Saturday, December 13

Stat Boy Saturday: Fantasy Points Per Touch Revisited

Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet. This week he sees which players produce the most with the least opportunities. Here's what I don't get: people are saying that Tim Tebow shouldn't even be a finalist for the Heisman trophy because he has less than 2,600 passing yards, which is half of what Graham Harrell had. Okay, except one thing: Tebow attempted exactly 300 less passes than did Harrell. Every Texas Tech quarterback since 2002 has had monster passing stats. That's due to Tech's offensive system and the fact that they throw the ball 75 percent of the time. Prorate Tebow's stats to the 568 attempts that Harrell had, and suddenly Tebow is leading Harrell by 600 in passing yards. It's not about their raw stats, but how they performed with the opportunities they were granted. Through Week 10, Pierre Thomas had on the year 41.2 fantasy points on 48 touches. Per 20 touches, that's 17.2 fantasy points. Then New Orleans started giving him the rock—and from Week 11 on, he produced 22 fantasy points per 20 touches. No one would have predicted his breakout performance, because, after all, he was averaging 4.6 fantasy points per game. It's not about their raw stats, but how they performed with the opportunities they were granted. With the string of injuries to star performers this week, I decided to revisit my early-season article on fantasy points per touch. Which backups that will get the load of carries this week warrant a starting spot on your fantasy roster? I looked at the top-25 quarterbacks, top-30 running backs, and top-40 wide receivers on the year, plus the backups that will be starting or will receive an increase in playing time this week. I ended up adding three quarterbacks and five running backs and wideouts. Note: Touches were defined as attempts plus carries for QBs, attempts plus receptions for running backs, and receptions for wide receivers. Then I multiplied the fantasy points per touch number by an average amount of touches a starter would see—30 attempts/carries for a QB; 20 rushes/catches for RBs; and six catches for wide receivers. Players who should see an increase of playing time have their names in bold.

Name Fan.Pts Pts per 30
Philip Rivers 217.0 16.2
Shaun Hill 96.6 15.2
Tony Romo 178.9 15.0
Aaron Rodgers 236.9 14.7
Matt Schaub 134.4 13.9
Drew Brees 240.1 13.8
Seneca Wallace 71.6 13.7
Kurt Warner 236.6 13.5
Eli Manning 181.0 13.0
Matt Ryan 174.0 12.8
Jay Cutler 226.8 12.7
Tyler Thigpen 151.5 12.7
Donovan McNabb 204.7 12.2
Peyton Manning 200.7 12.2
Chad Pennington 169.9 12.2
Jake Delhomme 148.1 12.1
Trent Edwards 141.8 12.0
Kyle Orton 151.0 12.0
Jeff Garcia 132.5 11.9
Joe Flacco 157.6 11.8
Brett Favre 171.4 11.7
Ben Roethlisberger 155.7 11.6
J.P. Losman 28.7 11.5
Matt Cassel 191.6 11.3
Tarvaris Jackson 29.3 10.7
Jason Campbell 160.1 10.6
Sage Rosenfels 64.9 10.5
David Garrard 171.2 10.3
  • You can read how much I love Shaun Hill in this week's Mancrushes (whenever they get posted).
  • I also like Seneca Wallace this week. He's averaged 16.3 fantasy points in his last four starts, and the St. Louis Rams are in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.
  • If you were thinking of playing J.P. Losman or Tavaris Jackson because the Jets and Cardinals are in the bottom five against QBs in fantasy points allowed ... don't. You deserve to lose if you do.
Running Backs
Name Fan. Pts Pts Per 20
Pierre Thomas 120.0 20.9
DeAngelo Williams 216.2 18.6
Maurice Jones-Drew 178.9 18.6
Brandon Jacobs 175.3 17.5
Kevin Faulk 108.6 17.5
LenDale White 153.0 17.5
Brian Westbrook 193.3 16.5
Jonathan Stewart 119.7 16.3
Thomas Jones 215.7 15.8
Sammy Morris 91.3 15.5
Reggie Bush 115.8 15.4
Tim Hightower 115.9 15.4
Steve Slaton 185.4 15.3
Ronnie Brown 156.9 15.1
Chris Johnson 189.1 14.5
Mewelde Moore 117.1 14.4
Michael Turner 212.0 13.9
Le'Ron McClain 121.0 13.5
Frank Gore 182.5 13.5
Derrick Ward 116.2 13.3
Adrian Peterson 206.2 13.2
Marion Barber 177.6 13.1
Dominic Rhodes 99.5 13.0
Matt Forte 207.6 12.9
Clinton Portis 188.1 12.9
Steven Jackson 126.1 12.7
Marshawn Lynch 165.3 12.6
Kevin Smith 123.2 12.5
LaDainian Tomlinson 173.1 12.1
Ladell Betts 38.0 11.5
Warrick Dunn 106.6 11.3
Willis McGahee 93.3 11.0
Willie Parker 84.1 10.9
Ryan Grant 126.1 9.9
Jamal Lewis 120.4 9.8
  • Derrick Ward is in the middle of the pack in this list. But if you remember how high he was in last week's consistency article, he's a must-start in all formats. He's going to get you 12 fantasy points this week, no doubt about it.
  • Le'Ron McClain and Willis McGahee are both low on this list. That's interesting, because most think that whoever gets the load of the carries in Baltimore performs outstandingly.
  • Dominic Rhodes is a top-12 running back this week. Why? He's averaging 17.9 fantasy points in his last four games where he had over 20 touches, and the top rusher on teams facing the Lions has put up 18.9 fantasy points per game.
  • Clinton Portis might not get all the carries in Washington, but that shouldn't make Ladell Betts be your flex play this week. His yards per carry on the year is only 3.3.
Wide Receivers
Name Fan. Pts Pts per 6
Devery Henderson 84.8 18.2
Justin Gage 77.1 17.8
Calvin Johnson 159.5 17.1
Vincent Jackson 121.1 16.5
Bernard Berrian 112.4 16.4
Terrell Owens 138.8 15.1
Kevin Walter 133.1 14.5
Isaac Bruce 105.3 14.4
Greg Jennings 155.1 14.1
Steve Smith 137.1 13.5
Randy Moss 132.1 13.0
Deion Branch 36.0 12.7
Lee Evans 109.3 12.6
Roddy White 160.9 12.4
Marques Colston 51.4 12.3
Larry Fitzgerald 169.1 12.2
Braylon Edwards 91.5 12.2
Lance Moore 125.4 12.1
Anquan Boldin 166.4 12.0
Michael Jenkins 76.9 11.8
Santonio Holmes 85.6 11.7
Santana Moss 117.6 11.6
Muhsin Muhammad 93.4 11.2
Antonio Bryant 123.7 11.1
Hines Ward 112.1 11.0
Reggie Wayne 121.8 10.9
Amani Toomer 74.5 10.9
Dwayne Bowe 120.7 10.8
Donald Driver 101.3 10.7
Roy Williams 52.9 10.6
Laveranues Coles 98.0 10.5
Marvin Harrison 88.3 10.4
Derrick Mason 111.1 10.3
DeSean Jackson 89.5 10.1
Brandon Marshall 139.3 10.1
Anthony Gonzalez 84.8 10.0
Andre Johnson 150.1 9.8
Jerricho Cotchery 94.2 9.6
Eddie Royal 109.9 9.6
Chad Johnson 74.7 9.0
Steve Breaston 98.0 8.8
Matt Jones 87.0 8.2
Davone Bess 49.3 7.6
T.J. Houshmandzadeh 112.5 7.6
Wes Welker 106.2 6.6
  • I don't like using fantasy points per touch on wide receivers. What will result is that the guys who seem to get a 50-yard catch every other week will rise to the top, and the possession receivers such as Wes Welker will sink to the bottom.
  • Nonetheless, it's still a fine measuring tool of production. Justin Gage is averaging 10.6 fantasy points in his past five games, including 7.7 on the year. However, he's had four or less fantasy points in five of his 10 games played. Start him if you need a high risk/high reward guy.
  • Amani Toomer hasn't been all that great on the year, but in the past three games when Plaxico had no catches or was injured, Toomer's put up 8.7 fantasy points per game. He's a nice flex play this week.
  • I also bolded Davone Bess. Though he's second-to-last, he's caught 20 balls for 245 yards in his last three. He won't get you a touchdown, but if you need 70-80 yards, he's your guy.
I think Tosten and Alex have been having secret meetings, too.

No comments: