Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet.
This week he sees which players produce the most with the least opportunities.
Here's what I don't get: people are saying that Tim Tebow shouldn't even be a finalist for the Heisman trophy because he has less than 2,600 passing yards, which is half of what Graham Harrell had.
Okay, except one thing: Tebow attempted exactly 300 less passes than did Harrell.
Every Texas Tech quarterback since 2002 has had monster passing stats. That's due to Tech's offensive system and the fact that they throw the ball 75 percent of the time. Prorate Tebow's stats to the 568 attempts that Harrell had, and suddenly Tebow is leading Harrell by 600 in passing yards.
It's not about their raw stats, but how they performed with the opportunities they were granted.
Through Week 10, Pierre Thomas had on the year 41.2 fantasy points on 48 touches. Per 20 touches, that's 17.2 fantasy points. Then New Orleans started giving him the rock—and from Week 11 on, he produced 22 fantasy points per 20 touches.
No one would have predicted his breakout performance, because, after all, he was averaging 4.6 fantasy points per game.
It's not about their raw stats, but how they performed with the opportunities they were granted.
With the string of injuries to star performers this week, I decided to revisit my early-season article on fantasy points per touch. Which backups that will get the load of carries this week warrant a starting spot on your fantasy roster?
I looked at the top-25 quarterbacks, top-30 running backs, and top-40 wide receivers on the year, plus the backups that will be starting or will receive an increase in playing time this week. I ended up adding three quarterbacks and five running backs and wideouts.
Note: Touches were defined as attempts plus carries for QBs, attempts plus receptions for running backs, and receptions for wide receivers. Then I multiplied the fantasy points per touch number by an average amount of touches a starter would see—30 attempts/carries for a QB; 20 rushes/catches for RBs; and six catches for wide receivers.
Players who should see an increase of playing time have their names in bold.
| Quarterbacks |
| Name | Fan.Pts | Pts per 30 |
| Philip Rivers | 217.0 | 16.2 |
| Shaun Hill | 96.6 | 15.2 |
| Tony Romo | 178.9 | 15.0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 236.9 | 14.7 |
| Matt Schaub | 134.4 | 13.9 |
| Drew Brees | 240.1 | 13.8 |
| Seneca Wallace | 71.6 | 13.7 |
| Kurt Warner | 236.6 | 13.5 |
| Eli Manning | 181.0 | 13.0 |
| Matt Ryan | 174.0 | 12.8 |
| Jay Cutler | 226.8 | 12.7 |
| Tyler Thigpen | 151.5 | 12.7 |
| Donovan McNabb | 204.7 | 12.2 |
| Peyton Manning | 200.7 | 12.2 |
| Chad Pennington | 169.9 | 12.2 |
| Jake Delhomme | 148.1 | 12.1 |
| Trent Edwards | 141.8 | 12.0 |
| Kyle Orton | 151.0 | 12.0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 132.5 | 11.9 |
| Joe Flacco | 157.6 | 11.8 |
| Brett Favre | 171.4 | 11.7 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 155.7 | 11.6 |
| J.P. Losman | 28.7 | 11.5 |
| Matt Cassel | 191.6 | 11.3 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 29.3 | 10.7 |
| Jason Campbell | 160.1 | 10.6 |
| Sage Rosenfels | 64.9 | 10.5 |
| David Garrard | 171.2 | 10.3 |
- You can read how much I love Shaun Hill in this week's Mancrushes (whenever they get posted).
- I also like Seneca Wallace this week. He's averaged 16.3 fantasy points in his last four starts, and the St. Louis Rams are in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.
- If you were thinking of playing J.P. Losman or Tavaris Jackson because the Jets and Cardinals are in the bottom five against QBs in fantasy points allowed ... don't. You deserve to lose if you do.
| Running Backs |
| Name | Fan. Pts | Pts Per 20 |
| Pierre Thomas | 120.0 | 20.9 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 216.2 | 18.6 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 178.9 | 18.6 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 175.3 | 17.5 |
| Kevin Faulk | 108.6 | 17.5 |
| LenDale White | 153.0 | 17.5 |
| Brian Westbrook | 193.3 | 16.5 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 119.7 | 16.3 |
| Thomas Jones | 215.7 | 15.8 |
| Sammy Morris | 91.3 | 15.5 |
| Reggie Bush | 115.8 | 15.4 |
| Tim Hightower | 115.9 | 15.4 |
| Steve Slaton | 185.4 | 15.3 |
| Ronnie Brown | 156.9 | 15.1 |
| Chris Johnson | 189.1 | 14.5 |
| Mewelde Moore | 117.1 | 14.4 |
| Michael Turner | 212.0 | 13.9 |
| Le'Ron McClain | 121.0 | 13.5 |
| Frank Gore | 182.5 | 13.5 |
| Derrick Ward | 116.2 | 13.3 |
| Adrian Peterson | 206.2 | 13.2 |
| Marion Barber | 177.6 | 13.1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 99.5 | 13.0 |
| Matt Forte | 207.6 | 12.9 |
| Clinton Portis | 188.1 | 12.9 |
| Steven Jackson | 126.1 | 12.7 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 165.3 | 12.6 |
| Kevin Smith | 123.2 | 12.5 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 173.1 | 12.1 |
| Ladell Betts | 38.0 | 11.5 |
| Warrick Dunn | 106.6 | 11.3 |
| Willis McGahee | 93.3 | 11.0 |
| Willie Parker | 84.1 | 10.9 |
| Ryan Grant | 126.1 | 9.9 |
| Jamal Lewis | 120.4 | 9.8 |
- Derrick Ward is in the middle of the pack in this list. But if you remember how high he was in last week's consistency article, he's a must-start in all formats. He's going to get you 12 fantasy points this week, no doubt about it.
- Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are both low on this list. That's interesting, because most think that whoever gets the load of the carries in Baltimore performs outstandingly.
- Dominic Rhodes is a top-12 running back this week. Why? He's averaging 17.9 fantasy points in his last four games where he had over 20 touches, and the top rusher on teams facing the Lions has put up 18.9 fantasy points per game.
- Clinton Portis might not get all the carries in Washington, but that shouldn't make Ladell Betts be your flex play this week. His yards per carry on the year is only 3.3.
| Wide Receivers |
| Name | Fan. Pts | Pts per 6 |
| Devery Henderson | 84.8 | 18.2 |
| Justin Gage | 77.1 | 17.8 |
| Calvin Johnson | 159.5 | 17.1 |
| Vincent Jackson | 121.1 | 16.5 |
| Bernard Berrian | 112.4 | 16.4 |
| Terrell Owens | 138.8 | 15.1 |
| Kevin Walter | 133.1 | 14.5 |
| Isaac Bruce | 105.3 | 14.4 |
| Greg Jennings | 155.1 | 14.1 |
| Steve Smith | 137.1 | 13.5 |
| Randy Moss | 132.1 | 13.0 |
| Deion Branch | 36.0 | 12.7 |
| Lee Evans | 109.3 | 12.6 |
| Roddy White | 160.9 | 12.4 |
| Marques Colston | 51.4 | 12.3 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 169.1 | 12.2 |
| Braylon Edwards | 91.5 | 12.2 |
| Lance Moore | 125.4 | 12.1 |
| Anquan Boldin | 166.4 | 12.0 |
| Michael Jenkins | 76.9 | 11.8 |
| Santonio Holmes | 85.6 | 11.7 |
| Santana Moss | 117.6 | 11.6 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 93.4 | 11.2 |
| Antonio Bryant | 123.7 | 11.1 |
| Hines Ward | 112.1 | 11.0 |
| Reggie Wayne | 121.8 | 10.9 |
| Amani Toomer | 74.5 | 10.9 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 120.7 | 10.8 |
| Donald Driver | 101.3 | 10.7 |
| Roy Williams | 52.9 | 10.6 |
| Laveranues Coles | 98.0 | 10.5 |
| Marvin Harrison | 88.3 | 10.4 |
| Derrick Mason | 111.1 | 10.3 |
| DeSean Jackson | 89.5 | 10.1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 139.3 | 10.1 |
| Anthony Gonzalez | 84.8 | 10.0 |
| Andre Johnson | 150.1 | 9.8 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 94.2 | 9.6 |
| Eddie Royal | 109.9 | 9.6 |
| Chad Johnson | 74.7 | 9.0 |
| Steve Breaston | 98.0 | 8.8 |
| Matt Jones | 87.0 | 8.2 |
| Davone Bess | 49.3 | 7.6 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 112.5 | 7.6 |
| Wes Welker | 106.2 | 6.6 |
- I don't like using fantasy points per touch on wide receivers. What will result is that the guys who seem to get a 50-yard catch every other week will rise to the top, and the possession receivers such as Wes Welker will sink to the bottom.
- Nonetheless, it's still a fine measuring tool of production. Justin Gage is averaging 10.6 fantasy points in his past five games, including 7.7 on the year. However, he's had four or less fantasy points in five of his 10 games played. Start him if you need a high risk/high reward guy.
- Amani Toomer hasn't been all that great on the year, but in the past three games when Plaxico had no catches or was injured, Toomer's put up 8.7 fantasy points per game. He's a nice flex play this week.
- I also bolded Davone Bess. Though he's second-to-last, he's caught 20 balls for 245 yards in his last three. He won't get you a touchdown, but if you need 70-80 yards, he's your guy.
I think Tosten and Alex have been having secret meetings, too. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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