Da Games: Late Sundayers

In our attempt to provide every possible way for you to have more reason to kick yourself after a well researched fantasy loss, we antagonizingly analyze each and every weekend matchup.

Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Jake Delhomme, Matt Moore RB— DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart WR— Steve Smith, Muhsin Muhammad, DJ Hackett TE— Dante Rosario, Jeff King Key Stat There is no stat to show how terrible the Raiders are. Our Take Tosten Burks— Yes that's Carolina's depth chart. I don't feel the need to add anything. But if you need me to verbalize this, bench every single Oakland Raider. Zach Fein— If you start any Raider this week, you deserve to lose.

Alex Kozora— This one is simple. Start Delhomme, Steve Smith, and DeAngelo Williams with confidence. Muhsin Muhammad is a good flex play. Jonathan Stewart seems unlikely to play so I'd look for other options if you're thinking about starting him. Bench anyone in black and silver.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning RB— Mewelde Moore, Joseph Addai WR— Reggie Wayne, Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward TE— Dallas Clark, Heath Miller Key Stat(s) 1— Indianapolis' rank against opposing QBs in terms of fantasy points allowed. 3— Pittsburgh's rank in that same stat. Our Take Tosten Burks— Indy is slumping and Roth is hurting. As ridiculous as this sounds, Mewelde Moore may be the most productive player fantasy wise in this game. Zach Fein— I don't want to say it, but Peyton Manning is a bench this week. Moore averaged 19.5 fantasy points as a starter, and Indy is sixth-worst against opposing RBs; he's a top-12 back this week. Alex Kozora— Don't expect much from Addai, as I said in my Name Calling article. Mewelde Moore is a solid option, albeit not a great one, especially with Willie Parker declared out. If Big Ben plays, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes will get big boosts.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers

Fantasy Impact Players QB— Philip Rivers, Tyler Thigpen RB— Ladainian Tomlinson, Jamaal Charles, Darren Sproles WR— Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Chris Chambers TE— Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates Key Stat 1— Only one team has given up more fantasy points to opposing QBs than the Chargers. Our Take Tosten Burks— Some updates: Larry Johnson will be sitting this one out. Chambers and Cromartie are back. Both of these defenses look pathetic. Every single guy listed above is a justifiable fantasy start in normal sized leagues. Zach Fein— I know it sounds crazy, but Tyler Thigpen is a top-12 QB this week (see Key Stat). Everyone in the "Fantasy Impact Players" section is a start besides Darren Sproles. Alex Kozora— Similar to the Panthers/Raiders review, start all Chargers. Tyler Thigpen has played pretty well the past two games, but I'm not sold on him yet. I am sold on Tony Gonzalez, however, as San Diego has had a terrible time containing tight ends.

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Stat Boy Saturday: Looking at Playoff Schedules—Could It Be Bad?

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he gets the dirt on fantasy playoff schedules. So your league's trading deadline is coming up soon. If you're near the top of the standings, it would make sense to trade for a high upside player with an easy schedule in the fantasy football playoffs. Owners scrambling to make the playoffs would want to trade an injured player for one that would help them now. The Football Outsiders guys conveniently looked into this on Thursday, by spotting players with the easiest playoff schedules based on their now-to-the-end-of-season projections. Seems nice enough, right? That depends on if a team's early-season performance actual correlates with their fantasy playoff performance. It would make sense that if a team is bad from Weeks 1 through 12, they must be bad from Weeks 13 through 17, and vice versa for good teams. In the words of Lee Corso, not so fast, my friend. Using all teams since 2002, I checked the correlation of their regular season performance and their fantasy playoff performance. The results will shock you.

Correlation of Weeks 1-12 and 13-17

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.215	0.046
PassYd_all	0.129	0.017
RushYd_all	0.381	0.145
Takeaways	0.111	0.012

Let me help you understand the numbers. The higher the r and r-squared (r2) are, the more related the stat is from the regular season to the playoffs. The r-squared effectively says how many of the teams' playoff performance were predicted based on their regular season performance. An r-squared of .7 or higher is considered good, anything under .5 is considered to be a bad set of data, and anything under .2 is considered to have no correlation whatsoever. In other words, only 4.6 percent of all 192 teams in the sample had a points allowed per game in the fantasy playoffs that could be predicted by their regular season points allowed per game. The numbers show that a team's points allowed, passing yards allowed, and turnovers are essentially a tossup in the fantasy playoffs. Rushing yards allowed does much better than those three, but it still is basically a coin flip as to whether a team's regular season play will predict their playoff performance. The next three tables show the correlations of teams ranked in the top 60 of all 192 teams in the sample (represents the top 10 in any given year), teams ranked in the bottom 60 (bottom 10), and all teams in the middle (teams ranked from 11-21) in each stat based on regular season play. I excluded takeaways because there were many ties and the sample size was too small (there's only 15 or so by a team in a year, so of course it would have a low correlation).

Top 10 Teams

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.231	0.053
PassYd_all	0.088	0.008
RushYd_all	0.133	0.018

Teams ranked 11-21

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.257	0.066
PassYd_all	0.032	0.001
RushYd_all	0.027	0.001

Bottom 10 Teams

Stat	r	r2
Pts_all	0.107	0.012
PassYd_all	-0.048	0.002
RushYd_all	0.019	0.000

Again, no correlation whatsoever. In fact, you get better r's and r's-squared if you use every team than by splitting them up into tiers. By the way, there's a -0.048 r for passing yards allowed by the bottom 10 teams. That means as passing yards allowed in the regular season go up, it goes down in the playoffs. I find that hilarious, even if it's just -0.048. The main point of all of this is don't make trades or assess players based on their fantasy playoff schedule. The stats show that you can't predict at all a team's defensive play based on their early-season performance. Sorry, Trent Edwards, Marshawn Lynch, and Lee Evans owners. It doesn't even have to be a question. Just send us an e-mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Straight Outta Mancavedom: Week 10 Mancrushes

Is there a better activity in the world than chilling down in the man cave discussing football and girls? Red-blooded American males say it in unison, "No." Of course not. This is why every Thursday (or in this week's case, late Saturday) FFWWH will let you all in on our own couch talk about football. And girls. And football playing girls. But mostly, football playing guys. So here's our week ten bromances. Zach Fein The Oakland Raiders are terrible. They've given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, including an average of 17.9 in the last six weeks to the top scorer on opponents' teams. Those top rushers gained an average of 115 total yards (96 on the ground) and a touchdown DeAngelo Williams has had 16.9 fantasy points per game in the last four weeks (that number rises to 21.4 is you take out his stinker against Tampa Bay), and at least 17 touches in four of the past five weeks. You can expect Williams to be a top-12 back this week as he puts up 100 yards and a score against the disordered Raiders. Alex Kozora The Raiders are a mess.

And the Panthers will greatly benefit from that this weekend. Flying under the radar is Muhsin Muhammad. Steve Smith should be blanked all day by Nmandi Asomugha, and with the recent release of DeAngelo Hall, who was oh so wrong on this prediction , Moose gets to face special teamer Chris Johnson.

The Raiders have a below average pass defense, 20th in the league. Jake Delhomme has thrown for two touchdown passes in four of the last five games while Muhammad hasn't had a game where he's caught less than three passes this season. And against Oakland, three catches would be all he needs.

Tosten Burks So everybody's picking on the Raiders. Well I got news for ya'll, a great start for you is... Man. I can't do it. I want to find a Raider who could have any fantasy value but it's impossible. Geezus they're bad. But you know who's good? (Ahhhh look at that segway.) Tyler Thigpen. Don't check my pulse, he's dropped 480 yards since he got the starting job two weeks ago and now he faces the worst pass defense in football. Cromartie will be back, but the San Diego Chargers still have no clue how to defend tight ends. Gonzo and Thigpen will roll... To a loss. A fantasy field day NFL loss.
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Jackson Out Another Week, Torain On IR, Both Also Have Stolen Your Identity and Keyed Your Car

Why is it that Sheriff Goodell fines every defensive player who touches a quarterback to protect them from injury, when running backs and wide receivers are dropping like it's hot? Steven Jackson's quad injury is keeping him out for another game and his seemingly bright, no, blinding season outlook after four straight weeks of 100 yards from Weeks Three to Seven continues to be set back. Haslett has publicly ruled him out for the Rams' matchup at the New York Jets. Ryan Torain also adds himself to a list of Denver running backs out for the season, tearing his ACL on Thursday, forcing him to warm benches and trainer's tables, with Michael Pittman and Andre Hall for the next few months. Continuing down the injury index, Selvin Young, the last remaining halfback in I'm pretty sure all of Colorado to not be out for the rest of 2008, is doubtful to suit up in Atlanta next weekend with a groin injury. Geezus.
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Week 10 Name Calling

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. For all of those in a politician fantasy league (no, I'm not talking about Elliot Spitzer), feel free to insert Barack Obama into your starting lineup. While you're at it, sit John McCain. For those of you playing fantasy football, what guys should you turn to and which should you shy away from? Who You Gonna Call DeAngelo Williams/RB Carolina: We all know that the Raiders' pass defense took a hit with the release of another DeAngelo—DeAngelo Hall. But lest we forgot how terrible their run defense is, ranked 30th in the league. Jonathan Stewart appears doubtful to play this week because of a heel injury. He hasn't practiced all week. Assuming he doesn't play, Williams should shoulder the entire load this Sunday. Looking at how inept the Raiders' offense is, I think it's safe to say that the Panthers will have the ball early and often. Marc Bulger/QB St. Louis: The loss of Steven Jackson for this week has greatly hurt the Rams' chances of winning this week, but for fantasy owners of Bulger, it can be viewed as a positive. Kenneth Darby and Samkon Gado are expected to be the main backs for St. Louis—enough said. The Rams will likely turn to their passing game a lot more because of that, and I don't blame them. Chad Pennington/QB Miami: Some say that the Dolphins, not the Packers or Jets, won the Brett Farve saga ... er ... trade because of the acquisition of Chad Pennington, following his release from the Jets. Some might be right. Pennington has given Miami that stability they needed. That's something they didn't have last year. Pennington and the Dolphins get to enjoy the Miami weather as Seattle comes to down. The Seahawks have really struggled this season, allowing over 258 yards per game and tied next to last in INT's with three. On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always call, using discretion of course. I don't want idiots saying I told them to start some dude over LDT): RBs against Detroit and Kansas City, WRs against Miami and Seattle, QBs against Detroit and San Diego. Who You Not Gonna Call Ryan Grant/RB Green Bay: It's not that hard to see that Grant has struggled mightily this year. He's started to pick it up the past few games, but that was against the likes of teams such as Indy, Atlanta, and Seattle. He gets to face the Vikings' stout run defense this week, and you know Kevin and Pat Williams are licking their chops. Literally, you think those guys got to be that size by going on a diet? Heck no, and the Packers running game will feel their wrath this weekend. Joseph Addai/RB Indy: You know I'm grinning writing this one. [Ed's note: Alex hated Addai in the preseason.] And considering I'm a Steelers fan, I'm grinning even more. A Steelers' defense that shut down both Brandon Jacobs and Clinton Portis should have no trouble shutting down Addai. Matt Forte/RB Chicago: Lots of bad running back starts this week, eh? Forte is another guy to stay away from. Despite Kyle Orton's optimism, he's unlikely to play this week. That means Rex "He's our quarterback" Grossman would start. Albert Haynesworth and the rest of the Titans defensive line should manhandle the line of scrimmage. I don't like anyone on the Bears' offense this week, and you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who did. Not On Speed Dial (Names you should always, always caller ID check and ignore, once again using discretion of course. I don't want idiots syaing I told them to bench Drew Brees): RBs against the Jets, Tyler Thigpen (not anymore...), Oakland WRs, QBs against Indianapolis
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News From Ball Street

News From Ball Street is like news from Wall Street. It rhymes, see what we did there? Here we watch the stocks (ehh, ehh?) of players who are rising and falling, and decide whether you should target these shooting and sinking stars. Clever, I know. Al Davis has already changed his mind on certain players that he just signed a few months ago. He released $70 million man DeAngelo Hall and supposedly has a whole list of other guys who are heading in that same direction. The Bears, Browns, Texans, and Lions will all have new starting quarterbacks next week. Phil Fullmer is done in Tennessee and John Gruden could be pulling up to take his place. Obama was right, change has come to America. And there is no place where that is more relevant than in the fantasyosphere. Values are constantly rising and falling. Let's see where they're at this week. Stock Up Greg Camarillo/WR Miami—He's a solid option, but his 11-catch, 111-yard performance against the terrible Denver secondary is misleading. He's normally good for six or seven grabs and 60 or 70 yards, so this is the time to see what you can get for him. Course of Action: Sell Tim Hightower/RB Arizona—The writing was on the wall all season that Hightower would eventually phase Edgerrin James out and take over as Arizona's starting running back. The moment finally came last weekend at St. Louis and Hightower came through big, putting up 100 yards. He's looked good all year but I can't fully trust him as a feature back when his only test is against the Rams. However, he draws two mediocre defenses in the next few games in San Fran and Seattle, so I would wait two weeks before selling him high, before he faces the Giants, Eagles, and the Vikings in three out of his following four weeks. Course of Action: Hold Sage Rosenfels/QB Houston—Rosenfels came in for an injured Matt Schaub on Sunday and looked solid. He tends to do that every time he fills in for the oft-hurt Schaub. Seriously, their stats are indistinguishable, as both succeed in the powerful Texans offense. Ride him high for the next four weeks if you managed to claim him off waivers, or if you missed out, snag him on the cheap. The two-touchdown games aren't going anywhere. Course of Action: Buy Stock Down Kellen Winslow/TE Cleveland—Easiest buy low of the week. He hasn't had a touchdown since the first week of the year, but with young Brady Quinn replacing Derek Anderson, his touches and production should increase as he plays the role of a learning, first-time starter's safety outlet. Course of Action: Buy Larry Johnson/RB Kansas City—Aside from arrests, public tension with his team, and suspensions, LJ has fallen in another aspect. He's sucked at football. With rookie Jamaal Charles looking as good as any Chief has all year, Johnson has nowhere to go but down. Find a Kansas City fan and trash this guy. Course of Action: Sell Reggie Wayne/WR Indianapolis—It's hard for me to believe that he'll continue to average 39 receiving yards from here on out, as he has the last three weeks. Find a worrisome Wayne owner and steal him. He'll put out of the slump. Hopefully. Course of Action: Buy We voted. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Weekend Recap: Week 9

They say ignorance is bliss. Bologna. At least when it comes to fantasy football, I prefer the saying, "Knowledge is power." Gathering as much information as you can will give you and your team(s) the best chance to win each week. Injuries, new starters (there will be a ton of them for Week 10), and past performances are all included under the knowledge category. Usually, that'll translate into power, or in the case of fantasy football, wins and championships. - Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, and Dan Orlovsky are out. Sage Rosenfels, Rex Grossman (*gasp*), and Drew Stanton/Daunte Culpepper are in. I'd only suggest picking up Rosenfels. - Trey Wingo reports that Derek Anderson has been benched not because of injuries like Schaub and company, but because of poor play. Brady Quinn will obviously start and is worth a look in most leagues. - Antonio Bryant hasn't missed a beat with Jeff Garcia under center and the return of Joey Galloway. Bryant has had at least six receptions (sans one game) and two 100-yard games since Garcia returned to the starting lineup, and 14 receptions, 160 yards, and one score since Galloway came back from injury. - Tim Hightower played and played well. Edge didn't get a single down. Expect a similar trend in the upcoming weeks. - The Cowboys really need Tony Romo back. - It's almost hard to laugh at the Raiders offense, who didn't have any positive yards or first downs in the entire first half. I'm glad not many people start Raiders' players. - Speaking of struggling, Fred Taylor falls into that category. He hasn't had a game over 25 yards rushing since Week 3! We don't need podcasts. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.
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