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Thursday, January 8
Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Gage Arnold
I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles.
Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me.
Now, with less Tosten and Zach.
Your name: Gage Arnold
But you wish to be referred to as: Giovanni
You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Gap Clothing
But we shouldn't hold it against you because: It's some pretty nice stuff.
Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: For Lane Kiffin to make Tennessee a powerhouse in the SEC again
Why will this happen/not happen? It's Tennessee football...
Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Pierre Thomas
How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? 3rd-4th round-ish
Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Marion Barber
Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Anquan Boldin, I don't see a repeat from good ol' Kurt
Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? Tim Tebow
Who will be...
... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson
... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Maurice Jones-Drew
... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Sam Bradford
... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Tim Tebow or Shonn Greene
Mad Gabs
1. In 2009, Tim Tebow will throw for at least 2,000 yards in his rookie season.
2. There is no way that the Detroit Lions will not win one game.
3. The Houston Texans will be this year's Atlanta Falcons.
4. Brett Favre will retire, then move to Alabama, decide he doesn't belong, go back to school at Southern Miss and become the Head Football coach, only to resign after the first game and start the next 15 games of the season for the Minnesota Vikings.
5. If Michael Turner gets another 300-carry season then I don't like his fantasy outlook for the future.
6. There will be 6 players who are tight ends and will get drafted before Owen Daniels in fantasy drafts.
7. ... but only 1 player(s) who scores more points among tight ends.
8. Matthew Berry will beg to be let on the FFWWH staff only to be denied and laughed at. Poor Matt Berry.
9. This is the year that Kobe Bryant finally wins a championship without Shaq.
10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Calvin Johnson's domination of mankind.
The Name Game
Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning
Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Burner
Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Calvin
Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston
Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs
DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? DeAngelo
Playing with Numbers
Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 2,200; 20
Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 5,156; 37
Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,356; 32
Kurt Warner's starts: 10
Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,004; 6; 33
Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 1,119; 3
Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: 7... teen
Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace
What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Is Tim Tebow in fact Jesus?
And the answer is? He may be as close as you can possibly get.
What question are you glad you weren't asked? Why is Tosten Burks such a funny man?
Sucker! Now you have to answer. Why, he just wakes up and is like that, must be a gift from God. Thank you Jesus for bestowing Tosten upon us.
Keep going...
Keep going...
Wednesday, January 7
Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Zach Fein
I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles.
Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me.
Now, with less Tosten.
Your name: Zach Fein
But you wish to be referred to as: Zach
You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Using stats to back your case
But we shouldn't hold it against you because: Yeah, fan bias is a lot better.
Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That my NFL postseason predictions for the 2009 season are exactly correct.
Why will this happen/not happen? I picked a Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl this year.
Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Matt Hasselbeck
How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? Tenth round or so, as the No. 2 on a rotating-starting-QB team.
Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Matt Hasselbeck
Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Chris Johnson
Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? It won't be one of the two below.
But who does everyone think it'll be? Beanie Wells/Knowshon Moreno
Who will be...
... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson
... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Clinton Portis
... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Matthew Stafford, though it should be Andre Smith
... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Beanie Wells/Knowshon Moreno (I just had this question...)
Mad Gabs
1. In 2009, Tony Romo will be a top-two quarterback for 12 weeks, until December rolls around.
2. There is no way that I will recommend a guy with a so-called "easy"fantasy playoff schedule.
3. Le'Ron McLain will be this year's Ryan Grant.
4. Brett Favre will take the same amount of time it took last year to reach a decision and ultimately retire.
5. If you draft Ben Roethlisberger as your No. 1 QB, then good luck this year.
6. There will be 22 players who are QBs that will be drafted in standard leagues.
7. ... but only 5 players who are among those 22 will finish behind Big Ben, making him the No. 17 QB in 2009.
8. Matthew Berry will never be mentioned on FFWWH with the word "funny" in the same sentence... unless that sentence is, "Matthew Berry is not funny."
9. This is the year that Chris Mortensen finally beats out Adam Schefter or Jay Glazer to a breaking news story that turns out to be correct.
10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Joe Flacco's playoff run to the Super Bowl.
The Name Game
Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Peyton.
Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Turner
Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Moss, I guess, but these guy will be drafted too early anyway
Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston. Is this even a real question?
Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs
DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis
Playing with Numbers
Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,525; 9 (that's total yards and total TDs)
Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,920; 32
Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,150; 31 (he misses the first two or three games)
Kurt Warner's starts: 15 3/4
Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 950; 6; 8
Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 860; 7
Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: 12. With the actual name "Ocho Cinco" on his jersey, his R.S. rate will ascend.
Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace
What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Who's your mancrush of 2009 going to be?
And the answer is? Brandon Jacobs
What question are you glad you weren't asked? Do you want to answer the second-to-last question on this survey?
Sucker! Now you have to answer. Nope.
Keep going...
Keep going...
Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Tosten Burks
I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles.
Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me.
Your name: Tosten Burks
But you wish to be referred to as: Emmanuel
You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: McDonald's french fries
But we shouldn't hold it against you because: If you do I will strike you with lightning.
Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That Brady Hoke will turn San Diego State into an NFL team.
Why will this happen/not happen? It's San Diego State.
Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Derrick Ward
How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? Fourth or fifth round-ish
Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Philip Rivers. I'm a Chargers fan. He'll probably turn hobo on me and suck in fantasy and suck in real life and tank every football related squad that is associated with my life.
Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Thomas Jones
Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? Michael Crabtree
But who does everyone think it'll be? I have no idea.
Who will be...
... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson
... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Steve Slaton
... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Sam Bradford
... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Beanie Wells
Mad Gabs
1. In 2009, stock will go for negative dollars.
2. There is no way that I will not win the lottery.
3. FFWWH will be this year's Google.
4. Brett Favre will move to Utah and marry the 20,984 reporters that make up the main stream media.
5. If you got money and you know it, then take it out your pocket and show it and throw it.
6. There will be 13 players who get drafted before Steve Slaton in fantasy drafts.
7. ... but only 3 players who score more points at the running back position.
8. Matthew Berry will mention this site on his podcast and in an article, make a joke about its title, and give FFWWH 13,847,398,742 page views. And buy a wig.
9. This is the year that Michael Scott finally finds true love.
10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Skip Bayless's firing.
The Name Game
Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning
Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Ehh, myeh, fee, fii, fo, ahh, umm, eeeh... Turner. I apologize LT. It's close man. If Darren Sproles signs elsewhere, you got it in the bag.
Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Johnson
Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston
Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs
DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis
Playing with Numbers
Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,769; 19
Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,893; 31
Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 120; 0 (He pulls a Merriman, comes in Week One to prove he's tough, goes on IR to continue to recover from his injury)
Kurt Warner's starts: 15
Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,138; 7; 12,908
Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 1241; 8 (all in one game)
Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: ∞
Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace
What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Why does the title of this post sound like a cologne? "Predictions. By Tosten Burks."
And the answer is? I have not a clue in my soul.
What question are you glad you weren't asked? I heard there's some big news coming about this site. What is it?
Sucker! Now you have to answer. Oh, you trickster. You're gonna have to wait on that one.
Keep going...
Keep going...
Tuesday, January 6
Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Running Back Top 10 Rankings
Yep, it's been confirmed. I have no life.
Here's some more rankings. In January.
Early Top 10 Rankings for 2009: Running Backs
Keep going...
As Alex likes to say, these are extremely preliminary, so don't hold me to them. Unless they turn out to be accurate. If they're great, then by all means hold me to them.
Keep going...
Sunday, January 4
Matt Cassel to be Franchised; What About Tom Brady?
It's looking more and more likely that the New England Patriots will put the franchise tag on first-year starter Matt Cassel.
The news was first reported by Mike Lombardi, then confirmed by Chris Mortensen.
Placing the franchise tag would cost the Patriots $14.835 million, the average salary of the five-highest quarterbacks in the league from the prior season. The Patriots would be paying more than $29 million for two quarterbacks next year; injured backup Tom Brady has a salary of $14.6 million in 2009.
With Matt Cassel franchised, the Patriots would have two options: trade him if Brady's knee heals, or keep Cassel should Brady's rehab from injury not go as planned.
Teams that could become major factors in the Cassel sweepstakes include two NFC North teams, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions.
The Lions have already announced their intention to take a quarterback at No. 1 in the draft. Minnesota was rumored to be interested in Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb last offseason, and their poor and inconsistent quarterback play for the Vikings this year should not change that stance.
In the case that Brady's knee is not fully recovered by Week One, fantasy owners would be best to avoid either New England quarterback for the time being. Both would be top-10 quarterbacks with no competition (with the edge going to Brady), but Brady would likely take over the job midway through the year if he were to recover.
Keep going...
Keep going...
Thursday, January 1
Hey Rookie, Welcome to the NFL: Evaluating the Performance of Several Rookie RBs
Not too often do the Dennis Quaids of the world prove to be anything more than your first pick's handcuff.
2008 was the year of the rookie running back. Over 10 rookies either started, filled in for their injured predecessor, or split the load of the carries and became fantasy relevant in a year in which many first- and second-round fantasy picks turned out to be busts.
In what was called one of the greatest running back drafts ever—even proclaimed so before the draft occurred—three of the five first-round backs missed a total of 22 games this year—yet four other backs chosen in the first three rounds had over 1,000 total yards (three of which rushed for 1,200 yards), and another had 900 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Tim Hightower, Tashard Choice, and Ryan Torain—the guy that sat on your bench all year as you hoped and prayed that he would recover and prosper in Denver's Russian-roulette running back slot, which came out to be true for one game until he tore his ACL and gave way for another rookie (Peyton Hillis) to succeed, I might add—all provided fantasy effectiveness for some time or another, in addition to the aforementioned group of 900- and 1,000-yard backs.
Recent years such as 2006 provided other great running back draft classes, but not nearly as much as 2008, which had, among many stats, three 1,200-yard rushers (since the 1981 draft class, only two had as many as two such rushers, in 1983 and 2000) and four backs with 10 total touchdowns (only three classes since 1981 had as many as three, and none of those came after 1985).
The breakout of these rookie running backs yields a good question: Will they—nay, any of them—keep this up for next year?
I went to a statistical approach to answer this question. I looked at every rookie RB since 1981 that had six touches per game and 60 attempts on the year to see how their next year's stats changed from their rookie season.
Since there were 249 players that had these requirements, I split them up into five groups based on their stats from their rookie year. (I had the top 50 leaders in attempts in group one, Nos. 51-100 for group two, and so on, and then did this for each stat that I was looking at.) I then found various data—the percent of the group that had their stat decline from their rookie year to the next, the average of the stat in the rookie year and the sophomore year, and the correlation for the stat from the rookie year to the next—to try and see how each group performs the next year.
(Methodological note: Not every group had 50 or 49 players; if there was a tie for the last spot in a group, I moved both players to the higher group. There were 51 players in the first group for total yards, for example, because two players tied for 50th place with 1,130 yards.)
Here are the results:
Range—The range of the stat in question for each group
Att_down?—The percent of players in a group that had their stat decline or stay the same the following year
Att-Yr1—The average number of each stat for each group in their rookie year
Att_Yr2—The average number of each stat for each group in their sophomore year
Correl—The correlation of the rookie year stats and the sophomore year stats. The closer to one, the more dependent the sophomore and rookie stats are with each other, or in order words, the easier to predict that stat in the sophomore year; a negative number means that as the stat increases in the first year, it decreases in the second year.
The better a rookie performs in his first year, he is more likely to decline the next year (a phenomenon called regression toward the mean). Generally, the lower the stat of a player in their rookie year, the tougher it is to get a true grasp of how they'll perform the next year.
I'll use these data to analyze the crop of 2008 rookie running backs and try and predict how they'll do in 2009. In order of how I'd rank them for 2009... Matt Forte Falls under: 1st group for attempts; 1st group for yards; 1st group for touchdowns; 1st group for fantasy points As the leading rusher and pass catcher for the Bears, Forte had almost 380 touches and more than 1,700 total yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. However, Forte gained only 3.91 yards per carry this year, which is certainly a problem for the Chicago workhorse. That said, he gained 4.19 yards per carry from Week Nine on—when first-round OT Chris Williams returned from injury—compared to his 3.42 average without Williams. Forte was incredibly consistent in 2008: He had only two games end in single-digit fantasy points, and he had a either 75 total yards or a touchdown in every game this year. His lowest amount of touches in a game was 16, twice. Forte fell under the first group for every statistic, and it seems unlikely that he'll follow up his rookie numbers with even better ones next year. Projected 2009 stats (see below): 281 attempts, 1,471 total yards, nine total touchdowns, and 203 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 3 - 6 RB; Mid-first rounder Steve Slaton Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Taking out his first career game and his four-carry game in Week 10 against the Ravens, Slaton averaged over 100 total yards and 15.6 fantasy points per game. He reached 100 yards in nine of those 14 games, and in the five without 100 yards he put up 12.5 fantasy points. Slaton was clearly helped by head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme—which Kubiak learned in his 11 years as Denver Broncos offensive coordinator—although that's not a bad thing. Slaton is in the perfect situation for him: an offense that is made for quick-footed and agile players (Slaton ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at the Combine). Slaton's 4.78 yards per carry show he can make the most of his opportunities, be it 20 carries a game or a timeshare with Ryan Moats (hey, stuff can happen). Slaton gained 100 total yards in six of his last seven games, and his success should carry over to next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 239 attempts, 1,423 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 189 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 11-15 RB; Early- to mid-second rounder Chris Johnson Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Whether it's his first or last carry, Johnson is always a threat to take it 50 yards to the house. But that's the thing—if he doesn't get a score, he doesn't perform at all. In the games in which he scored, Johnson averaged 102 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards, and on 21 touches, that's a 5.95 yards-per-touch average; in the games in which he did not score, he had 59 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards on 18 touches, a 3.89 yards-per-touch average. (Taking out the distances of his touchdown runs and catch, Johnson averaged 99 total yards on 22 touches in games in which he scored, a 4.95 yards-per-touch average.) Which is why I'm not a big fan of Johnson. Predicting touchdowns is hard as is, and even tougher is predicting the distances of his touchdowns—Johnson's touchdown lengths added a whole yard to his YPT average. Proj. 2009 stats: 224 attempts, 1,277 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 174 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 14-18 RB; Mid- to late-second rounder Kevin Smith Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 2nd group; 1st group After carrying the ball only 56 times in the first eight weeks, Smith ran the ball 61 times in his next three games. That was the story for Smith this year. Smith started out slow and almost lost his job to Rudi Johnson early on. After Week Nine, however, he picked up the pace and was a top-10 running back. He averaged 100 yards on 23 touches for 12.9 fantasy points per game from Week 10 on, a stretch that included six 85-yard games and four touchdowns. Smith's 2009 value heavily relies on the Lions' draft strategy. Will they take OT Andre Smith first overall, or Sam Bradford? Will they stock up the offensive line, or work on the defense? As it stands now, Smith is a reliable top-20 back with high upside. From Week Five on, Smith had at least six fantasy points in every game except one, so you know you can trust him week in, week out. Proj. 2009 stats: 214 attempts, 1,082 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 145 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 18-23 RB; Late third-rounder Jonathan Stewart Falls under: 2nd group; 2nd group; 1st group; 2nd group As long as DeAngelo Williams is there, Stewart won't get more than 15 carries a game. Of course, that's not good for his fantasy value. Like Johnson, Stewart's value is based on his touchdown scoring. Stewart's per-game line in the eight games where he didn't score: 8.5 attempts, 34 rushing yards, and five receiving yards. In the other eight games where he did score, he's averaging 14.4 attempts for 71 rushing yards. Stewart doesn't get carries and is only worth a shot if he gets a touchdown, which is 50 percent of the time. He's not a safe bet for next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 169 attempts, 824 total yards, seven touchdowns, 141 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 24-28 RB; Late fourth-rounder Darren McFadden Falls under: 3rd group; 2nd group; 3rd group; 3rd group Injuries caught up with McFadden and ruined his rookie season. He looked spectacular at times (see his Week Two 164-yard performance) and downright ugly at others (one carry for no yards in Week 14). Justin Fargas stole from his opportunities, as he averaged 17 carries in the last eight weeks of the year, which led to McFadden's averaging just seven carries in that time frame. Fargas signed a three-year contract last February, so he won't be gone for another two years, and Michael Bush looked great in the last week of the season with both Fargas and McFadden injured. It's a loaded backfield in Oakland, and only time will tell who will emerge as the No. 1 back. Proj. 2009 stats: 109 attempts, 732 total yards, four touchdowns, 102 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 26-30 RB; Mid-fifth-rounder Rashard Mendenhall Falls under: n/a Although he had no carries in two of his four games, Mendenhall had nine and 10 carries in his other two games and was on his way to becoming a good flex play before suffering a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football. Willie Parker signed a four-year deal in 2006, meaning next year may be his last in Pittsburgh. Owners in dynasty and keeper leagues may want to hold on to Mendenhall in case Parker does in fact leave. Rashard would be a top-20 back if he got the load of the carries in Pittsburgh. Proj stats in 2009: N/A. Mendenhall had less than 60 carries. Where I'd rank him in 2009: No. 28-31 RB; Late-fifth, early-sixth rounder Tim Hightower Falls under: 2nd group; 3rd group; 1st group; 2nd group Hightower started the year with seven touchdowns in his first eight games, including his first career 100-yard game at the end of that stretch. And then he crumbled right before our eyes. He did run the ball nine times a game from Week 10 on—but, on the other hand, gained only 20 yards with those carries. Hightower isn't going to be fantasy relevant at all next year—even 15 carries a game will only result in, what, 45 yards? Proj. 2009 stats: 132 attempts, 638 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 117 fantasy points Where I'd rank him for 2009: No. 30-33 RB; Early-sixth rounder Tashard Choice Falls under: 4th group; 3rd group; 4th group; 4th group Felix Jones Falls under: none; 5th group; 4th group; 5th group So you know how Choice finished the year: 20 touches, 122 total yards, and 15.2 fantasy points per game in his last four, in which he scored two touchdowns. And you know how Jones started the year: six touches, 51 total yards, and 8.7 fantasy points per game in his first five, which includes a zero-rush, zero-catch game in Week Four. But with Marion Barber in the backfield, will either back get enough touches to be worth at least a flex play in standard leagues? Yes—Jones will. The Cowboys should have their first-rounder Jones get the majority of the carries after Barber, with Choice demoted to injury insurance. If Jones gets seven or eight carries a game, he should gain 60 or so yards, as he had more than nine yards per carry in his first five games this year. Proj. 2009 stats for Choice: 97 attempts, 666 total yards, three touchdowns, and 72 fantasy points Proj. 2009 stats for Jones: N/A. Jones didn't reach 60 carries. Where I'd rank Choice for 2009: No. 45-50 RB; Late-10th rounder Where I'd rank Jones for 2009: No. 35-40 RB; Early-ninth rounder
How are 2009 stats projected? I used the data in the table and the player's 2008 stats to try and project their 2009 stats. I'll use Matt Forte as an example. Forte fell under the first group for each stat. He had 315 attempts in 2008. The players in the first group in attempts had their attempts change by 83.3 percent (227 divided by 272 in the table), and 64 percent had their attempts go down. Multiply these two numbers by 315, and you get 168. Then multiply 315 by 36 percent (100 percent minus 64 percent), which is 113. Add the two numbers (113 and 168) and you get 281. We are currently getting e-mail from one guy. We would love if you could up that number significantly. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
Keep going...
| Attempts | |||||
| Range | Att_down? | Att-Yr1 | Att-Yr2 | Correl | |
| 1st group | 207 - 390 | 64.0% | 272 | 227 | 0.220 |
| 2nd group | 143 - 204 | 56.9% | 172 | 148 | 0.135 |
| 3rd group | 112 - 142 | 60.8% | 125 | 118 | 0.173 |
| 4th group | 84 - 111 | 68.8% | 97 | 80 | 0.287 |
| 5th group | 61 - 83 | 44.0% | 73 | 83 | -0.182 |
| Overall | 59.0% | 149 | 132 | 0.587 | |
| Total Yards | |||||
| Range | Yd_down? | Yd-Yr1 | Yd-Yr2 | Correl | |
| 1st group | 1130 - 2212 | 64.7% | 1,440 | 1,124 | 0.452 |
| 2nd group | 763 - 1117 | 63.3% | 919 | 823 | 0.276 |
| 3rd group | 596 - 759 | 50.0% | 670 | 688 | 0.180 |
| 4th group | 447 - 594 | 64.0% | 514 | 446 | 0.025 |
| 5th group | 179 - 446 | 44.9% | 356 | 420 | 0.065 |
| Overall | 57.4% | 784 | 703 | 0.575 | |
| Total Touchdowns | |||||
| Range | TD_down? | TD-Yr1 | TD-Yr2 | Correl | |
| 1st group | 10 - 20 | 75.9% | 13.1 | 8.3 | 0.220 |
| 2nd group | 7 - 9 | 60.5% | 7.7 | 5.7 | 0.102 |
| 3rd group | 4 - 6 | 61.5% | 4.8 | 4.6 | 0.179 |
| 4th group | 1 - 3 | 55.6% | 2.1 | 3.1 | 0.181 |
| Overall | 57.4% | 4.9 | 4.6 | 0.448 | |
| Fantasy Points | |||||
| Range | Pts_down? | Pts-Yr1 | Pts-Yr2 | Correl | |
| 1st group | 154.7 - 341.2 | 72.0% | 204.7 | 157.8 | 0.439 |
| 2nd group | 105.9 - 153.7 | 62.0% | 124.5 | 114.3 | 0.098 |
| 3rd group | 79.3 - 105.5 | 50.0% | 92.9 | 92.1 | 0.111 |
| 4th group | 60.1 - 79.2 | 64.0% | 69.1 | 61.0 | -0.017 |
| 5th group | 22.9 - 59.7 | 42.9% | 47.3 | 62.4 | -0.019 |
| Overall | 58.2% | 108.0 | 97.7 | 0.562 | |
I'll use these data to analyze the crop of 2008 rookie running backs and try and predict how they'll do in 2009. In order of how I'd rank them for 2009... Matt Forte Falls under: 1st group for attempts; 1st group for yards; 1st group for touchdowns; 1st group for fantasy points As the leading rusher and pass catcher for the Bears, Forte had almost 380 touches and more than 1,700 total yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. However, Forte gained only 3.91 yards per carry this year, which is certainly a problem for the Chicago workhorse. That said, he gained 4.19 yards per carry from Week Nine on—when first-round OT Chris Williams returned from injury—compared to his 3.42 average without Williams. Forte was incredibly consistent in 2008: He had only two games end in single-digit fantasy points, and he had a either 75 total yards or a touchdown in every game this year. His lowest amount of touches in a game was 16, twice. Forte fell under the first group for every statistic, and it seems unlikely that he'll follow up his rookie numbers with even better ones next year. Projected 2009 stats (see below): 281 attempts, 1,471 total yards, nine total touchdowns, and 203 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 3 - 6 RB; Mid-first rounder Steve Slaton Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Taking out his first career game and his four-carry game in Week 10 against the Ravens, Slaton averaged over 100 total yards and 15.6 fantasy points per game. He reached 100 yards in nine of those 14 games, and in the five without 100 yards he put up 12.5 fantasy points. Slaton was clearly helped by head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme—which Kubiak learned in his 11 years as Denver Broncos offensive coordinator—although that's not a bad thing. Slaton is in the perfect situation for him: an offense that is made for quick-footed and agile players (Slaton ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at the Combine). Slaton's 4.78 yards per carry show he can make the most of his opportunities, be it 20 carries a game or a timeshare with Ryan Moats (hey, stuff can happen). Slaton gained 100 total yards in six of his last seven games, and his success should carry over to next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 239 attempts, 1,423 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 189 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 11-15 RB; Early- to mid-second rounder Chris Johnson Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Whether it's his first or last carry, Johnson is always a threat to take it 50 yards to the house. But that's the thing—if he doesn't get a score, he doesn't perform at all. In the games in which he scored, Johnson averaged 102 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards, and on 21 touches, that's a 5.95 yards-per-touch average; in the games in which he did not score, he had 59 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards on 18 touches, a 3.89 yards-per-touch average. (Taking out the distances of his touchdown runs and catch, Johnson averaged 99 total yards on 22 touches in games in which he scored, a 4.95 yards-per-touch average.) Which is why I'm not a big fan of Johnson. Predicting touchdowns is hard as is, and even tougher is predicting the distances of his touchdowns—Johnson's touchdown lengths added a whole yard to his YPT average. Proj. 2009 stats: 224 attempts, 1,277 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 174 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 14-18 RB; Mid- to late-second rounder Kevin Smith Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 2nd group; 1st group After carrying the ball only 56 times in the first eight weeks, Smith ran the ball 61 times in his next three games. That was the story for Smith this year. Smith started out slow and almost lost his job to Rudi Johnson early on. After Week Nine, however, he picked up the pace and was a top-10 running back. He averaged 100 yards on 23 touches for 12.9 fantasy points per game from Week 10 on, a stretch that included six 85-yard games and four touchdowns. Smith's 2009 value heavily relies on the Lions' draft strategy. Will they take OT Andre Smith first overall, or Sam Bradford? Will they stock up the offensive line, or work on the defense? As it stands now, Smith is a reliable top-20 back with high upside. From Week Five on, Smith had at least six fantasy points in every game except one, so you know you can trust him week in, week out. Proj. 2009 stats: 214 attempts, 1,082 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 145 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 18-23 RB; Late third-rounder Jonathan Stewart Falls under: 2nd group; 2nd group; 1st group; 2nd group As long as DeAngelo Williams is there, Stewart won't get more than 15 carries a game. Of course, that's not good for his fantasy value. Like Johnson, Stewart's value is based on his touchdown scoring. Stewart's per-game line in the eight games where he didn't score: 8.5 attempts, 34 rushing yards, and five receiving yards. In the other eight games where he did score, he's averaging 14.4 attempts for 71 rushing yards. Stewart doesn't get carries and is only worth a shot if he gets a touchdown, which is 50 percent of the time. He's not a safe bet for next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 169 attempts, 824 total yards, seven touchdowns, 141 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 24-28 RB; Late fourth-rounder Darren McFadden Falls under: 3rd group; 2nd group; 3rd group; 3rd group Injuries caught up with McFadden and ruined his rookie season. He looked spectacular at times (see his Week Two 164-yard performance) and downright ugly at others (one carry for no yards in Week 14). Justin Fargas stole from his opportunities, as he averaged 17 carries in the last eight weeks of the year, which led to McFadden's averaging just seven carries in that time frame. Fargas signed a three-year contract last February, so he won't be gone for another two years, and Michael Bush looked great in the last week of the season with both Fargas and McFadden injured. It's a loaded backfield in Oakland, and only time will tell who will emerge as the No. 1 back. Proj. 2009 stats: 109 attempts, 732 total yards, four touchdowns, 102 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 26-30 RB; Mid-fifth-rounder Rashard Mendenhall Falls under: n/a Although he had no carries in two of his four games, Mendenhall had nine and 10 carries in his other two games and was on his way to becoming a good flex play before suffering a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football. Willie Parker signed a four-year deal in 2006, meaning next year may be his last in Pittsburgh. Owners in dynasty and keeper leagues may want to hold on to Mendenhall in case Parker does in fact leave. Rashard would be a top-20 back if he got the load of the carries in Pittsburgh. Proj stats in 2009: N/A. Mendenhall had less than 60 carries. Where I'd rank him in 2009: No. 28-31 RB; Late-fifth, early-sixth rounder Tim Hightower Falls under: 2nd group; 3rd group; 1st group; 2nd group Hightower started the year with seven touchdowns in his first eight games, including his first career 100-yard game at the end of that stretch. And then he crumbled right before our eyes. He did run the ball nine times a game from Week 10 on—but, on the other hand, gained only 20 yards with those carries. Hightower isn't going to be fantasy relevant at all next year—even 15 carries a game will only result in, what, 45 yards? Proj. 2009 stats: 132 attempts, 638 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 117 fantasy points Where I'd rank him for 2009: No. 30-33 RB; Early-sixth rounder Tashard Choice Falls under: 4th group; 3rd group; 4th group; 4th group Felix Jones Falls under: none; 5th group; 4th group; 5th group So you know how Choice finished the year: 20 touches, 122 total yards, and 15.2 fantasy points per game in his last four, in which he scored two touchdowns. And you know how Jones started the year: six touches, 51 total yards, and 8.7 fantasy points per game in his first five, which includes a zero-rush, zero-catch game in Week Four. But with Marion Barber in the backfield, will either back get enough touches to be worth at least a flex play in standard leagues? Yes—Jones will. The Cowboys should have their first-rounder Jones get the majority of the carries after Barber, with Choice demoted to injury insurance. If Jones gets seven or eight carries a game, he should gain 60 or so yards, as he had more than nine yards per carry in his first five games this year. Proj. 2009 stats for Choice: 97 attempts, 666 total yards, three touchdowns, and 72 fantasy points Proj. 2009 stats for Jones: N/A. Jones didn't reach 60 carries. Where I'd rank Choice for 2009: No. 45-50 RB; Late-10th rounder Where I'd rank Jones for 2009: No. 35-40 RB; Early-ninth rounder
How are 2009 stats projected? I used the data in the table and the player's 2008 stats to try and project their 2009 stats. I'll use Matt Forte as an example. Forte fell under the first group for each stat. He had 315 attempts in 2008. The players in the first group in attempts had their attempts change by 83.3 percent (227 divided by 272 in the table), and 64 percent had their attempts go down. Multiply these two numbers by 315, and you get 168. Then multiply 315 by 36 percent (100 percent minus 64 percent), which is 113. Add the two numbers (113 and 168) and you get 281. We are currently getting e-mail from one guy. We would love if you could up that number significantly. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Quarterback Top 10 Rankings
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Well kinda. Dumb stuff after the leap.
Early Top 10 Rankings For 2009: Quarterbacks
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