the Cardinals and Colts, moved into new stadia during five-year sample used. I discarded this fact, because I was more trying to see if the weather, not the stadium, had an effect. The Browns, Packers, and Patriots are all near the bottom of the points factor, as they should be. But the Panthers last in the league? Surely this had to be a result of an abnormally-high road point scoring trend, right? I realized that with the low sample size (only 24 games worth for all teams, but 52 for the Giants/Jets), there must be a bias in the data. To fix this I switched the road points/passing yards/rushing yards per game with the leave averages over this time, which was 42 points, 409 passing yards, and 245 rushing yards. Here are the adjusted factors.

NFL Adjusted Stadium Factors

Team	Stadium	Point	Pass	Rush
Atlanta Falcons	Georgia Dome	1.07	0.99	1.05
Seattle Seahawks	Qwest Field	1.05	1.00	1.02
Minnesota Vikings	H.H.H. Metrodome	1.05	1.05	0.97
Tennessee Titans	LP Field	1.05	1.03	1.00
Kansas City Chiefs	Arrowhead Stadium	1.04	1.04	1.01
St. Louis Rams	Edward Jones Dome	1.04	1.03	1.03
Indianapolis Colts	RCA Dome/Lucas Oil Stadium	1.04	1.08	0.96
Baltimore Ravens	M&T Bank Stadium	1.03	0.99	0.97
Arizona Cardinals	University of Phoenix Stadium	1.03	1.03	0.91
Houston Texans	Reliant Stadium	1.02	0.98	1.01
San Diego Chargers	Qualcomm Stadium	1.02	1.00	1.01
Philadelphia Eagles	Lincoln Financial Field	1.02	1.02	0.98
Detroit Lions	Ford Field	1.02	1.04	0.95
Miami Dolphins	Dolphin Stadium	1.01	1.02	0.96
Cincinnati Bengals	Paul Brown Stadium	1.01	0.98	1.01
Denver Broncos	Invesco Field (Mile High)	1.00	1.00	1.04
Buffalo Bills	Ralph Wilson Stadium	1.00	0.88	1.04
San Francisco 49ers	Candlestick Park	0.99	1.02	0.95
New York Jets/Giants	Giants Stadium/Meadowlands	0.99	0.94	1.01
Dallas Cowboys	Texas Stadium	0.99	1.05	0.94
Oakland Raiders	Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum	0.98	1.01	0.96
Pittsburgh Steelers	Heinz Field	0.98	0.98	1.01
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Raymond James Stadium	0.97	0.92	1.02
Washington Redskins	FedExField	0.97	0.97	0.99
Jacksonville Jaguars	Jacksonville Municipal Stadium	0.96	0.96	1.02
New Orleans Saints	Louisiana Superdome	0.96	1.02	0.94
Chicago Bears	Soldier Field	0.96	0.98	0.98
Green Bay Packers	Lambeau Field	0.96	0.94	1.00
New England Patriots	Gillette Stadium	0.94	0.99	0.93
Carolina Panthers	Bank of America Stadium	0.92	0.98	0.93
Cleveland Browns	Cleveland Browns Stadium	0.90	0.92	1.06

What do you know, the Panthers are still at the bottom of the list. I would call that an aberration¹. Four of the bottom five teams are all in snowy, cold-weather portions of the U.S. Four of the top seven teams are all in domes. See a trend? Yes, the wintry weather does affect offenses, especially in the selected cold-weather stadia. If you have Braylon Edwards, don't be afraid to bench him for someone such as Anthony Gonzalez during the fantasy playoffs. When Aaron Rodgers and Matt Forte put up sub-par games when the Packers and Bears face each other in Week 16, don't say I didn't warn you. ____ ¹I update a list of these stadium factors weekly on my Web site, using data from 2005 through the current week. The latest edition has the Panthers exactly average in the points factor. We would never shoot ourselves in the leg. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Stat Boy Saturday: How Do Backups-Turned-Starters Perform?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week, with the injury of Earnest Graham, he throws out the charts and graphs dealing with a backup's performance after he gains the starting role. It's that time of year again. Remember last year? Three running backs who produced as top-15 running backs, after their incumbent running back got injured—Cadillac Williams and Michael Pittman in the case of Earnest Graham (whom himself might be one of those to allow a backup major opportunities this year); Brandon Jackson and Deshawn Wynn for Ryan Grant; and LaMont Jordan and Dominic Rhodes for Justin Fargas. As just noted, Earnest Graham was placed on the IR and Warrick Dunn was subsequently proclaimed as the next pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson. Even I succumbed to this, choosing Dunn as my mancrush of the week (which haven't been posted yet, by the way). Conservatives will point to Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Kenneth Darby, and Antonio Pittman as reasons to why backups-turned-starters (BTS) never perform. Others will point to the three backs mentioned above, Graham, Grant, and Fargas. Who is right? And does the experience of a BTS even matter? Looking at every top-30 back's game-by-game logs from 2005-2007, I chose 22 running back whose game-by-game carries showed that they were a BTS. My criteria for choosing these 22 was that they must have single digit carries in a significant amount of games, or in three or more games. I then lowered that to 18, getting rid of those who had carry totals that fluctuated every week, and found 19 stretches of games in which they looked to go from a backup to a starter. One player had two of these, hence the 19 (which I'll simply call players and not stretches). Yes, it's selective sampling, but it beats just looking at games started or not started, because some players in timeshares tend to get a starting job midway through the year but have the number of attempts stay the same, which is not what I was looking for. Here are the charts showing the average amount of attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and fantasy points for each number game started. There were 17 players in the first game played, 17 in the second, 16 in the third, then 14, 11, 9, 7, 7, 6, 2, and finally 2 in the 11th game played. Realize that the 10th and 11th games should definitely not be looked at due to the low number of players, but I included them anyway. (For reference, the pre-starter per-game averages of these 19 players was 6.4 attempts, 30.2 rushing yards, 0.2 touchdowns, and 5.8 fantasy points.) Click on pictures for larger view. Although the graphs look inconsistent, check out what each dot actually means. The lowest average of attempts was just less than 16, yards just less than 70, and fantasy points just less than 12. I suggest a BTS's fourth game as the proving point. The fourth game had higher stats than every game before it except in fantasy points, where a BTS's second game had .13 more fantasy points than his fourth. So in conclusion, you can trust backups-turned-starters on your fantasy team. You won't know exactly what stats they'll put up, but you know that they'll put up No. 2 or even No. 1 running back numbers. That's more reason as to why Warrick Dunn will be the next pre-2008 LaDainian Tomlinson Earnest Graham. Ironic, huh? We'd take a homeless man to the movies, too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.
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Stat Boy Saturday: Looking Ahead to the Playoffs, Part II

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he continues last week's article on fantasy playoff performances. It's good to know one of our own isn't falling into the trap. Read Tosten's News From Ball Street one more time. Now read it again. See any mention of fantasy playoff schedules? I'm sad to say that Ken Daube of ESPN.com is the most recent fantasy pundit to fall into the trap of looking ahead to stretch-run and fantasy playoff strength of schedule. As ESPN's own numbers guy, shouldn't he know better? Last week I looked at that topic and indeed found there was no correlation of regular season and fantasy playoff performance. I concluded that just because a team was poor against the pass from Weeks 1 through 12, doesn't necessarily mean that they'd do poor against the pass for the remainder of the year. This week, I did the same for individual players. In the sample I used the top 12 quarterbacks and the top 15 running backs and wideouts from 2005-2007 (not a huge sample size, I know, but the Web site from which I got this data had week-by-week game logs dating back to only 2005). Since some players don't have much playing time in Week 17, I used Weeks 1 through 11 as the "regular season" and 12 through 16 as the "fantasy playoffs." Here are the correlations for each position, in fantasy points scored*:

Fan. Points Correlation

Pos.	r	r2
QBs	0.30	0.09
RBs	0.23	0.05
WRs	-0.04	0.00

As with the previous article on this subject, there's no meaningful connection between regular season and fantasy playoff performance. Wide receivers' playoff production is essentially a pick-a-number-from-a-hat situation—you can't predict it whatsoever. Now, here're the correlations if you split each position up into three tiers—the top 12, middle 12, and bottom 12 in the 36-player quarterback sample, or equivalent to the QBs ranked Nos. 1 through 4, Nos. 5 through 8, and Nos. 9 through 12; and the top 15, middle 15, and bottom 15 in the 45-player running back and wide receiver sample, or equivalent to the top 5, etc. You might want to take this with a grain of salt as the sample size is so small, by the way.

Correlation of Tiers

Pos.	r	r2
	Top Tier
QBs	0.58	0.34
RBs	0.02	0.00
WRs	0.12	0.02
	Middle Tier
QBs	0.45	0.20
RBs	0.32	0.10
WRs	-0.12	0.01
	Bottom Tier
QBs	-0.25	0.06
RBs	-0.43	0.19
WRs	-0.48	0.23

One thing first: All positions in the bottom tier have a negative r. This is most likely due to all the players (such as Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham, Ladell Betts, et al) whose late-season performance vaulted them into the top 15. The highest correlations go to the quarterbacks, but an r-squared of .34 still is not very significant in predicting a player's playoff performance. What does all this mean, then? It means that there will still be those fantasy playoff flukes—Billy Volek circa 2004—that raise a borderline playoff team in your fantasy league to the championship. It means that there will still be those fantasy playoff busts—Chad Johnson Ocho Cinco Johnson circa 2007—that screw over the No. 1 seed to a first-round loss to the fourth-ranked team. It means that there will be fantasy experts that'll be berated for ranking Player A over Player B, after Player A throws three picks and no touchdowns and Player B throws for 300 yards and two scores, even though the stats say that it's extraordinarily difficult to predict a player's playoff performance. And it means that, once again, you'll lose before reaching the finals due to your No. 1 pick's putting up single-digit fantasy points for the first time all year. It happens.
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Stat Boy Saturday: Looking at Playoff Schedules—Could It Be Bad?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he gets the dirt on fantasy playoff schedules. So your league's trading deadline is coming up soon. If you're near the top of the standings, it would make sense to trade for a high upside player with an easy schedule in the fantasy football playoffs. Owners scrambling to make the playoffs would want to trade an injured player for one that would help them now. The Football Outsiders guys conveniently looked into this on Thursday, by spotting players with the easiest playoff schedules based on their now-to-the-end-of-season projections. Seems nice enough, right? That depends on if a team's early-season performance actual correlates with their fantasy playoff performance. It would make sense that if a team is bad from Weeks 1 through 12, they must be bad from Weeks 13 through 17, and vice versa for good teams. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend. Using all teams since 2002, I checked the correlation of their regular season performance and their fantasy playoff performance. The results will shock you.

Correlation of Weeks 1-12 and 13-17

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.215	0.046
PassYd_all	0.129	0.017
RushYd_all	0.381	0.145
Takeaways	0.111	0.012

Let me help you understand the numbers. The higher the r and r-squared (r2) are, the more related the stat is from the regular season to the playoffs. The r-squared effectively says how many of the teams' playoff performance were predicted based on their regular season performance. An r-squared of .7 or higher is considered good, anything under .5 is considered to be a bad set of data, and anything under .2 is considered to have no correlation whatsoever. In other words, only 4.6 percent of all 192 teams in the sample had a points allowed per game in the fantasy playoffs that could be predicted by their regular season points allowed per game. The numbers show that a team's points allowed, passing yards allowed, and turnovers are essentially a tossup in the fantasy playoffs. Rushing yards allowed does much better than those three, but it still is basically a coin flip as to whether a team's regular season play will predict their playoff performance. The next three tables show the correlations of teams ranked in the top 60 of all 192 teams in the sample (represents the top 10 in any given year), teams ranked in the bottom 60 (bottom 10), and all teams in the middle (teams ranked from 11-21) in each stat based on regular season play. I excluded takeaways because there were many ties and the sample size was too small (there's only 15 or so by a team in a year, so of course it would have a low correlation).

Top 10 Teams

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.231	0.053
PassYd_all	0.088	0.008
RushYd_all	0.133	0.018

Teams ranked 11-21

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.257	0.066
PassYd_all	0.032	0.001
RushYd_all	0.027	0.001

Bottom 10 Teams

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.107	0.012
PassYd_all	-0.048	0.002
RushYd_all	0.019	0.000

Again, no correlation whatsoever. In fact, you get better r's and r's-squared if you use every team than by splitting them up into tiers. By the way, there's a -0.048 r for passing yards allowed by the bottom 10 teams. That means as passing yards allowed in the regular season go up, it goes down in the playoffs. I find that hilarious, even if it's just -0.048. The main point of all of this is don't make trades or assess players based on their fantasy playoff schedule. The stats show that you can't predict at all a team's defensive play based on their early-season performance. Sorry, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, and Lee Evans owners. It doesn't even have to be a question. Just send us an e-mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Stat Boy Saturday: How Often Are Players Involved in a Game?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he looks at the percentage of a team's plays that go to specific players. We fantasy footballers know the difference of real football and, well, fake football. NFL analysts think of the best players as those who do the most with the least opportunities, such as Marion Barber, prior to this year. But in fantasy, it's about which players do the most, period. In other sports, too, this holds up well. In basketball, for example, some analysts look at a player's stats prorated to a certain amount of minutes per game (usually 48 minutes). However, all that matters in fantasy is the stats a player puts up in his playing time—no matter if he gets 20 or 40 minutes per game. Likewise, the same goes for fantasy football. Yes, Jerious Norwood has a 6.3 YPC, but he's only had 45 carries on the year. Ryan Grant has just a 3.4 YPC, but has 137 carries on the year. Norwood has done more with less, but Grant has done less with a whole lot more. Following this idea, I looked at the percentage of a team's plays is directed at a certain player. (By directed I mean attempts plus rushes plus sacks for quarterbacks; and rushes plus targets for running backs and wide receivers.) I first found each of those stats on a per-game basis, so a player like Anquan Boldin doesn't get punished for missing time and gets counted with zero plays in games in which he didn't play; then I divided a player's "plays" per game by his team's plays per game. Here are the results, using the starting QBs for each team; the top-50 backs in plays per game; and the top-60 wideouts in plays per game, substituting Marques Colston (outside top 60) for Nate Burleson (out for the year):

Quarterbacks

Name	Team	Play/G	%Plays
Peyton Manning	IND	40.7	67.2%
David Garrard	JAC	40.0	63.3%
Jay Cutler	DEN	39.9	63.1%
Matt Schaub	HOU	40.7	62.7%
Kurt Warner	ARI	40.9	62.6%
Donovan McNabb	PHI	39.1	62.6%
Drew Brees	NO	40.3	62.3%
J.T. O'Sullivan	SF	35.0	61.6%
Aaron Rodgers	GNB	37.7	61.1%
Brett Favre	NYJ	37.4	60.6%
Derek Anderson	CLE	34.3	59.9%
Gus Frerotte	MIN	40.0	59.7%
Tony Romo	DAL	36.3	59.3%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	CIN	34.6	57.8%
Philip Rivers	SD	31.6	57.5%
Marc Bulger	STL	32.5	57.4%
Dan Orlovsky	DET	31.0	57.4%
Kyle Orton	CHI	36.4	56.2%
Matt Cassel	NE	36.6	55.9%
Matt Hasselbeck	SEA	32.3	55.8%
Chad Pennington	MIA	32.1	54.1%
Matt Ryan	ATL	33.4	54.0%
Eli Manning	NYG	34.1	53.6%
Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	31.1	53.0%
JaMarcus Russell	OAK	32.0	52.8%
Jason Campbell	WAS	33.8	52.4%
Trent Edwards	BUF	31.0	51.8%
Jake Delhomme	CAR	31.5	51.5%
Jeff Garcia	TAM	34.2	50.9%
Kerry Collins	TEN	31.0	50.3%
Tyler Thigpen	KAN	30.0	49.4%
Joe Flacco	BAL	32.4	48.7%

• Look at the bottom of the list, from Matt Ryan down. One thing in common for all of them (except Tyler Thigpen)? They have a very nice running back or two. Now, I wouldn't worry too much about Trent Edwards being so low—his game in which he went out with a concussion was included—but I am worrying about Big Ben. He has over 200 yards in just two games and over 30 attempts in just one. In his past five games, he's averaging just over 11 fantasy points per game. Sell high (that's not even the right word...) if you can.
• J.T. O'Sullivan is eighth. He was benched. And now Shaun Hill is their quarterback—get him if you can.
• It's too late to get Matt Schaub, who is averaging 23 fantasy points in his last three games, but I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes as a top-five QB on a per-game basis (only because he missed the Indianapolis game).
• The top two quarterbacks on this list are 10th and 11th, respectively, in fantasy points. That said, Peyton has 16 fantasy points per game and Garrard has almost 20 in their last four games.

Running Backs

Name	Team	Play/G	%Plays
Steven Jackson	STL	25.7	45.4%
LaDainian Tomlinson	SD	22.9	41.6%
Matt Forte	CHI	25.9	39.9%
Frank Gore	SF	22.6	39.2%
Marion Barber	DAL	23.9	39.0%
Clinton Portis	WAS	24.9	38.6%
Willie Parker	PIT	22.3	38.0%
Adrian Peterson	MIN	24.7	36.9%
Marshawn Lynch	BUF	21.9	36.5%
Jamal Lewis	CLE	20.7	36.2%
Michael Turner	ATL	21.4	34.6%
Chris Johnson	TEN	21.3	34.6%
Ryan Grant	GB	20.3	32.9%
Larry Johnson	KC	19.8	32.6%
Thomas Jones	NYJ	19.9	32.2%
Brian Westbrook	PHI	19.8	31.6%
Reggie Bush	NO	20.4	31.6%
Julius Jones	SEA	17.3	30.4%
Willis McGahee	BAL	19.2	28.8%
Steve Slaton	HOU	18.1	28.0%
DeAngelo Williams	CAR	17.0	27.8%
Brandon Jacobs	NYG	17.7	27.8%
Justin Fargas	OAK	16.6	27.4%
Ronnie Brown	MIA	16.3	27.4%
Edgerrin James	ARI	17.4	26.7%
Earnest Graham	TB	17.4	25.9%
Chris Perry	CIN	15.4	25.7%
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	14.9	23.5%
Dominic Rhodes	IND	14.1	23.3%
Joseph Addai	IND	14.0	23.1%
Warrick Dunn	TB	15.1	22.5%
LenDale White	TEN	13.6	22.0%
Darren McFadden	OAK	13.3	22.0%
Sammy Morris	NE	14.2	21.7%
Kevin Smith	DET	11.6	21.4%
Jonathan Stewart	CAR	13.0	21.3%
Fred Taylor	JAC	13.4	21.3%
Ricky Williams	MIA	12.4	20.9%
Le'Ron McClain	BAL	13.9	20.8%
Mewelde Moore	PIT	12.0	20.4%
Deuce McAllister	NO	13.0	20.1%
Cedric Benson	CIN	11.5	19.2%
Derrick Ward	NYG	11.7	18.4%
Michael Pittman	DEN	11.4	18.1%
Correll Buckhalter	PHI	10.9	17.4%
Ahman Green	HOU	11.2	17.3%
Selvin Young	DEN	10.8	17.1%
Jerious Norwood	ATL	10.1	16.4%
Tim Hightower	ARI	10.3	15.8%
Kevin Faulk	NE	10.2	15.5%

• There's less change at the top in this list than for the QBs. The only concern I can think of with the top is that the Bears may be overusing Matt Forte, a la Cadillac Williams.
• The other name that sticks out is Willie Parker. If you can get him while he's injured and just getting back into the groove, do it. It'll pay off when he gets 25 touches a game when he's healthy.
• The highest player in a timeshare is Chris Johnson at No. 12, followed by Julius Jones and Willis McGahee at No. 18 and 19, respectively. Interestingly, LenDale White is only at No. 32 despite his very high fantasy value.

Wide Receivers

Name	Team	Play/G	%Plays
Brandon Marshall	DEN	13.5	21.4%
Andre Johnson	HOU	11.9	18.3%
Dwayne Bowe	KC	10.6	17.4%
Roddy White	ATL	10.4	16.9%
Steve Smith	CAR	10.0	16.4%
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	CIN	9.6	16.1%
Reggie Wayne	IND	9.3	15.3%
Calvin Johnson	DET	8.1	15.1%
Eddie Royal	DEN	9.5	15.0%
Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	9.7	14.9%
Wes Welker	NE	9.7	14.8%
Anquan Boldin	ARI	9.6	14.7%
DeSean Jackson	PHI	8.9	14.6%
Matt Jones	JAC	9.1	14.5%
Terrell Owens	DAL	8.5	13.9%
Braylon Edwards	CLE	7.9	13.7%
Laveranues Coles	NYJ	8.3	13.4%
Plaxico Burress	NYG	8.3	13.1%
Santana Moss	WAS	8.4	13.0%
Greg Jennings	GB	8.0	13.0%
Hines Ward	PIT	7.6	12.9%
Greg Camarillo	MIA	7.6	12.7%
Muhsin Muhammad	CAR	7.8	12.7%
Jerricho Cotchery	NYJ	7.7	12.5%
Bobby Engram	SEA	7.0	12.3%
Lee Evans	BUF	7.3	12.2%
Vincent Jackson	SD	6.6	12.0%
Santonio Holmes	PIT	7.0	11.9%
Chad Johnson	CIN	7.1	11.9%
Torry Holt	STL	6.7	11.9%
Steve Breaston	ARI	7.7	11.8%
Marvin Harrison	IND	7.1	11.8%
Antonio Bryant	TB	7.9	11.7%
Bernard Berrian	MIN	7.9	11.7%
Roy Williams	DAL	6.3	11.6%*
Randy Moss	NE	7.6	11.6%
Joey Galloway	TB	7.7	11.4%
Derrick Mason	BAL	7.6	11.4%
Justin Gage	TEN	6.8	11.0%
Donnie Avery	STL	6.2	10.9%
Lance Moore	NO	6.9	10.6%
Reggie Brown	PHI	6.3	10.5%
Chris Chambers	SD	5.7	10.3%
Donald Driver	GB	6.3	10.2%
Kevin Walter	HOU	6.6	10.1%
Bobby Wade	MIN	6.7	10.0%
Anthony Gonzalez	IND	6.0	9.9%
Kevin Curtis	PHI	6.0	9.9%
Ted Ginn Jr.	MIA	5.9	9.9%
Brandon Lloyd	CHI	6.3	9.6%
Isaac Bruce	SF	5.5	9.5%
Antwaan Randle El	WAS	6.1	9.5%
Brandon Stokley	DEN	6.0	9.5%
Donte' Stallworth	CLE	5.3	9.3%
Arnaz Battle	SF	5.4	9.3%
Justin McCareins	TEN	5.7	9.2%
Amani Toomer	NYG	5.9	9.2%
Patrick Crayton	DAL	5.4	8.8%
Steve Smith	NYG	5.4	8.5%
Marques Colston	NO	4.3	6.7%

*Roy Williams' play% calculated using Detroit's plays per game.

• I also noted this in my closer look at WR targets, but it needs to be repeated: Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal are hugely involved in their respective offenses when they play. Bowe and Royal, with their low fantasy values, are great buy lows.
• It's a shame that Matt Jones is about the be suspended—he was starting to evolve into a nice fantasy starter. I still think he's a top-25 wideout until he's suspended, however.
• Need a deep sleeper at WR? Check out Greg Camarillo. He's averaging only seven points per game in his past five games, but his schedule is a breeze from here on out.
• Steve Breaston had nine catches for 90 yards last week despite Boldin's being back; in his past four weeks he's averaging eight catches for 100 yards.

Just ask your questions, please. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.
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