Stat Boy Saturday: Predicting Week 17 Rest

The number of articles produced by Fantasy Football Writers With Hair has gradually gone down in the last four weeks. Then I realized it. We're the New York Giants. Think about it: Tosten is Brandon Jacobs, Gage is Plaxico Burress, Alex is Eli Manning, and I am Derrick Ward. Tosten never missed an article or deadline, and he was a No. 1 fantasy writer until he got sick after posting a Donovan McNabb news update on Nov. 24. He recovered the following week, but then missed this week with a hamstring injury (or maybe not); Jacobs was a No. 1 back until he missed a Nov. 23 game against the Cardinals. He recovered and performed nicely in the next two weeks until missing last week with an injury. Gage showed up for the first few weeks of the year, giving his mancrushes weekly (but forgetting about the HAIRY's). Then he had some personal and family business that took up most of his time, and got it resolved to resume his posting duties. Plaxico Burress was a nice No. 2 wideout in the first half of the year. Then he had personal business to deal with (his shooting, obviously), and was suspended for the rest of the year. Although Gage came back from his issues, the comparison still stands. Alex and I are Manning and Ward, respectively, because we can be counted on week after week, as we never miss an article or deadline.

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The Giants are major candidates to rest their starters next week if a simple turn of events occurs. Like us. If teams don't rest their stars next week, then there's no news for us to spin, no pickups to write about, no no-name players to mancrush (yes, it's a verb, too). But how can we tell which teams will sit their starters next week, which is the final week in some or most fantasy leagues? Every team locked into a playoff spot rest their stars, right? I was looking to bust that notion. I looked at every single player who played from 2004-2007 with more than 250 pass attempts, 150 rush attempts, or 50 receptions, and from their game-by-game performances, saw if they sat in Week 17 or did not. In order to reduce bias, I deleted the player's name and team when picking out whether the player rested, so as to not try and pick players on good or bad teams purposefully. If a player had 30 attempts in four straight games, then 12 in Week 17, he was classified as being rested. I came out with 15 rested QBs, 11 running backs, and 10 wide receivers. There were probably more wideouts than that, but because of the overall volatility of wideouts, if was hard to find which ones were rested and which ones just had a bad outing. After spotting the rested players, I looked at their team's wins to see if there was a trend. And there was.

Team Wins of Rested Player

QBs	RBs	WRs
10	10	10
12	12	13
13	10	10
11	14	14
10	10	11
13	12	11
14	13	13
11	10	14
11	13	10
13	9	12
10	13
13
13
13
13
Avg = 12	Avg = 11.5	Avg = 11.8
10+ win %	10+ win %	10+ win %
36.6%	24.4%	22.0%
13+ win %	13+ win %	13+ win %
61.5%	30.8%	23.1%

*Two players on 2005 Colts were rested. The two 14 wins were counted in the average, but only was was counted in the percentages. **10+ win % and 13+ win % represent how many 10-win (or more) and 13-win (or more) teams rested players. There were 41 10-win teams from 2004-2007, and 15 of those rested a QB; 15 divided by 41 is 36.6 percent. What this shows is that you shouldn't worry about running backs or wideouts being rested nearly as much as quarterbacks; even if your RB or WR sits, his attempts or receptions usually aren't that less than their seasonal numbers. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, get much more rest in Week 17 games than backs or wideouts. If you have a QB on a locked playoff team, you should definitely try to find a replacement—more than one-third of the time, the Week 17 attempts of a QB on a playoff team (a 10-win team) are substantially different than their pre-Week 17 numbers. The Giants, Panthers, Titans, Colts, and Steelers all look like they will rest their starters; the Colts already are lokced into the No. 5 seed, and the other four play each other this week and should have their spots locked in after their games. The Cardinals also have locked up a playoff slot and seed; they should rest their stars too. Whether you're in your finals or not, look out for teams resting their stars. We really hope that there is something to write about next week. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com