Stat Boy Saturday: Predicting Week 17 Rest

The number of articles produced by Fantasy Football Writers With Hair has gradually gone down in the last four weeks. Then I realized it. We're the New York Giants. Think about it: Tosten is Brandon Jacobs, Gage is Plaxico Burress, Alex is Eli Manning, and I am Derrick Ward. Tosten never missed an article or deadline, and he was a No. 1 fantasy writer until he got sick after posting a Donovan McNabb news update on Nov. 24. He recovered the following week, but then missed this week with a hamstring injury (or maybe not); Jacobs was a No. 1 back until he missed a Nov. 23 game against the Cardinals. He recovered and performed nicely in the next two weeks until missing last week with an injury. Gage showed up for the first few weeks of the year, giving his mancrushes weekly (but forgetting about the HAIRY's). Then he had some personal and family business that took up most of his time, and got it resolved to resume his posting duties. Plaxico Burress was a nice No. 2 wideout in the first half of the year. Then he had personal business to deal with (his shooting, obviously), and was suspended for the rest of the year. Although Gage came back from his issues, the comparison still stands. Alex and I are Manning and Ward, respectively, because we can be counted on week after week, as we never miss an article or deadline.

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The Giants are major candidates to rest their starters next week if a simple turn of events occurs. Like us. If teams don't rest their stars next week, then there's no news for us to spin, no pickups to write about, no no-name players to mancrush (yes, it's a verb, too). But how can we tell which teams will sit their starters next week, which is the final week in some or most fantasy leagues? Every team locked into a playoff spot rest their stars, right? I was looking to bust that notion. I looked at every single player who played from 2004-2007 with more than 250 pass attempts, 150 rush attempts, or 50 receptions, and from their game-by-game performances, saw if they sat in Week 17 or did not. In order to reduce bias, I deleted the player's name and team when picking out whether the player rested, so as to not try and pick players on good or bad teams purposefully. If a player had 30 attempts in four straight games, then 12 in Week 17, he was classified as being rested. I came out with 15 rested QBs, 11 running backs, and 10 wide receivers. There were probably more wideouts than that, but because of the overall volatility of wideouts, if was hard to find which ones were rested and which ones just had a bad outing. After spotting the rested players, I looked at their team's wins to see if there was a trend. And there was.

Team Wins of Rested Player

QBs	RBs	WRs
10	10	10
12	12	13
13	10	10
11	14	14
10	10	11
13	12	11
14	13	13
11	10	14
11	13	10
13	9	12
10	13
13
13
13
13
Avg = 12	Avg = 11.5	Avg = 11.8
10+ win %	10+ win %	10+ win %
36.6%	24.4%	22.0%
13+ win %	13+ win %	13+ win %
61.5%	30.8%	23.1%

*Two players on 2005 Colts were rested. The two 14 wins were counted in the average, but only was was counted in the percentages. **10+ win % and 13+ win % represent how many 10-win (or more) and 13-win (or more) teams rested players. There were 41 10-win teams from 2004-2007, and 15 of those rested a QB; 15 divided by 41 is 36.6 percent. What this shows is that you shouldn't worry about running backs or wideouts being rested nearly as much as quarterbacks; even if your RB or WR sits, his attempts or receptions usually aren't that less than their seasonal numbers. Quarterbacks, on the other hand, get much more rest in Week 17 games than backs or wideouts. If you have a QB on a locked playoff team, you should definitely try to find a replacement—more than one-third of the time, the Week 17 attempts of a QB on a playoff team (a 10-win team) are substantially different than their pre-Week 17 numbers. The Giants, Panthers, Titans, Colts, and Steelers all look like they will rest their starters; the Colts already are lokced into the No. 5 seed, and the other four play each other this week and should have their spots locked in after their games. The Cardinals also have locked up a playoff slot and seed; they should rest their stars too. Whether you're in your finals or not, look out for teams resting their stars. We really hope that there is something to write about next week. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Week 16 Mancrushes

Although I hate to link to juggernauts who will never return the favor to web weaklings like us, I don't see how I can post some Mancrushes without mention of Skip Bayless's latest retarded shiz that no one gives a crap about (courtesy of deadspin), this:

That has nothing to do with any point or argument that I'm trying to make, but it makes me feel less self-conscious about this column. Thanks Skip.

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Tosten Burks Kind sir, die. I don't care about what you think your future is for the 2009 season. I could give a crap about how dangerous your team would be in the postseason. And I hate that you and your 17 interceptions made the Pro Bowl over Philip Rivers. But geezus. There's no way I can't love you, Brett Favre, for Week 16. New York's in a three-way tie for their division. There is no margin for error. They'll fight for their life this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Amen. Mike Holmgren's Seattle squad is last in the NFL in passing yards allowed. They are sixth-to-last in touchdowns allowed. Old Bretty Boy should enjoy a nice little game of football this weekend. Zach Fein I don't just have a mancrush on him. No, I absolutely love this guy. I hate myself for not owning Pierre Thomas in any league I am in. In the past five weeks since he started getting the majority of the touches, Thomas is averaging this beastly line: 16 carries for 80 rushing yards, three receptions for 35 yards, and 21 fantasy points; he's had eight touchdowns in those five games. His opponent this week, the Detroit Lions, gives up the most fantasy points to running backs, at 27 per game. The top rusher facing the Lions is averaging a stout 20 touches for 120 yards and 19.3 fantasy points per game; they've scored 17 touchdowns in 14 games this year. Those 19.3 fantasy points are the most that any team allows to top opposing rushers; if the top runner going against the Lions was a player, he would rank second among running backs in rushing yards, tops in rushing touchdowns, and tops in fantasy points (by 2.4 per game!). In short, start Thomas with pride. He's the best option at running back you could have this week. Alex Kozora They say the best things came in small packages. Evidently, the best things can came from fast packages. No, this isn't a FedEx or UPS promo. This is a Greg Jennings promotion. Jennings, the Packers' leading wide receiver, has set career highs in receptions and receiving yards to go along with his eight touchdowns. Jennings and the Pack are set to face a Bears team that's been hit hard by injuries to the secondary, having two cornerbacks—one of which was Nathan Vasher—and a safety on IR. Jennings has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, including a five catch, 64-yards-and-a-score performance against the Bears in Week 11. The man under center for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, has thrown for at least 278 yards and has six touchdowns in the past three games. Hopefully, Greg Jennings will deliver your team a fantasy championship. We just figured out what we're getting all our friends for Christmas. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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The HAIRY's: Week 15 Edition

Gage Arnold stops by to hand out his weekly awards for this past weekend. Momma said knock you out. Well, it seems like TO's gonna knock you out now, especially if you plot against him to take away his passes. Alright stop, collaborate and listen. As long as your name is not Tony Romo or Jason Witten, then Team Obliterator needs a script of what you "discussed." In my honest opinion, Terrell Owens really needs to get some new socks if he wants to truly escape the grips of da-feet. Yeah, that was possibly the worst joke ever. Let's just go on ahead to the Hairy's.

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The Sixth Sense Award (For Biggest Surprise)

And the award goes to ... Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Vikings

Wow, what more can I say. I mean, I know the Cardinals pass defense is bad, but to let Tarvaris Jackson of all people put up four touchdowns! I mean, the Cards bent like a wet newspaper, they lied down like Britney Spears, they crumpled like a leaf. But now I have to give some kudos to Mr. Jackson. I mean while it wasn't the Titans pass defense (which got completely blown up by Andre Johnson), it still was a formidable defense and it garnered him an award. Take a bow, Tarvaris. You actually earned it, for once.

The Last Indiana Jones Movie Whose Name You Can't Remember Because It Sucked So Much (For Biggest Bust)

And the award goes to ... Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins

This was a huge surprise to me. I not only expected the 'Skins to win the game, but to also blow out the Bengals and give it to Clinton for some nice garbage time as he ran for some nice yardage and possibly a score. But no, the 'Skins completely blow the game and Portis gets a horrible 25 carries for 77 yards. He deserves none of my kindness. I had him in one of my leagues and lost by five points because my opposing owner started Tashard Choice this week. It's times like these that psyco killers are made. But don't worry, I'm not like that, at all. On topic, Portis was disappointing, and has all but withdrawn his name for the MVP.

Lord, Del's Cup (Awarded to the Coach who Orchestrated The Biggest Team of Stooges)

And the award goes to ... Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans

How could you Jeff? It's fourth-and-three with 2:00 left on the clock as the Titan trail the Texans 12-13. Jeff Fisher choses to in fact go for it instead of taking his chances with his kicker Rob Bironas, who has hit a field goal from 60. So they in turn threw the incompletion and lost to a 7-7 team. This loss could help—it will keep Tennessee's guard up during the next few weeks, and they will not be able to bench their players or lighten up. Their spot is still on the line for tops in the AFC, but this still was obviously the wrong move, by far.

Paris Hilton Award (For the Player who Screwed the Most Owners Over This Week)

And the award goes to ... Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys

Marion. You are not tough and you obviously cannot keep to your word. I mean, all of this in sarcasm, but Barber still completely shot many people's fantasy playoff hopes in the foot with his two-point dinker this sunday. Why you ask? He was still in pain and truly should not have been active. Don't worry, they don't have tridents and spears in Texas, Marion, just cattle prods.

The Chad John ... Ocho Cin ... Ochocin ... Johnson Award (For Most Overblown Story of the Week)

And the award goes too ... (surprise, surprise) Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys

Do I really need to elaborate? Or collaborate? This is so sad. I mean, right now I'm wiring in signs to Tony Romo on how he could keep the ball away from TO even more. I have absolutely no pity for the Cowboys or their fans. They deserve nothing more, and as long as Jerry Jones runs this show, don't expect him to get off his high-horse anytime soon to put Terrell in his place.

Keep hanging in there guys, the HAIRY's will be back next week, better than ever.

I wonder if Tony Romo would cry for TO.

FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com

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Weekend Recap: Week 15

I have to say "no" to Yes Man. Nothing against Jim Carrey, but I hold a grudge against the producers, unless of course, Carrey is one of the producers. But in the words of the Monday Night Countdown crew, "Come on, man!" Can we at least try to come up with something a little original? Seems to me is all they did was add a little twist to the script of Liar Liar. How original. So creative, big raises all around. Luckily for football and those who play fantasy football, there is always something new.

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- First there was Mark Clayton. Next, Seneca Wallace. Who will be hopping on the "he's a one-week wonder, don't buy into him" train this week? A little hard to fit on bumper sticker, but I digress. Cedric Benson, have a seat. The Redskins came into their game yesterday completely unfocused, and it showed. Badly. Anyone could've ran through that defense. Sure, Benson had 88 yards receiving, but 79 came on one play. Pass. - Matt Ryan continues to find ways to win at home—though I think Michael Turner deserves the credit for this win—but he still isn't a reliable fantasy start at home, as I pointed out in last week's Name Calling article. Two interceptions yesterday furthered my point. - Sticking with the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game, is there a more underrated player in fantasy football than Antonio Bryant? This guy is a near lock to star in one of ESPN's Fantasy Football Hall of Fame commercials. He has 74 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and six touchdowns on the season. As an added bonus, he's been on fire during this crucial playoff weeks, hauling in 20 receptions for 371 yards and four touchdowns in his past three games. Not to get ahead of myself, but he faces two paltry pass defenses in the Chargers and Raiders the next two weeks. Riddle me this (new catch phrase I'm testing out): how is a guy that is ranked 10th out of all wide receivers in points owned in just 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues? - Looking at the other side of the spectrum, Ronnie Brown has begun to fall off the map. He's only hit the 70-yard mark once—this past Sunday—since rushing for over 100 yards against the Raiders Week 11. To add to those woes, he's only hit pay dirt once in that same span. - It seems that the Ravens have settled on a main back. All of you Ravens fans who had money on Willis McGahee or Ray Rice have some explaining to do to the wife. Le'Ron McClain has had 20-plus carries in three straight, and 18 in the game before. Granted, he hasn't been overly productive, but he's the most dependable back right now. Alex forgot to write an end line so we'll just type the e-mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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ADD Attack!

Check it out knuckas, we got a remodel. Layout changes and all that jazz. More details after the leap. (Heck ya, we have a leap now.)

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Just to sum everything up so you know exactly what to complain about in your feedback email. - We added a third column to make your FF With Hair viewing enjoyment 33 percent better. (Stat Boy notes: Actually, it's 50 percent better. Before, there were two columns, now three; three divided by two equals 1.5. Even better!) - The site now has two hues of yummy brown. We wanted to reflect the chaos of the world and depict an escape of color that both shades and details the transition of life and temporary nature of our fantasy football essence. Or something. Just think of it as new giftwrap. - As bragged above, now you have to make one more click in order to read posts. Fun, fun. - There's some other minor differences that I would guarantee you don't even notice. If you can nitpick and find them, hit up the inbox and we'll buy everyone cookies. Yay. As always, yell at us at FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com, tell your friends about this site, and all that other stuff that reveals how needy, desperate, and retarded we are. P.S. This is Tosten. I wrote this. Not Zach. Just making sure that gets out there because I don't want to slap anyone else's reputation in the face other than my own if I don't have to.
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Week 15 Mancrushes

Sorry this is being posted late. I've been playing around all day creating this super cool FFWWH widget. It feeds every single piece of analysis, news update, preview, and spotlighted stat that is ever written by the mega awesome FF With Hair guys who are always available to answer any of your questions. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com. Bam. I just added it to my facebook. Shapow, now it's bookmarked on del.icio.us. And now it's embedded on this here very blog. You can take it anywhere. It's the perfect Christmas present. Actually it's just perfect, period. Kinda like the following group of players for Week 15. Transition jubilation! Tosten Burks Screw you Chargers. I can't believe I'm a fan. I can't believe I own a Tomlinson jersey. I can't believe I read blogs about your franchise. I can't believe you're 5-8. I can't believe a San Diego banker hasn't foreclosed Norv Turner's house in his face. I hate it. Tony Gonzalez loves it. San Diego has been burned by the following list of tight ends this year: Dante Rosario, Tony Scheffler, Dustin Keller, Zach Miller, Mark Campbell, Gonzalez once before, Matt Spaeth, Dallas Clark, Justin Peelle, and Miller another time. Have you even heard of half those guys? The Chargers can't stop tight ends. And this week, starting safety Clinton Hart is out, leaving Steve Gregory to man up Tony Gonzalez. Gregory has only started one game in his entire life. Last week. He'll get plenty of help, but San Diego's been double teaming tight ends all year. Expect huge numbers from Gonzo. Zach Fein What if I told you that the quarterback that has the fourth-most fantasy points in the last four weeks is currently on your waiver wire? And that said quarterback has more fantasy points in that period than Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, and Tony Romo? And that only three have more touchdowns in that period? And that said quarterback has the ninth-most passing yards in that period? Oh, you're interested? Shaun Hill goes against a Miami team that is allowing more than 15 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks since Week Six (if you take out a negative-fantasy-point performance by Marc Bulger two weeks ago). Quarterbacks are averaging 253 yards and a score in that time frame, again without Bulger's game. There's no reason Hill should be on the bench in any league this week, let alone on the waiver wire. Pick him up if he's available and start him for a 20-point week. Alex Kozora

When your star player is unhappy, you know you better reverse that story. Case in point: Clinton Portis, disgruntled about not getting many carries last week, blasted Jim Zorn on the John Thompson show on December 9th. Apparently, everything between Zorn and Portis has been settled, but you know that Zorn and the Redskins coaching staff will make sure to keep their star running back happy. And what a better time to do so than against the lowly Bengals who rank a paltry 23rd in the league against the run. Portis is almost guaranteed points. If Rachel Ray made a fantasy football recipe, these would be the ingredients.

We're techno-hip! FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Week 15 Name Calling

Name Calling is our almost-weekly feature where we help you figure out which name to call for that flex position, #3 wideout spot, or any other lineup conundrum you may be faced with. Our goal is to help you decide on borderline starters by revealing who will hit pay dirt and who will implode. None of this "start Peyton Manning" or "sit Derek Hagan" nonsense. No loving, hating, flaming, or video gaming either. Just a bit of name calling is all. The only thing I hate more than the complete mess that is the Cowboys' locker room, seriously, they're acting more like the cast of The Hills than a football team, is writer's block. To be honest, I have nothing introduction-worthy. My mind is completely empty. Now I know what Jessica Simpson feels like. But you could care less about an introduction. All you need is solid fantasy advice. And my mind isn't blank in that department. Who You Gonna Call Derrick Mason/WR Baltimore: What, have you gone off the deep end, Alex? Do you not realize that Mason is going against the Steelers, the best defense in the league? No, I haven't lost it (yet). And yes, I'm well aware of who he's playing this week. In fact, that's a reason why I'm so high on Mason this week. Dating back to last season, he's averaging just under seven catches per game for 81 yards. The first time these two teams met this year, Mason went off for 137 yards on eight receptions. Mason has clearly been Joe Flacco's favorite target this year, having more than double the receptions of the next Raven (Mason, 65; Mark Clayton, 30). A big rivalry game at home with the playoffs on the line? You can bet Mason and company will be going all out. Jonathan Stewart/RB Carolina: This may be the last time I'll be able to put Smash, er....Stewart on this list. He had a coming-out-party last week on Monday Night Football against a stout Bucs defense, rushing for over 110 yards and two scores in a win over Tampa Bay. Now, he gets to face an easier defense in the Denver Broncos, who have allowed five rushing touchdowns the past three away games. Fantasy success. Chester Taylor/RB Minnesota: Little bit of a forewarning: I'd start him only in deeper leagues or if you're low on options. He hasn't gotten many carries lately, but he's made the most of his opportunities, scoring one touchdown in each of the last three games. Arizona, whom the Vikings face this week, have allowed three rushing touchdowns the past three games. See the trend? Who You Not Gonna Call Matt Ryan/QB Atlanta: Atlanta is at home this week; that's good news for fans, but for Ryan owners, it's nothing to get overjoyed about. Although Ryan is a better quarterback at home, he isn't that great of a fantasy quarterback. He's only thrown five touchdown passes at home in six games, four of those coming against the Lions, Chiefs, and Saints. Even the biggest hater of Tampa Bay would say that the Bucs defense is one of the better in the league. Don't forget how Ryan performed in his first meeting: 13 of 33 for 158 yards, two INTs and no TDs. David Garrard/QB Jacksonville: Riddle me this. What do you get when you combine an interception-prone quarterback and a defense that is near tops in the league in interceptions? A fantasy sit. That's the case with David Garrard this week, who has thrown at least one interception in four straight games. The Packers rank fiftth in the league in interceptions with 19. And though they gave up a ton of yards to Matt Schaub last week, Garrard doesn't have an Andre Johnson. And without Matt Jones, who is serving a three game suspension, his arsenal is even more shallow now. We don't have bounites on other sites. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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