Straight Outta the Man Cave: Week 6 Mancrushes

Is there a better activity in the world than chilling down in the man cave discussing football and girls? Red blooded American males say it in unison, "No." Of course not. This is why every Thursday (Or in this week's case, late Saturday) FFWWH will let you all in on our own couch talk about football. And girls. And football playing girls. The down side? Football playing girls don't matter in the type of fantasy football that this site is specifically about. So uhh, we kind of had to improvise and work with what we have. So, umm, this feature will be about our mancrushes. (Ya, ya, cue the "figures, he's from California" jokes, blah, blah.) Moving on. Here's each of our respective man crushes for week 6. A-Koz I called him a sleeper last year. I was wrong—way wrong. I think that I was a year ahead of myself. Believe it or not, but Visanthe Shiancoe is ranked eighth among all tight end's this year. Gus Ferrotte is a lot more willing to throw the ball to his TE than Tarvarais Jackson was last year and early this season. With the Vikings going against a terrible Lions defense that gave up over 300 yards to Kyle Orton and the Bears last week, Shiancoe is a sleeper in my books. Stat Boy He isn't Sexy Rexy, but he is the Big KO. Kyle Orton is my mancrush of the week. Over the past three weeks, Orton has the third-most fantasy points per game among quarterbacks (over 17, behind only Drew Brees and Brett Favre), the fourth-most passing yards, and the second-most touchdowns passes with seven scores. This week he plays a Falcons team that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game, the most touchdowns per game, and the fifth-most yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. (Those stats excluding the Chiefs game when terrible Tyler Thigpen was quarterback.) Orton should be good for 300 yards and two or three scores this week against the Falcons. He's a top-seven QB this week and a must-start in all formats. Tosten It's ironic. Being so good at one thing but so mediocre at something else. Not Kanye West and his less-than-good vocoder "enhanced" sing star moment coming from an all time great rapper. The Chicago Bears defense. The squad that is fourth in the league against the run is 23rd against the pass. In other words, the Atlanta Falcons will rely on Roddy White and the passing game rather than Michael Turner and the running game to keep the offense moving. Rookie Matt Ryan could be a decent start, but White, who is third in the NFL in receiving yards, is as solid as any wide out in the league for week six, especially with the Falcons likely to be playing from behind against Kanye's Chi-town. New Guy His mancrush article went M.I.A. this week. He's like the Rams' defense. Neither of them show up.
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Double Coverage

The feature everyone loved in the preseason, Double Coverage, is back this week. There have been many dynamic duos in history. Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison. Batman and Robin. Peanut butter and jelly. And today, we bring you yet another great duo. Tosten and I will be giving our views on a player each week; one of us for him, and one of us against him. Today's topic: Denver Broncos running back Michael Pittman.

A-Koz: Start Pittman There's no Selvin Young in the lineup for Denver this week. Ditto for Tony Scheffler. Two of Denver's better offensive weapons have both been ruled out because of groin injuries. For once, we may actually have an idea who the main back will be in the Mike Shanahan offense. That guy is Michael Pittman. Even before Young got hurt, Pittman was getting the majority of the red zone carries for Denver. Granted, you know my feelings on guys who are too reliant on getting red zone carries and touchdowns (see any of my rants on Joseph Addai), but that won't be the case for Pittman this week. He should see a lot of carries, giving him plenty of chances to rack up yards. The Jacksonville run defense isn't the same without Marcus Stroud. Their run defense is ranked a mere 15th in the league, a far cry from their usual stout self. This was also a defense that allowed a Pittsburgh Steelers offense that was without three running backs last week to run for over 100 yards. Weak, Jacksonville. But you know who will be strong? Michael Pittman.

Tosten Burks: Bench him Yes, Selvin Young is out on Sunday. And yes, Michael Pittman has been the most productive Denver running back other than Young so far this year. But Mike Shanahan is also the spawn of Hades and the sky is also blue. What does that mean? Start Andre Hall. Michael Pittman is a goal line back, nothing more. Hall, coming in at 10 pounds lighter than Pittman, is more in the mold of a between-the-20s tailback, and unless Shanny has Ryan Torain on his fantasy team or something, Hall will be the main beneficiary of Selvin Young's groin injury. This isn't to say that Pittman is necessarily a bad start—Scheffler being out could possibly translate to more goal line touches for the goal line back, Pittman, so he could step up as he has so far this year and pick up a score or two down in the red zone. But Hall is the guy who will get the yards and the majority of looks out of the backfield.

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Stat Boy Saturday: A Closer Look at Wide Receiver Targets

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for you fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he looks at the amount of targets receivers get based on their quarterback's attempts. I've simply been amazed at how often Matt Ryan throws to Roddy White. Half of Ryan's yards and touchdown passes have gone to White. In comparison, the leader in reception yards, Greg Jennings, only has 45 percent of Aaron Rodger's passing yards and a third of Rodgers' nine touchdowns. A more appropriate statistic is targets. The main principle of targets is that wide receivers can't create their own opportunities; instead, they can only perform with the passes thrown to them. A player with 20 catches and 50 targets is more valuable than one with the same amount of receptions but half the targets. Thus, I looked at not the amount of targets a receiver has received, but the amount of targets divided by his quarterback's amount of pass attempts. This creates a balance for pass-heavy and run-heavy teams, and can also judge how a player's targets fluctuate with his current quarterback and backup quarterback (with the condition that the WR's team has employed more than one QB this year). There are two provisions here, however. For teams who changed QBs mid-game, I did my best to count the amount of targets a player had through NFL.com's play-by-play data with both QBs. But I didn't check the play-by-play if a team used two quarterbacks in a game, and one had very few attempts (Kerry Collins in week one and Kevin O'Connell in week three, for example). In that case I just counted the backup's attempts as the starter's. Please note that I only counted attempts in games that the receiver played. This way, Bobby Engram doesn't get counted with only 12 targets in Matt Hasselbeck's 100-plus attempts. I included the top 50 receivers in targets per games played, and also a few notable ones that didn't make the cut (Chris Chambers, Donald Driver, etc). I kept Dwayne Bowe separate from the other receivers, because he was the only one to have three quarterbacks. (And yes, I know Brian Griese is now the backup in Tampa Bay, but I left him as the starter for simplicity.)

Percent of QB Attempts = Targets

Player	QB_current	%current	QB_backup	%backup
Dwayne Bowe KC	-	-	Huard	39.3
-	-	-	Croyle	36.8
-	-	-	Thigpen	31.6
Brandon Marshall DEN	Cutler	51.5	-	-
Bobby Engram SEA	Hasselbeck	44.4	-	-
Steve Smith CAR	Delhomme	41.3	-	-
Roddy White ATL	Ryan	33.6	-	-
Eddie Royal DEN	Cutler	32.8	-	-
Wes Welker NE	Cassel	32.7	Brady	45.5
Justin Gage TEN	Collins	32.1	Young	20.8
T.J. Houshmandzadeh CIN	Palmer	31.5	Fitzpatrick	20.0
Derrick Mason BAL	Flacco	31.1	-	-
Muhsin Muhammad CAR	Delhomme	28.9	-	-
Calvin Johnson DET	Kitna	28.8	Orlovsky	8.7
Santana Moss WAS	Campbell	28.8	-	-
Hines Ward PIT	Roethlisberger	27.6	-	-
Larry Fitzgerald ARI	Warner	27.0	-	-
Greg Jennings GB	Rodgers	26.8	-	-
Andre Johnson HOU	Schaub	26.4	Rosenfels	25.6
Plaxico Burress NYG	E.Manning	26.2	-	-
Braylon Edwards CLE	Anderson	25.6	-	-
Brandon Stokley DEN	Cutler	25.6	-	-
Santonio Holmes PIT	Roethlisberger	25.4	-	-
Matt Jones JAC	Garrard	24.8	-	-
Reggie Wayne IND	P.Manning	24.7	-	-
Justin McCareins TEN	Collins	24.6	Young	12.5
Anquan Boldin ARI	Warner	24.5	-	-
Bernard Berrian MIN	Frerotte	24.3	Jackson	18.6
Terrell Owens DAL	Romo	24.1	-	-
Amani Toomer NYG	E.Manning	23.3	-	-
Greg Camarillo MIA	Pennington	23.2	Henne	8.3
Laveranues Coles NYJ	Favre	22.5	-	-
Bobby Wade MIN	Frerotte	22.4	Jackson	15.3
Antonio Bryant TB	Griese	21.8	Garcia	25.9
Vincent Jackson SD	Rivers	21.7	-	-
Billy McMullen SEA	Hasselbeck	21.7	-	-
Roy Williams DET	Kitna	21.6	Orlovsky	39.1
Randy Moss NE	Cassel	21.2	Brady	27.3
Antwaan Randle El WAS	Campbell	20.9	-	-
Brandon Lloyd CHI	Orton	20.7	-	-
Lee Evans BUF	Edwards	20.5	Losman	23.8
Marvin Harrison IND	P.Manning	20.1	-	-
DeSean Jackson PHI	McNabb	20.1	-	-
Kevin Walter HOU	Schaub	20.0	Rosenfels	9.3
Isaac Bruce SF	O'Sullivan	20.0	-	-
Jerricho Cotchery NYJ	Favre	19.4	-	-
Torry Holt STL	Bulger	19.1	Green	21.9
Chris Chambers SD	Rivers	17.4	-	-
Chad Johnson CIN	Palmer	16.9	Fitzpatrick	20.0
Anthony Gonzalez IND	P.Manning	16.9	-	-
Donald Driver GB	Rodgers	16.7	-	-
Reggie Brown PHI	McNabb	16.7	-	-
Steve Breaston ARI	Warner	16.2	-	-
Lance Moore NO	Brees	16.0	-	-
Patrick Crayton DAL	Romo	15.4	-	-
Joey Galloway TB	Griese	12.9	Garcia	31.7
Ike Hilliard TB	Griese	10.9	Garcia	17.2

• Jeff Garcia will start this week. All of the Bucs receivers in the table had their target percentage improve with Garcia as QB; upgrade the three of them this week as the Bucs play the Panthers. Don't forget that the Panthers have a stout run defense, so the Bucs will be passing all day long.
• I have been saying that Gage is a someone to pick up for some time now. Going back to week 10 of last year and this year (11 games total), Gage has had under 40 yards just twice and 60 yards just four times, and almost all of those game were with Vince Young under center. In his two games with Kerry Collins this year, Gage has ten receptions for 150 yards and a score.
• I love Bobby Engram. He's the only guy left in the Seahawks' receiving core—seriously—and Matt Hasselbeck should be targeting him all day long. That was shown last week as Engram had the fourth-most targets, with 12.
• Dan Orlovsky is rumored to be the starter in Detroit for this week as Kitna's back heals. In just one half last week, Orlovsky targeted Roy Williams nine times, compared to just two to Calvin Johnson. Williams is a top-15 receiver for this week, while I don't see Johnson as a starter in standard leagues, which start a total of 24 receivers and a flex.
• Muhsin Muhammad is a top-25 receiver for the rest of the year. I said it. He has 220 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games, and his schedule (TB, NO, ARI, bye, OAK, DET, ATL, GNB) in the next eight weeks is extremely easy.
• If you're in a points-per-reception league and have Kevin Walter, don't worry. Sage "Hey Mom, look! No hands!" Rosenfels rarely targeted him, but that should change with Matt Schaub taking back the job this week.

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Weekend Recap: Week 5

"A psychic once told me I was psychic." Those were the words spoken by Dr. House, played by Hugh Laurie, on the T.V. show House*.Think about how much easier it'd be to play fantasy football if you knew exactly what was going to happen each week. Of course, it'd take a lot of the fun out of the game, but you'd sure as heck be the champion of your league! But alas, we aren't psychic. We only have two things: educated guesses—that's as close as you'll get to being psychic. And of course, hindsight. The thing that makes you kick yourself each week you've sat Ronnie Brown when he's blown up for big yards. Or the thing that makes you hate yourself for not giving up on Larry Johnson. (And yeah, I still refuse to give up on him.) Hindsight is truly 20/20. We'll look back on the highs and lows of Week 5. - Back-to-back strong performances from Kyle Orton. Who would've guessed it? Granted, it was against the Lions, but the Bears' pass offense is starting to show signs of life. - Tsk, tsk, Kansas City. I thought you finally had it figured out. Give LJ the ball and win football games. Looks like I was wrong. Seven carries for Larry Johnson isn't going to cut it. Herm Edwards apparently doesn't know "We PLAY to WIN the GAME." - Bo Scaife, not Alge Crumpler, is the Titans tight end you want. He's quickly become Kerry Collins' security blanket, including catching seven of Collins 17 completions against Baltimore. - All Giants are rolling. - All Seahawks aren't. - Jason Campbell and Clinton Portis are running strong (and literally, for Portis). Campbell has yet to make a turnover while Portis has been racking up yards against tough NFC East foes. - Warrick Dunn has quietly having a productive season. He's even starting to carry the ball more than Earnest Graham. (Dunn had 11 carries to Graham's ten yesterday.) Don't jump ship on Graham though; he's averaging an outstanding 5.9 YPC this season. - Matt Cassel is finding his playmakers. Good news for Randy Moss owners. - I've always liked Mike Walker. With an underwhelming Jags WR core, Walker stepped up against the Steelers. The coaches love his potential, and he could definitely be a late-year waiver wire pickup. *[Ed's Note: We hope that wasn't copyright infringement.]
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Week 4 Name Calling

Name Calling Is Our Weekly Feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. If there is any doubt about the credibility and accuracy if this little name calling start 'em sit 'em feature here, let my week four performance remove it. Not one of my predictions was wrong last week. It was a heroic, epic feat from which I hope all you readers benefited. It brought my overall record to a shiny 50% average. (Moving on now before you figure out what is really going on here...) Now that we are two weeks into the ugly bye week period, this segment is a bit harder to do. Less choices means less chance for success. Or I guess less chance for failure. That actually makes me feel a little better about my crappy predictions for week five. Who You Gonna Call Steve Slaton - There is only one thing that has hindered Steve Slaton's production this year, Chris Taylor stealing carries. Guess who is out with a quad injury this week? Taylor. The rookie will put up huge numbers against the Colts run defense that is the second-worst in football. Chad Pennington - Miami's week five opponent, the San Diego Chargers, has only failed once all year to yield a 275 yard quarterback—the exception came in week one against Carolina's Jake Delhomme who tossed 247 and one. This includes massive three-touchdown games by Brett Favre and Jay Cutler and even a nice little 277 and one performance by sophomore JaMarcus Russell. Pennington should be the next beneficiary of the struggling San Diego pass defense, especially with the return of the Bolts' Stephen Cooper who will shore up the front seven forcing the Fins to rely more on the passing game. T.J. Houshmandzadeh - This is the week the Bengals passing game looks good again. Carson Palmer has been looking good in practice and will be back on Sunday and Cincinnati will need him on Sunday against the Cowboys. Cincy will be surely be playing from behind quite a bit of the time, forcing them to air it out, and when the Bengals air it out, the only person I have confidence in performing right now is Housh. While Ocho Cinco and the rest of the offense has looked bad all year, TJ has at least shown flashes of his studly self. That self will emerge this weekend. Earnest Graham - Graham has actually looked very solid all season despite less-than-brilliant numbers. His stats have been deflated by his week three matchup at Chicago and their top notch run defense. He'll quietly perform again this week against the Broncos. Denver has been dominated by running backs all year. The Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden timeshare, Reggie Bush, and Larry Johnson have all killed them. The run D only doesn't look horrible on paper because a chunk of Bush's dominance came through the air and Oakland rolled through them with a time share that spread the stats around. See between the lines. Graham will add his name to the list week 5 and Warrick Dunn might not be a bad bye week or flex option either. On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always call, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to start some dude over LDT): RB's against Detroit, WR's against St. Louis, QB's against New York (Jets) Who You Not Gonna Call Clinton Portis - In the hyped match up of the week, the Skins play the Eagles. Philly has shut down Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, and Willie Parker and even held Marion Barber to 68 yards so far in 2008. Hopefully you have a better option so you don't have to see Portis be the next victim while in your starting line up. Julius Jones - With the Seahawks getting Bobby Engram and Deion Branch back this week I'd be surprised to see Seattle run the ball as much as they have so far in 2008 (101 rushes to 47 passes.) While this doesn't necessarily make Hasselbeck a solid start again because it would be naive to think that that passing game would return right away to the high powered air attack of the past, it hurts JuJo and the Seattle running backs. None of them has the talent to dominate with limited touches, so the decrease in opportunities will keep any member of the backfield from making a significant fantasy impact. Steve Breaston - Everyone is going bonkers for this guy, and it is undeserving, at least for this week. Yes, Anquan Boldin will not play on Sunday after the gruesome hit he received against the Jets last weekend and yes, Breaston will slide up into the starting line up in his absence. But no, he will not put up big numbers against the Buffalo Bills pass defense that is sixth in the league. Not On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always caller ID check and ignore, once again, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to sit Randy Moss) - RB's against Tennessee, Kyle Orton, Atlanta WR's, QB's against Pittsburgh
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Stat Boy Saturday: The Effects of In-Season Head Coaching Changes

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for you fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he dissects the affect of mid-season head coaching changes. We're still almost three months until Black Monday, the day when coaches on the hot seat receive their pink slips, yet already two coaches—Scott Linehan of the Rams and Lane Kiffin of the Raiders—have been fired. Fantasy owners need to know every bit of information about the new coaches for each team. Jim Haslett, Linehan's replacement, threw the ball 55 percent of the time in his five years at New Orleans, and his teams averaged exactly 100 more passes than rushes each year. Kiffin's replacement, Tom Cable, was the offensive line coach for the Raiders and has had no head coaching experience in the NFL. (He was, however the offensive line coach for the 2006 Atlanta Falcons and the 2007 Oakland Raiders; those two teams passed the ball 45 percent of the time. The Falcons rushed for 300 more yards than they threw, and the Raiders gained over 2,000 rushing yards.) But that wasn't enough for me. I decided to look at the 11 teams who switched head coaches in the middle of the year, and compare the differences of their stats before and after the change. All stats are per game. Here are the results:

Effects of In-Season Coaching Changes

	PassAtt.	RushAtt.	PassYd	RushYd	PtsFor	PtsAgst.
Before	34	25	217	99	17	23
After	31	27	188	109	17	24
Difference	-3	+2	-29	+10	0	+1

A few things to take from the table:

• The wins and losses (prorated to 16 games) before and after the change were nearly identical, with just one-hundredth separating the two results, so I left them off the table.
• You can see that the passing statistics went down and the rushing statistics went up after the mid-season change. I am assuming that the original coach was fired because he was passing too often and not playing grind-it-out football, then the subsequent head coach took the words of the owner/team president/general manager and ran the ball more often.
• Going with the above note: The Rams have thrown the ball 135 times (attempts plus sacks) and rushed 84 times, which is a pass 61 percent of the time; the NFL league average this year is 55.5 percent. As mentioned at the start of the article, Jim Haslett's teams have passed the ball that same percent; look for the Rams to start running more (good news for Steven Jackson owners) and passing less (bad news for Marc Bulger owners, but I would still pick him up if he were on the waiver wire).
• The Raiders have passed only 46 percent of the time. Tom Cable's two prior teams passed the ball 45 percent of the time; look for the Raiders to stay where they are in terms of pass-to-run ratio, even if they are below the league average.

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Straight Outta the Man Cave: Week Five Man Crushes

Is there a better activity in the world than chilling down in the man cave discussing football and girls? Red blooded American males say it in unison, "No." Of course not. This is why every Thursday FFWWH will let you all in on our own couch talk about football. And girls. And football playing girls. The down side? Football playing girls don't matter in the type of fantasy football that this site is specifically about. So uhh, we kind of had to improvise and work with what we have. So, umm, this feature will be about our mancrushes. (Ya, ya, cue the "figures, he's from California" jokes, blah, blah.) Moving on. Here's each of our respective man crushes for week 5. A-Koz The Cowboys know they screwed up. I know they screwed up. You know they screwed up. Even Tony Kornheiser knows they screwed up. The Cowboys didn't get Marion Barber involved enough in their gameplan last week. Not even close to it. Only eight carries—that shouldn't happen. I don't care what T.O. says; Barber should be the focal point of the offense this week. And against a poor Bengals rush defense that is allowing 164 yards on the ground per game, he should have a field day. Stat Boy The Detroit Lions have given up an average of 208 rushing yards per game in its three games. Here’s a comparison of how bad that is: Its opponents—the Falcons, Packers, and 49ers—have only averaged 106 yards per game in the other nine games total they have played, which is almost half of what they averaged against the Lions Its opponent this week, the Chicago Bears, have average 134 yards per game on the ground this year. Double that, and you get 268 yards. My mancrush of the week, Matt Forte, has had 65 percent of Chicago’s rushing yards. Take 65 percent of 268, and you get 175 yards this week. Then add in a touchdown—Detroit has given up five rushing touchdowns in three games. That’s fantasy goodness. Gage Arnold Phillip Rivers versus the Miami secondary: Haha, that just smells like fantasy domination. Rivers has really taken his game to the next level and faces a depleted Miami secondary this week. No question, I see Rivers being the #1 QB this week and easily tossing a few scores to Chris Chambers and Antonio Gates and racking up 300 yards. If you can, get Rivers now and reap the benefits for the rest of the season. His price tag may already be too high at the moment, so don't overpay unless you have to. Tosten Burks Drew Bress takes the snap, drops back, looks around, scans the field and sees... Marques Colston in street clothes wearing a cast on his hand... David Patten nursing his groin on the trainer's table... Robert Meachem in all his first-round bust glory, being cloaked by a cornerback... What does he do? What can he do? Throw it to Reggie Bush. It will happen early and often, and even with Deuce back getting a significant chunk of the carries, Bush will still have enough touches both in the rushing and the passing game to put up studly numbers. Undoubtedly start him.

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