Marshawn Lynch gets three-game suspension

For the second year in a row, Marshawn Lynch's legal trouble may have resulted in a drop in his fantasy value. Last year, Lynch was reportedly going to be suspended for his hit-and-run accident last year, but was exonerated after it turned out the victim did not suffer serious injuries.

This year, however, Lynch was actually suspended for three games for pleading guilty to misdemeanor weapon charges.

That said, there's still a chance Lynch's suspension is reduced on appeal; Brandon Marshall's three-game suspension was reduced to one game prior to the 2008 season, and Marshall arguably had a worse criminal record than Lynch.

Lynch had over 1,300 total yards with nine touchdowns in 15 games last year and finished as the No. 15 running back; he would've been No. 21 if he missed three games. Chances are Lynch may only miss one game of the season, and considering he also missed a game last year, there's no reason why his value drop so much.

Lynch had just 251 rush attempts—almost five attempts per game less than in his first season—last year, but his yards per attempt increased by about a fifth of a yard from his rookie season to his sophomore season. You can argue that Lynch will have an increase in carries—with Terrell Owens now with the Bills, team will have to prepare for the passing attack as well as the rush, leaving more opportunities for Buffalo to surprise their opponents; but on the flip side, you can argue his carries will decrease—with Terrell Owens now with the Bills, Buffalo will be passing much more than last year.

Personally, I think Lynch's attempts per game will be more near his 2008 average (16.7 per game) than his 2007 average (21.5 per game).

In his rookie season, Lynch had just 18 receptions for 184 yards, but he had almost 30 more catches and 120 yards last year. Look for Lynch's role in the passing game to decline next year, as Terrell Owens should catch 80 balls, and there's not enough to go around for both of them.

Because of the immense upside and chance of a reduced suspension, Lynch is right around No. 15 in my running back rankings.

In the case that Lynch is out for significant time, Fred Jackson becomes a top-20 back in the games Lynch misses. In Week 17, when Lynch was out due to injury, Jackson stepped in and had 136 yards on 27 carries, more than five yards per carry. And in the previous two games, Jackson had a combined 17 carries for 74 yards, plus nine receptions for 94 yards and a total of two touchdowns. Jackson had double digit fantasy points in each of those final three weeks.

Even if Lynch is suspended just for Week One, Jackson provides a safe flex option week-in, week-out, good for fifty or sixty total yards each week. Worst case scenario, Jackson is a top-35 running back. He's a must-have handcuff for all Lynch owners and a solid No. 3 or 4 running back for all other owners.

We once hit a 74 at Augusta National. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com + Twitter.com/FFWWH

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Combine Winners and Losers

Christmas time for NFL Scouts, the 2009 NFL Combine, took place this past week as it does annually in Indianapolis. Overrated, boring, unimportant--call it what you will, this is a crucial point for NFL prospects trying to prove their worth. As always, there are winners and losers, and this year was no different.

Winners

• Pat White/QB WVU: While there are still concerns about White's transition to the pros, he certainly helped his cause at the Combine this past weekend. As most scouts assumed, White ran the fastest 40 time of all quarterbacks, a very impressive 4.49. That was faster than guys like Malcolm Jenkins and Kenny Britt. White reportedly threw the ball very well in his workout drills. The former WVU star has a good shot to go in the late-second to early-third round.

• Andre Brown/RB NC State: While guys like Chris Wells and Knowshon Moreno failed to impress, Brown stepped up to the plate. A pretty good sized back, coming in at 6'0" 224 pounds, he ran a 4.49 40, fourth-best of all running backs. The fact that he doesn't have a lot of wear and tear can also be viewed as appealing to scouts; Brown has just under 500 carries in his college career. At this point, he should go in round three.

• Darrius Heyward-Bey/WR Maryland: Probably the biggest winner of the event, Bey wowed most when he ran a blistering 40 time, a 4.3 flat. If it were up to me, I'd approach Bey with caution. He has the speed, but his route-running and hands are questionable. In theory, he could go as high as No. 7 to the Raiders--Al Davis loves burners--but a mid-to-late first round grade is more likely.

• Tiquan Underwood/WR Rutgers: Another WR who flashed his speed, Underwood ran a 4.41 40. He continued to show his athleticism by posting a 41'5" vertical and 10'9" in the broad jump, and he ran a 6.62 in the three-cone shuttle. Those results were second, tied for first, and first, respectively.

• Jared Cook/TE South Carolina: Scouting reports anointed him as an athletic receiving tight end, and he only fueled those reports at the Combine. Running a 4.50, extremely fast for a tight end, he also put up a 41-inch vertical and a 10'3" broad jump. Cook is making a strong case for being picked over Brandon Pettigrew.

• Jason Smith/OT Baylor: Athletic enough to play left tackle, he also showed strength by repping 225 pounds 33 times. The fact that Andre Smith's Combine weekend was a total debacle helped Smith as well. He has a legitimate shot to go No. 1 overall.

• Vontae Davis/CB Illinois: It's not so much that he did spectacular, rather, his stock was helped by others doing worse. Don't get me wrong, Davis ran a respectable 40 time (4.49) but his main competitor to be the first corner off the board, Malcolm Jenkins out of OSU, only ran a 4.55 and could be drafted as a safety.

Losers:

• Chris Wells and Knowshown Moreno/RB: Both fell into similar trouble: poor 40 times. Wells ran a 4.59, and even though he is a big back, he was expected to run in the 4.4's. Moreno wasn't expected to run as fast, but turned in a pretty poor time (4.6 flat). They will still be first-round picks, but better times at their Pro Days would be a big help.

• Brandon Pettigrew/TE Oklahoma St: He isn't going to be a huge receiving threat, but a 4.85 40 always hurts for the No. 1 tight end on the board. As mentioned earlier, Jared Cook quickly closed the gap between him.

• Andre Smith/OT Alabama: Arguably the biggest loser, Smith did not even workout, which usually isn't a big deal for a top prospect--provided you tell someone that you're not going to workout and plan to leave. Oops. Smith disappeared Saturday and his whereabouts were unknown for awhile. Smith went home to train with his personal trainer, saying that he was not prepared for the Combine. He had nearly two months to prepare; this certainly doesn't help his work ethic and maturity issues. From a possible top pick, he's more likely to go in the mid-first round.

• Larry English/DE Northern Illinois: His stock was on the rise before the Combine, but he struggled at Indy. Projected to be a 3-4 OLB, he ran a very slow 4.90. That won't cut it at OLB. He also weighed in at 6'2" 255 and only did 24 reps on the bench press, making him a little small and a little weak to stay as a 4-3 DE. English fits the mold of a tweener.

• Clint Sintim/OLB Virginia: I was a big fan of Sintim coming into the Combine. I loved his pass rushing ability (20 total sacks his junior and senior year), and I still do, but a 4.8 40 time isn't going to help his cause. His stock just dipped a round or two.

• Malcolm Jenkins/CB Ohio St.: As I said previously, Jenkins was banking on having to run well at the Combine in order to keep his stock up. Unfourtunately for him, that didn't happen. Jenkins ran a 4.55. Some say he is a potential candidate to play safety in the NFL because of this questionable speed. If that proves to be the case, Jenkins could fall to the late-first round.

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Fred Taylor Released, Let the Maurice Jones-Drew Lovefest Begin

For the first time in his 11 year career, long-time Jacksonville running back Fred Taylor will not be playing for the Jaguars next season due to something other than an injury. After reportedly offering to take a pay cut in order to stay with his long time employers, the 33-year-old Taylor, who was due to make six-million dollars in base salary in 2009, was released Monday and is now a free agent. The news shouldn't come as a surprise in this time of economic recession, which has displayed fairly transparently that sub-par things simply can not survive no matter how cheap or local they are.

However, Taylor has said that he is not at all ready to retire as the Jacksonville organization asked of him, but is "excited" to enter free agency for the first time in his NFL career.

Taylor did have 654 total yards on 159 touches last season and could very conceivably be brought in to help out a team looking for veteran leadership in a backfield that already has an established starting tailback. And a good team doctor.

This news more probably will have a greater impact on the team Taylor is leaving, the Jacksonville Jaguars, which now seems to be fully committed to the small, quick, powerful, and very hyphenated 23-year-old Maurice Jones-Drew. Which basically gives every fantasy football playing human daydream fodder for the rest of the off season.

Now being in a position to shoulder the full load of backfield touches, Jones-Drew, who had 1,389 yards and 14 touchdowns on 259 rushes and receptions in his third NFL season in 2008, will most likely be the sexiest player on 2009 draft boards.

Make sure to watch the Jaguars for any moves they make to bring in a cheaper option at backup RB and the 32,723 coming probations of MoJo's career yards per carry rate over some number defined as a full Jacksonville running back workload.

Florida Times Union

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Super Bowl XLIII Preview: Has It Reached Midnight for Cinderella?

Apparently, only one of us believes so.

And it's not whom you may think.

The 12-7 Arizona Cardinals are seven-point dogs to the 14-4 Pittsburgh Steelers, owners of the No. 1-ranked defense on the year. After two weeks of wait, the teams are 48 hours away from kickoff in Tampa Bay.

Vegas bookies are predicting a final score of 27-20 in favor of the Steelers, based on the spread and over/under. We like the—well, just read on to see our picks.

Jump To...

• Zach Fein

• Tosten Burks

• Gage Arnold

• Alex Kozora

Zach Fein

For Arizona, the key will be to maintain a quick-strike offense. On their first possession, Arizona must play as if they are in a two-minute offense, throwing quick, 10-yard passes (with runs mixed in). The Cardinals must set an up-tempo pace. This will make the Steelers unable to put pressure on Warner, knowing that he’d get the ball off before a blitzer arrives.

They know that the Steelers cannot compete with them on the offensive side of the ball, and Arizona must hope for a shootout—that is their only chance of competing in this game. If it turns into an old-school, time-of-possession battle that is the Steelers’ specialty, Arizona can say goodbye to their Super Bowl chances.

Kurt Warner was the best quarterback when facing the blitz all year (a passer rating of 103.8 on 197 attempts)—if the Steelers go to their blitz-happy ways, Warner will destroy them. Instead, Pittsburgh must drop back into coverage more often than not and be aware of when to and from where to blitz.

One way to take care of this is to let Troy Polamalu take care of the short, middle routes and checkdowns. This way, Polamalu will be near the line on each and every play, so his distance to Warner will not be as much as if he were in his normal position. When he is rushing the passer, Pittsburgh can single-cover Larry Fitzgerald and put another man in the middle or in position to cover the running back.

In this defensive formation, Warner will not have time to throw to Fitzgerald, who is single-covered, and must throw to Anquan Boldin in the middle or Tim Hightower or Edgerrin James in the flat, and each of them will be covered by the man taking over for Polamalu. Using Polamalu as bait for Warner to throw to the flat could provide Pittsburgh with key stops, especially if the Cardinals are faced with third-and-short.

But in my opinion, it won't be enough. Arizona should control the tempo of the game and make the score go into the 30s. The Steelers will not be able to stop Larry Fitzgerald, who will once again gain over 100 yards receiving.

In the end, the final scoreboard will read 31-27, Arizona.

Tosten Burks

To start, let me establish that I don't really have a connection to either team in this game.I have a great uncle who farms alfalfa in Yuma. That's the closest I am to either franchise. I'll be cheering for the 7-0 box and Danica Patrick GoDaddy commercials.

But also the Arizona Cardinals. I like offense. I like underdogs. I like Edgerrin James's mini-comeback mini-story. And hey, Yuma's dry heat is pretty nice on winter nights.

And there's the reason I'm picking Arizona. Because I'm rooting for them. And I don't want to be bummed when the team I like wins because I picked against them on a fantasy football blog. That's just perplexing, paradoxical poop.

I like the Cards, and am going to be cheering for the cards, so I'm picking the Cards. I have no idea what affect Larry Fitzgerald's match up against the Pittsburgh secondary will have on the outcome or an estimate as to the impact of Ben Roethlisberger's injury situation, or how much of a factor Arizona being an underdog yet again will be. But I like Arizona.

For Yuma. Cards win.

Gage Arnold

As the Super Bowl is upon us again this year, let's recap to see how we reached this point. The Steelers faced the top-ranked schedule, and they rose to the challenge and gave NFL fans something to root for—another typical Steelers team: strong defense, smart signal caller, and finally a heavy dose of the running game. That has essentially led the Men of Steel to their route so far.

I really see the Steelers' defense being the MVP of this game. If their top ranked unit can step up in the crunch time and do what they have basically done all year, then I think the Steelers sit completely in the driver's seat. If the defense gets out to a fast start then expect a heavy dose of Willie Parker mixed in with a few Ben Roethlisberger play-action passes across the middle. So essentially, the defense decides the Steelers fate.

Now, as we backtrack, I have to tell you that the NFC West was completely horrid. I mean, Arizona winning with the division with a three-game lead at 9-7? That record along proves how, eh, stunningly awful these teams in their conference were. But this year proved to be the resurgence of Kurt Warner. The "old man" came out firing and finished as a top-five quarterback. Anquan Boldin, as well as Larry Fitzgerald, stepped up their games even more and showed they were the best receiver tandem in the league.

The Cards' defense was not too terribly bad either. They ranked in the middle of the pack in total defense, but many studs stepped up, like rookie Dominique Rodgers Cromartie, Darnell Dockett, and Karlos Dansby. The key here lies in the Cardinals passing game: If they are in fact able to control the airways and score quickly, then I see a huge upset in the making in Tampa on Sunday. If this does happen I would expect to see a heavy dose of Edgerrin James as well. Offense is the key here, folks.

My final verdict: I am going to side with the Pittsburgh Steelers to take home the Super Bowl this season in a 28-13 score. I think the Cardinals will remain in this game early, but I think that the Steelers are just too strong of a defensive unit to be beaten, and I feel that they will control the passing game and force Arizona to win it on the ground, which they have proven they struggle doing. Expect a good game, though, and it should remain fairly even throughout with Pittsburgh taking a long drive for a score in the final minutes to solidify themselves as champions.

Alex Kozora (the Steelers fan)

The gameplans for both teams shouldn't change drastically. Both teams have to treat this like any other game to the best of their abilities—your gameplan and style of play is what got you to this point. Having said that, those of us watching the Super Bowl can expect two totally different gameplans.

Arizona's pass offense is the staple of the team. That won't be any different here. Create as many mismatches as possible, and take what the defense gives you. The Steelers' cornerbacks usually play with a cushion; a lot of slants and crossing routes is the best counter. However, they can't stray from the running game. Balance is key, they can't become one-dimensional against a team like the Steelers. Stay committed; for Arizona, they're not expecting Edge to gain 150 yards. That's just plain unrealistic against the best run defense in the league. The key is to run the ball 25-30 times and make the defense respect the running game, forcing them to cheat up from time to time. When that happens, you can then stretch the field with your all-stars like Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin.

While it was just about attempts for the Cardinals' rushing attack, it's a different case for the Steelers. They want to run the ball a lot, but they also want success. The running game sets up the pass, unlike Arizona, which is the other way around. Willie Parker has to be successful in order for Pittsburgh to win. In regards to the passing game, the key is protecting Ben. Nothings changed in that department. Give him time, and he'll make plays. Granted, that's easier said than done....

Putting my Steelers bias aside the best I can, I'm going with the underdog, Arizona. They've shown a commitment to the running game in the postseason. Thirty-seven percent of the Cardinals' first downs have come from the running game in the postseason, comparing that to just a 24 percent clip in the regular season. Their attempts and yards have gone up too, from 21 carries and 74 yards per game to 33 carries and 111 yards per game in the postseason. I can't see the Steelers being able to slow down that Cardinals' offense; blitzing helps, but the best counter for a blitzing defense is a QB with a quick release. Arizona has that in Kurt Warner. Just look at what a quarterback with a similar throwing style did against the Steelers in the regular season.

One other tidbit of information to leave you with: Pittsburgh has struggled against quality teams that run a 4-3. All of their losses have been handed down by 4-3 teams (the Eagles, Giants, Colts, and Titans). Yeah, you guessed it, 'Zona runs the 4-3.

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We're Still Alive

Yello. I'm just checking in to let you all four of you who would somehow be hitting up the domain of a fantasy football blog in late January know that we weren't sniped down by Bristol undercover cops or anything like that. I still have a pulse. And so do Alex and that Stat Guy. Not sure about Gage though. I don't know if he ever had one. But anyway, we haven't been neglecting this place. I swear. Just click through. I'm working on a diddy about all the coaching changes. That's taken forever because it took like 14 lunar cycles for Tampa Bay to decide that they didn't want to retain John Gruden, and that after around 1,893,247 naps since the end of the regular season, Al Davis still hasn't found any living being who wants to coach for him. [Editor's note: Tom Cable was just hired as head coach of the Raiders.] When all the sideline situations clear up, I assure you I'll drop a big analysis piece on all the changes. Also, Zach's calculator broke or something, so that's been a slight hold up for him and his normal slew of stuff. And I would guess that A-Koz has been busy planning a funeral for Joseph Addai or some crap. Nobody has any guesses as to Mr. Arnold's situation, although he said something about working two jobs (wouldn'tcha know, this site isn't a real profession) and taking intensive classes right now or some crap. Lucky for you, there's also a super secret site something coming soon. It's gonna be so cool. And new. And secret. And super. Smell ya later. (Really.)
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Ed Werder's Wrong Again: T.O.'s Going Nowhere

Terrell Owens is staying in Dallas. ESPN's Ed Werder reported that the Dallas Cowboys would have discussions about whether to drop star receiver T.O. "The big one [Owens] didn't get discussed yet, but I'm sure it will and real hard," said his source, after the Cowboys released Adam "Pacman" Jones. But Drew Rosenhaus, Owens' agent, refuted the speculation in a radio interview. "It's not going to happen. The reason why they got rid of Pacman is because Pacman has terrible off-the-field problems, and the guy just simply can't play anymore. He's just not that good. "Terrell's never had off-the-field problems, and he's been one of the greatest players ever. ... He's not going anywhere." T.O. has had more off-the-field problems than Rosenhaus claims, but he's right about one thing: T.O. is staying in Dallas. Werder's report is wrong on more than one account. As well as reporting that T.O. may be dropped, he said that the reason would be to easier sign star linebacker Demarcus Ware:

But Jerry Jones just last year invested a $12 million signing bonus in Owens, which means there would be salary-cap fallout. In fact, Jerry Jones has suggested that there might be enough damage that the team would find it difficult to sign NFL sack leader DeMarcus Ware to a new contract.

The Dallas Morning News then pointed out that should T.O. be dropped, he would count $680,000 more against the Cowboys' salary cap than if he were kept and paid his 2009 salary of $8.99 million. Fantasy owners, don't panic. ESPN was wrong.
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Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Alex Kozora

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Now, with less Tosten, Zach, and Gage. Saving the best for last. Your name: Alex Kozora But you wish to be referred to as: Alex (how orginal) You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Pinching pennies But we shouldn't hold it against you because: Better to be fiscally tight than loose. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That Chidi Iwuoma signs with a team. Why will this happen/not happen? No one has shown much interest in him yet... Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Haven't given it much thought yet, but I'll go with Josh Morgan. How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? 8th round. Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Matt Hasselbeck. Good value, but injuries are a concern. Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Darren Sproles Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? All depends on where they go, but Shonne Green really impressed me this year. Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Earnest Graham ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Andre Smith ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Chris "Beanie" Wells. Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, the Wildcat will not work for any team until it is used even less sparingly. 2. There is no way I will bail on LT. 3. Maurice Jones-Drew will be this year's Joseph Addai. 4. Brett Favre will be talked about on Sportscenter so much, ESPN will change its name to the Favre Network. 5. If Kerry Collins keeps the starting gig, then Justin Gage doesn't look so bad. 6. There will be still be multiple players who get drafted ahead of Clinton Portis. 7. ... but only 1 player who scores more points among running backs. 8. Matthew Berry will continue to be the "creepy uncle" at family reunions. 9. This is the year that I finally cut down on fantasy football leagues. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year the Packers' trading Favre and starting Rodgers was a great move. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? LT Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Moss Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Tougher than it seems, but I'll go Colston. Little more proven. Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,950 (total); 15 TDs Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,500; 30 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,100; 26 Kurt Warner's starts: 14 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,229; 8; 10 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 825; 8 (Think Greg Jennings from '07) Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: Only Chuck Norris can count that high. Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? How high will I rank Joseph Addai this year? And the answer is? Low. What question are you glad you weren't asked? Thoughts on Big Ben? Sucker! Now you have to answer. No clue. That's why I'm glad I wasn't asked.
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Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Wide Reciver Top 10 Rankings

More nonsensical, dumb, quickie rankings that won't be relevant for months. Wide outs this time. Early Top 10 Rankings for 2009: Wide Receivers As Alex likes to say, these are extremely preliminary, so don't hold me to them. Unless they turn out to be accurate. If they're great, then by all means hold me to them.
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Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Gage Arnold

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Now, with less Tosten and Zach. Your name: Gage Arnold But you wish to be referred to as: Giovanni You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Gap Clothing But we shouldn't hold it against you because: It's some pretty nice stuff. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: For Lane Kiffin to make Tennessee a powerhouse in the SEC again Why will this happen/not happen? It's Tennessee football... Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Pierre Thomas How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? 3rd-4th round-ish Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Marion Barber Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Anquan Boldin, I don't see a repeat from good ol' Kurt Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? Tim Tebow Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Maurice Jones-Drew ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Sam Bradford ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Tim Tebow or Shonn Greene Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, Tim Tebow will throw for at least 2,000 yards in his rookie season. 2. There is no way that the Detroit Lions will not win one game. 3. The Houston Texans will be this year's Atlanta Falcons. 4. Brett Favre will retire, then move to Alabama, decide he doesn't belong, go back to school at Southern Miss and become the Head Football coach, only to resign after the first game and start the next 15 games of the season for the Minnesota Vikings. 5. If Michael Turner gets another 300-carry season then I don't like his fantasy outlook for the future. 6. There will be 6 players who are tight ends and will get drafted before Owen Daniels in fantasy drafts. 7. ... but only 1 player(s) who scores more points among tight ends. 8. Matthew Berry will beg to be let on the FFWWH staff only to be denied and laughed at. Poor Matt Berry. 9. This is the year that Kobe Bryant finally wins a championship without Shaq. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Calvin Johnson's domination of mankind. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Burner Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Calvin Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? DeAngelo Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 2,200; 20 Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 5,156; 37 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,356; 32 Kurt Warner's starts: 10 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,004; 6; 33 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 1,119; 3 Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: 7... teen Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Is Tim Tebow in fact Jesus? And the answer is? He may be as close as you can possibly get. What question are you glad you weren't asked? Why is Tosten Burks such a funny man? Sucker! Now you have to answer. Why, he just wakes up and is like that, must be a gift from God. Thank you Jesus for bestowing Tosten upon us.
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Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Zach Fein

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Now, with less Tosten. Your name: Zach Fein But you wish to be referred to as: Zach You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: Using stats to back your case But we shouldn't hold it against you because: Yeah, fan bias is a lot better. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That my NFL postseason predictions for the 2009 season are exactly correct. Why will this happen/not happen? I picked a Patriots/Seahawks Super Bowl this year. Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Matt Hasselbeck How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? Tenth round or so, as the No. 2 on a rotating-starting-QB team. Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Matt Hasselbeck Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Chris Johnson Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? It won't be one of the two below. But who does everyone think it'll be? Beanie Wells/Knowshon Moreno Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Clinton Portis ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Matthew Stafford, though it should be Andre Smith ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Beanie Wells/Knowshon Moreno (I just had this question...) Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, Tony Romo will be a top-two quarterback for 12 weeks, until December rolls around. 2. There is no way that I will recommend a guy with a so-called "easy"fantasy playoff schedule. 3. Le'Ron McLain will be this year's Ryan Grant. 4. Brett Favre will take the same amount of time it took last year to reach a decision and ultimately retire. 5. If you draft Ben Roethlisberger as your No. 1 QB, then good luck this year. 6. There will be 22 players who are QBs that will be drafted in standard leagues. 7. ... but only 5 players who are among those 22 will finish behind Big Ben, making him the No. 17 QB in 2009. 8. Matthew Berry will never be mentioned on FFWWH with the word "funny" in the same sentence... unless that sentence is, "Matthew Berry is not funny." 9. This is the year that Chris Mortensen finally beats out Adam Schefter or Jay Glazer to a breaking news story that turns out to be correct. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Joe Flacco's playoff run to the Super Bowl. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Peyton. Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Turner Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Moss, I guess, but these guy will be drafted too early anyway Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston. Is this even a real question? Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,525; 9 (that's total yards and total TDs) Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,920; 32 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 4,150; 31 (he misses the first two or three games) Kurt Warner's starts: 15 3/4 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 950; 6; 8 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 860; 7 Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: 12. With the actual name "Ocho Cinco" on his jersey, his R.S. rate will ascend. Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Who's your mancrush of 2009 going to be? And the answer is? Brandon Jacobs What question are you glad you weren't asked? Do you want to answer the second-to-last question on this survey? Sucker! Now you have to answer. Nope.
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Jacking ESPN's Material: 2009 Predictions by Tosten Burks

I'm not gonna sit here and lie to you. Not all that Matthew Berry is associated with is bad. Take Anne Hatheway. Or this blog. Or Crocodile Dundee in Los Angeles. Or the prediction survey that he and the rest of Bristol's resident loser table fantasy guys put out for the new year. The thing that I'm thieving and in which plugging my own answers. Arrest me. Your name: Tosten Burks But you wish to be referred to as: Emmanuel You're a shameless, unabashed fan of: McDonald's french fries But we shouldn't hold it against you because: If you do I will strike you with lightning. Your fondest sports wish for 2009 is: That Brady Hoke will turn San Diego State into an NFL team. Why will this happen/not happen? It's San Diego State. Who is your biggest sleeper pick for 2009? Derrick Ward How high would you reach for that sleeper in a draft? Fourth or fifth round-ish Which player are you buying into but is most likely to disappoint you? Philip Rivers. I'm a Chargers fan. He'll probably turn hobo on me and suck in fantasy and suck in real life and tank every football related squad that is associated with my life. Which player are you not buying into but is most likely to disappoint everyone else? Thomas Jones Who will be the best rookie to emerge in 2009? Michael Crabtree But who does everyone think it'll be? I have no idea. Who will be... ... the first player drafted in fantasy football leagues? Adrian Peterson ... the player everyone will wish they had drafted? Steve Slaton ... the first player drafted in the NFL draft? Sam Bradford ... the first rookie drafted in fantasy football leagues? Beanie Wells Mad Gabs 1. In 2009, stock will go for negative dollars. 2. There is no way that I will not win the lottery. 3. FFWWH will be this year's Google. 4. Brett Favre will move to Utah and marry the 20,984 reporters that make up the main stream media. 5. If you got money and you know it, then take it out your pocket and show it and throw it. 6. There will be 13 players who get drafted before Steve Slaton in fantasy drafts. 7. ... but only 3 players who score more points at the running back position. 8. Matthew Berry will mention this site on his podcast and in an article, make a joke about its title, and give FFWWH 13,847,398,742 page views. And buy a wig. 9. This is the year that Michael Scott finally finds true love. 10. 2009 will forever be remembered as the year of Skip Bayless's firing. The Name Game Tom Brady or Peyton Manning? Manning Michael Turner or LaDainian Tomlinson? Ehh, myeh, fee, fii, fo, ahh, umm, eeeh... Turner. I apologize LT. It's close man. If Darren Sproles signs elsewhere, you got it in the bag. Randy Moss or Calvin Johnson? Johnson Antonio Bryant or Marques Colston? Colston Brandon Jacobs or Marion Barber? Jacobs DeAngelo Williams or Clinton Portis? Portis Playing with Numbers Adrian Peterson's yards and touchdowns: 1,769; 19 Drew Brees's yards and touchdowns: 4,893; 31 Tom Brady's yards and touchdowns: 120; 0 (He pulls a Merriman, comes in Week One to prove he's tough, goes on IR to continue to recover from his injury) Kurt Warner's starts: 15 Braylon Edwards's yards, touchdowns, and drops: 1,138; 7; 12,908 Chad Ocho Cinco's yards and touchdowns: 1241; 8 (all in one game) Chad Ocho Cinco's ridiculous statements: ∞ Speak Now or Forever Hold Your Peace What question do you wish you had been asked on this survey? Why does the title of this post sound like a cologne? "Predictions. By Tosten Burks." And the answer is? I have not a clue in my soul. What question are you glad you weren't asked? I heard there's some big news coming about this site. What is it? Sucker! Now you have to answer. Oh, you trickster. You're gonna have to wait on that one.
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Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Running Back Top 10 Rankings

Yep, it's been confirmed. I have no life. Here's some more rankings. In January. Early Top 10 Rankings for 2009: Running Backs

As Alex likes to say, these are extremely preliminary, so don't hold me to them. Unless they turn out to be accurate. If they're great, then by all means hold me to them.

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Matt Cassel to be Franchised; What About Tom Brady?

It's looking more and more likely that the New England Patriots will put the franchise tag on first-year starter Matt Cassel. The news was first reported by Mike Lombardi, then confirmed by Chris Mortensen. Placing the franchise tag would cost the Patriots $14.835 million, the average salary of the five-highest quarterbacks in the league from the prior season. The Patriots would be paying more than $29 million for two quarterbacks next year; injured backup Tom Brady has a salary of $14.6 million in 2009. With Matt Cassel franchised, the Patriots would have two options: trade him if Brady's knee heals, or keep Cassel should Brady's rehab from injury not go as planned. Teams that could become major factors in the Cassel sweepstakes include two NFC North teams, the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions. The Lions have already announced their intention to take a quarterback at No. 1 in the draft. Minnesota was rumored to be interested in Brett Favre and Donovan McNabb last offseason, and their poor and inconsistent quarterback play for the Vikings this year should not change that stance. In the case that Brady's knee is not fully recovered by Week One, fantasy owners would be best to avoid either New England quarterback for the time being. Both would be top-10 quarterbacks with no competition (with the edge going to Brady), but Brady would likely take over the job midway through the year if he were to recover.
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Hey Rookie, Welcome to the NFL: Evaluating the Performance of Several Rookie RBs

Not too often do the Dennis Quaids of the world prove to be anything more than your first pick's handcuff. 2008 was the year of the rookie running back. Over 10 rookies either started, filled in for their injured predecessor, or split the load of the carries and became fantasy relevant in a year in which many first- and second-round fantasy picks turned out to be busts. In what was called one of the greatest running back drafts ever—even proclaimed so before the draft occurred—three of the five first-round backs missed a total of 22 games this year—yet four other backs chosen in the first three rounds had over 1,000 total yards (three of which rushed for 1,200 yards), and another had 900 yards and 10 touchdowns. Tim Hightower, Tashard Choice, and Ryan Torain—the guy that sat on your bench all year as you hoped and prayed that he would recover and prosper in Denver's Russian-roulette running back slot, which came out to be true for one game until he tore his ACL and gave way for another rookie (Peyton Hillis) to succeed, I might add—all provided fantasy effectiveness for some time or another, in addition to the aforementioned group of 900- and 1,000-yard backs. Recent years such as 2006 provided other great running back draft classes, but not nearly as much as 2008, which had, among many stats, three 1,200-yard rushers (since the 1981 draft class, only two had as many as two such rushers, in 1983 and 2000) and four backs with 10 total touchdowns (only three classes since 1981 had as many as three, and none of those came after 1985). The breakout of these rookie running backs yields a good question: Will they—nay, any of them—keep this up for next year? I went to a statistical approach to answer this question. I looked at every rookie RB since 1981 that had six touches per game and 60 attempts on the year to see how their next year's stats changed from their rookie season. Since there were 249 players that had these requirements, I split them up into five groups based on their stats from their rookie year. (I had the top 50 leaders in attempts in group one, Nos. 51-100 for group two, and so on, and then did this for each stat that I was looking at.) I then found various data—the percent of the group that had their stat decline from their rookie year to the next, the average of the stat in the rookie year and the sophomore year, and the correlation for the stat from the rookie year to the next—to try and see how each group performs the next year. (Methodological note: Not every group had 50 or 49 players; if there was a tie for the last spot in a group, I moved both players to the higher group. There were 51 players in the first group for total yards, for example, because two players tied for 50th place with 1,130 yards.) Here are the results:

Attempts
	Range	Att_down?	Att-Yr1	Att-Yr2	Correl
1st group	207 - 390	64.0%	272	227	0.220
2nd group	143 - 204	56.9%	172	148	0.135
3rd group	112 - 142	60.8%	125	118	0.173
4th group	84 - 111	68.8%	97	80	0.287
5th group	61 - 83	44.0%	73	83	-0.182
Overall		59.0%	149	132	0.587

Total Yards
	Range	Yd_down?	Yd-Yr1	Yd-Yr2	Correl
1st group	1130 - 2212	64.7%	1,440	1,124	0.452
2nd group	763 - 1117	63.3%	919	823	0.276
3rd group	596 - 759	50.0%	670	688	0.180
4th group	447 - 594	64.0%	514	446	0.025
5th group	179 - 446	44.9%	356	420	0.065
Overall		57.4%	784	703	0.575

Total Touchdowns
	Range	TD_down?	TD-Yr1	TD-Yr2	Correl
1st group	10 - 20	75.9%	13.1	8.3	0.220
2nd group	7 - 9	60.5%	7.7	5.7	0.102
3rd group	4 - 6	61.5%	4.8	4.6	0.179
4th group	1 - 3	55.6%	2.1	3.1	0.181
Overall		57.4%	4.9	4.6	0.448

Fantasy Points
	Range	Pts_down?	Pts-Yr1	Pts-Yr2	Correl
1st group	154.7 - 341.2	72.0%	204.7	157.8	0.439
2nd group	105.9 - 153.7	62.0%	124.5	114.3	0.098
3rd group	79.3 - 105.5	50.0%	92.9	92.1	0.111
4th group	60.1 - 79.2	64.0%	69.1	61.0	-0.017
5th group	22.9 - 59.7	42.9%	47.3	62.4	-0.019
Overall		58.2%	108.0	97.7	0.562

Range—The range of the stat in question for each group Att_down?—The percent of players in a group that had their stat decline or stay the same the following year Att-Yr1—The average number of each stat for each group in their rookie year Att_Yr2—The average number of each stat for each group in their sophomore year Correl—The correlation of the rookie year stats and the sophomore year stats. The closer to one, the more dependent the sophomore and rookie stats are with each other, or in order words, the easier to predict that stat in the sophomore year; a negative number means that as the stat increases in the first year, it decreases in the second year. The better a rookie performs in his first year, he is more likely to decline the next year (a phenomenon called regression toward the mean). Generally, the lower the stat of a player in their rookie year, the tougher it is to get a true grasp of how they'll perform the next year.

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I'll use these data to analyze the crop of 2008 rookie running backs and try and predict how they'll do in 2009. In order of how I'd rank them for 2009... Matt Forte Falls under: 1st group for attempts; 1st group for yards; 1st group for touchdowns; 1st group for fantasy points As the leading rusher and pass catcher for the Bears, Forte had almost 380 touches and more than 1,700 total yards to go along with 12 touchdowns. However, Forte gained only 3.91 yards per carry this year, which is certainly a problem for the Chicago workhorse. That said, he gained 4.19 yards per carry from Week Nine on—when first-round OT Chris Williams returned from injury—compared to his 3.42 average without Williams. Forte was incredibly consistent in 2008: He had only two games end in single-digit fantasy points, and he had a either 75 total yards or a touchdown in every game this year. His lowest amount of touches in a game was 16, twice. Forte fell under the first group for every statistic, and it seems unlikely that he'll follow up his rookie numbers with even better ones next year. Projected 2009 stats (see below): 281 attempts, 1,471 total yards, nine total touchdowns, and 203 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 3 - 6 RB; Mid-first rounder Steve Slaton Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Taking out his first career game and his four-carry game in Week 10 against the Ravens, Slaton averaged over 100 total yards and 15.6 fantasy points per game. He reached 100 yards in nine of those 14 games, and in the five without 100 yards he put up 12.5 fantasy points. Slaton was clearly helped by head coach Gary Kubiak's zone-blocking scheme—which Kubiak learned in his 11 years as Denver Broncos offensive coordinator—although that's not a bad thing. Slaton is in the perfect situation for him: an offense that is made for quick-footed and agile players (Slaton ran a 4.4 40-yard dash at the Combine). Slaton's 4.78 yards per carry show he can make the most of his opportunities, be it 20 carries a game or a timeshare with Ryan Moats (hey, stuff can happen). Slaton gained 100 total yards in six of his last seven games, and his success should carry over to next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 239 attempts, 1,423 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 189 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 11-15 RB; Early- to mid-second rounder Chris Johnson Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 1st group; 1st group Whether it's his first or last carry, Johnson is always a threat to take it 50 yards to the house. But that's the thing—if he doesn't get a score, he doesn't perform at all. In the games in which he scored, Johnson averaged 102 rushing yards and 23 receiving yards, and on 21 touches, that's a 5.95 yards-per-touch average; in the games in which he did not score, he had 59 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards on 18 touches, a 3.89 yards-per-touch average. (Taking out the distances of his touchdown runs and catch, Johnson averaged 99 total yards on 22 touches in games in which he scored, a 4.95 yards-per-touch average.) Which is why I'm not a big fan of Johnson. Predicting touchdowns is hard as is, and even tougher is predicting the distances of his touchdowns—Johnson's touchdown lengths added a whole yard to his YPT average. Proj. 2009 stats: 224 attempts, 1,277 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 174 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 14-18 RB; Mid- to late-second rounder Kevin Smith Falls under: 1st group; 1st group; 2nd group; 1st group After carrying the ball only 56 times in the first eight weeks, Smith ran the ball 61 times in his next three games. That was the story for Smith this year. Smith started out slow and almost lost his job to Rudi Johnson early on. After Week Nine, however, he picked up the pace and was a top-10 running back. He averaged 100 yards on 23 touches for 12.9 fantasy points per game from Week 10 on, a stretch that included six 85-yard games and four touchdowns. Smith's 2009 value heavily relies on the Lions' draft strategy. Will they take OT Andre Smith first overall, or Sam Bradford? Will they stock up the offensive line, or work on the defense? As it stands now, Smith is a reliable top-20 back with high upside. From Week Five on, Smith had at least six fantasy points in every game except one, so you know you can trust him week in, week out. Proj. 2009 stats: 214 attempts, 1,082 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 145 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 18-23 RB; Late third-rounder Jonathan Stewart Falls under: 2nd group; 2nd group; 1st group; 2nd group As long as DeAngelo Williams is there, Stewart won't get more than 15 carries a game. Of course, that's not good for his fantasy value. Like Johnson, Stewart's value is based on his touchdown scoring. Stewart's per-game line in the eight games where he didn't score: 8.5 attempts, 34 rushing yards, and five receiving yards. In the other eight games where he did score, he's averaging 14.4 attempts for 71 rushing yards. Stewart doesn't get carries and is only worth a shot if he gets a touchdown, which is 50 percent of the time. He's not a safe bet for next year. Proj. 2009 stats: 169 attempts, 824 total yards, seven touchdowns, 141 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 24-28 RB; Late fourth-rounder Darren McFadden Falls under: 3rd group; 2nd group; 3rd group; 3rd group Injuries caught up with McFadden and ruined his rookie season. He looked spectacular at times (see his Week Two 164-yard performance) and downright ugly at others (one carry for no yards in Week 14). Justin Fargas stole from his opportunities, as he averaged 17 carries in the last eight weeks of the year, which led to McFadden's averaging just seven carries in that time frame. Fargas signed a three-year contract last February, so he won't be gone for another two years, and Michael Bush looked great in the last week of the season with both Fargas and McFadden injured. It's a loaded backfield in Oakland, and only time will tell who will emerge as the No. 1 back. Proj. 2009 stats: 109 attempts, 732 total yards, four touchdowns, 102 fantasy points Where'd I rank him for 2009: No. 26-30 RB; Mid-fifth-rounder Rashard Mendenhall Falls under: n/a Although he had no carries in two of his four games, Mendenhall had nine and 10 carries in his other two games and was on his way to becoming a good flex play before suffering a season-ending injury on Monday Night Football. Willie Parker signed a four-year deal in 2006, meaning next year may be his last in Pittsburgh. Owners in dynasty and keeper leagues may want to hold on to Mendenhall in case Parker does in fact leave. Rashard would be a top-20 back if he got the load of the carries in Pittsburgh. Proj stats in 2009: N/A. Mendenhall had less than 60 carries. Where I'd rank him in 2009: No. 28-31 RB; Late-fifth, early-sixth rounder Tim Hightower Falls under: 2nd group; 3rd group; 1st group; 2nd group Hightower started the year with seven touchdowns in his first eight games, including his first career 100-yard game at the end of that stretch. And then he crumbled right before our eyes. He did run the ball nine times a game from Week 10 on—but, on the other hand, gained only 20 yards with those carries. Hightower isn't going to be fantasy relevant at all next year—even 15 carries a game will only result in, what, 45 yards? Proj. 2009 stats: 132 attempts, 638 total yards, seven touchdowns, and 117 fantasy points Where I'd rank him for 2009: No. 30-33 RB; Early-sixth rounder Tashard Choice Falls under: 4th group; 3rd group; 4th group; 4th group Felix Jones Falls under: none; 5th group; 4th group; 5th group So you know how Choice finished the year: 20 touches, 122 total yards, and 15.2 fantasy points per game in his last four, in which he scored two touchdowns. And you know how Jones started the year: six touches, 51 total yards, and 8.7 fantasy points per game in his first five, which includes a zero-rush, zero-catch game in Week Four. But with Marion Barber in the backfield, will either back get enough touches to be worth at least a flex play in standard leagues? Yes—Jones will. The Cowboys should have their first-rounder Jones get the majority of the carries after Barber, with Choice demoted to injury insurance. If Jones gets seven or eight carries a game, he should gain 60 or so yards, as he had more than nine yards per carry in his first five games this year. Proj. 2009 stats for Choice: 97 attempts, 666 total yards, three touchdowns, and 72 fantasy points Proj. 2009 stats for Jones: N/A. Jones didn't reach 60 carries. Where I'd rank Choice for 2009: No. 45-50 RB; Late-10th rounder Where I'd rank Jones for 2009: No. 35-40 RB; Early-ninth rounder

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How are 2009 stats projected? I used the data in the table and the player's 2008 stats to try and project their 2009 stats. I'll use Matt Forte as an example. Forte fell under the first group for each stat. He had 315 attempts in 2008. The players in the first group in attempts had their attempts change by 83.3 percent (227 divided by 272 in the table), and 64 percent had their attempts go down. Multiply these two numbers by 315, and you get 168. Then multiply 315 by 36 percent (100 percent minus 64 percent), which is 113. Add the two numbers (113 and 168) and you get 281. We are currently getting e-mail from one guy. We would love if you could up that number significantly. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Tosten's Stupid, Absurdly Early Quarterback Top 10 Rankings

Yes, I have a life. ... Well kinda. Dumb stuff after the leap. Early Top 10 Rankings For 2009: Quarterbacks
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