Who you gonna call? Sorry Ghostbusters, but you won't do the trick this week. In most fantasy leagues, Week 16 means one thing: being one game away from fantasy glory. No room for error, and one mistake can mean the difference between first place and the soon-to-be-forgotten runner-up.
No pressure.
Who You Gonna Call
Kevin Walter/WR Houston: He's been flying under the radar this year, but has put up good numbers. Case in point: Walter has a better yards per reception average than superstar Andre Johnson—15.1 for Walter and 13.7 for Johnson—and more touchdowns than Johnson—eight to six in favor of Walter. Granted, Johnson is obviously the superior talent and fantasy play, but he'll be covered by one of, if not the, toughest cornerback in the league in Nnamdi Asomugha. Nnamdi is certainly tough, but the rest of the Raiders' secondary is as tough as a bag of feathers.
Chad Pennington/QB Miami: The best way to predict the future is by looking at the past. Look at what the past two quarterbacks have performed against the Dolphins' opponent this week, the Chiefs.
1. Jay Cutler: 32-40, 286 yards, two TD, one INT
2. Philip Rivers: 34-48, 346 yards, two TD, one INT
That's a combined 66-88 (75% completion percentage) for 632 yards and four touchdowns in the past two weeks. Pennington hasn't put up huge numbers the past couple weeks, but there's no better time for a player to come up big than against a weak pass defense with your team's playoff hopes on the line. Given the Chiefs nearly non-exsistent pass rush, a league-low nine sacks, Pennington should have all day to throw.
DeSean Jackson/WR Philadelphia: No Kevin Curtis. No Hank Baskett and consequently, no complaints from Kendra Wilkinson. That leaves Jackson and Donovan McNabb's right hand man this week in a rivalry game against the slumping Redskins. Ever since Andy Reid benched McNabb, he's turned it around, throwing seven touchdown passes to just one interception and winning the past three games.
Who You Not Gonna Call
Brett Favre/QB Jets: Yes, I'm telling everyone to bench the "savior." Favre has been very Favre-like lately, and that's not always a good thing. The gunsligner has thrown five interceptions to just three touchdowns the past four games. And in the three games New York has played on the West Coast—which is where the Jets will be playing this week—Favre has thrown five interceptions. Yikes.
Tyler Thigpen/QB Kansas City: Nothing against Thigpen, but this Miami defense has been brutal the past three games. They have not, and I repeat have not, allowed a single touchdown in that span. None. Zilch. Nada. The same number of wins the Lions have.
Marion Barber/RB Dallas: Usually a must-start, but the rulebook tends to get pushed aside in fantasy playoffs. Barber is questionable tonight and even if he does play, he won't be his usual self. Tashard Choice is likely to get a good chunk of the carries. Couple that with a stingy Baltimore run defense, and Barber's chances of a productive night are as slim as Jerry Jones wanting his team to fly under the radar.
We believe in Santa.
FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Saturday, December 20
Stat Boy Saturday: Predicting Week 17 Rest
The number of articles produced by Fantasy Football Writers With Hair has gradually gone down in the last four weeks.
Then I realized it. We're the New York Giants.
Think about it: Tosten is Brandon Jacobs, Gage is Plaxico Burress, Alex is Eli Manning, and I am Derrick Ward.
Tosten never missed an article or deadline, and he was a No. 1 fantasy writer until he got sick after posting a Donovan McNabb news update on Nov. 24. He recovered the following week, but then missed this week with a hamstring injury (or maybe not); Jacobs was a No. 1 back until he missed a Nov. 23 game against the Cardinals. He recovered and performed nicely in the next two weeks until missing last week with an injury.
Gage showed up for the first few weeks of the year, giving his mancrushes weekly (but forgetting about the HAIRY's). Then he had some personal and family business that took up most of his time, and got it resolved to resume his posting duties. Plaxico Burress was a nice No. 2 wideout in the first half of the year. Then he had personal business to deal with (his shooting, obviously), and was suspended for the rest of the year. Although Gage came back from his issues, the comparison still stands.
Alex and I are Manning and Ward, respectively, because we can be counted on week after week, as we never miss an article or deadline.
The Giants are major candidates to rest their starters next week if a simple turn of events occurs. Like us. If teams don't rest their stars next week, then there's no news for us to spin, no pickups to write about, no no-name players to mancrush (yes, it's a verb, too). But how can we tell which teams will sit their starters next week, which is the final week in some or most fantasy leagues? Every team locked into a playoff spot rest their stars, right? I was looking to bust that notion. I looked at every single player who played from 2004-2007 with more than 250 pass attempts, 150 rush attempts, or 50 receptions, and from their game-by-game performances, saw if they sat in Week 17 or did not. In order to reduce bias, I deleted the player's name and team when picking out whether the player rested, so as to not try and pick players on good or bad teams purposefully. If a player had 30 attempts in four straight games, then 12 in Week 17, he was classified as being rested. I came out with 15 rested QBs, 11 running backs, and 10 wide receivers. There were probably more wideouts than that, but because of the overall volatility of wideouts, if was hard to find which ones were rested and which ones just had a bad outing. After spotting the rested players, I looked at their team's wins to see if there was a trend. And there was.
*Two players on 2005 Colts were rested. The two 14 wins were counted in the average, but only was was counted in the percentages.
**10+ win % and 13+ win % represent how many 10-win (or more) and 13-win (or more) teams rested players. There were 41 10-win teams from 2004-2007, and 15 of those rested a QB; 15 divided by 41 is 36.6 percent.
What this shows is that you shouldn't worry about running backs or wideouts being rested nearly as much as quarterbacks; even if your RB or WR sits, his attempts or receptions usually aren't that less than their seasonal numbers.
Quarterbacks, on the other hand, get much more rest in Week 17 games than backs or wideouts. If you have a QB on a locked playoff team, you should definitely try to find a replacement—more than one-third of the time, the Week 17 attempts of a QB on a playoff team (a 10-win team) are substantially different than their pre-Week 17 numbers.
The Giants, Panthers, Titans, Colts, and Steelers all look like they will rest their starters; the Colts already are lokced into the No. 5 seed, and the other four play each other this week and should have their spots locked in after their games. The Cardinals also have locked up a playoff slot and seed; they should rest their stars too.
Whether you're in your finals or not, look out for teams resting their stars.
We really hope that there is something to write about next week. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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The Giants are major candidates to rest their starters next week if a simple turn of events occurs. Like us. If teams don't rest their stars next week, then there's no news for us to spin, no pickups to write about, no no-name players to mancrush (yes, it's a verb, too). But how can we tell which teams will sit their starters next week, which is the final week in some or most fantasy leagues? Every team locked into a playoff spot rest their stars, right? I was looking to bust that notion. I looked at every single player who played from 2004-2007 with more than 250 pass attempts, 150 rush attempts, or 50 receptions, and from their game-by-game performances, saw if they sat in Week 17 or did not. In order to reduce bias, I deleted the player's name and team when picking out whether the player rested, so as to not try and pick players on good or bad teams purposefully. If a player had 30 attempts in four straight games, then 12 in Week 17, he was classified as being rested. I came out with 15 rested QBs, 11 running backs, and 10 wide receivers. There were probably more wideouts than that, but because of the overall volatility of wideouts, if was hard to find which ones were rested and which ones just had a bad outing. After spotting the rested players, I looked at their team's wins to see if there was a trend. And there was.
| QBs | RBs | WRs |
| 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 13 | 10 | 10 |
| 11 | 14 | 14 |
| 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 13 | 12 | 11 |
| 14 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | 10 | 14 |
| 11 | 13 | 10 |
| 13 | 9 | 12 |
| 10 | 13 |
|
| 13 |
|
|
| 13 |
|
|
| 13 |
|
|
| 13 |
|
|
| Avg = 12 | Avg = 11.5 | Avg = 11.8 |
|
|
|
| 10+ win % | 10+ win % | 10+ win % |
| 36.6% | 24.4% | 22.0% |
|
|
|
| 13+ win % | 13+ win % | 13+ win % |
| 61.5% | 30.8% | 23.1% |
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Friday, December 19
Week 16 Mancrushes
Although I hate to link to juggernauts who will never return the favor to web weaklings like us, I don't see how I can post some Mancrushes without mention of Skip Bayless's latest retarded shiz that no one gives a crap about (courtesy of deadspin), this:
That has nothing to do with any point or argument that I'm trying to make, but it makes me feel less self-conscious about this column. Thanks Skip.
Tosten Burks Kind sir, die. I don't care about what you think your future is for the 2009 season. I could give a crap about how dangerous your team would be in the postseason. And I hate that you and your 17 interceptions made the Pro Bowl over Philip Rivers. But geezus. There's no way I can't love you, Brett Favre, for Week 16. New York's in a three-way tie for their division. There is no margin for error. They'll fight for their life this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Amen. Mike Holmgren's Seattle squad is last in the NFL in passing yards allowed. They are sixth-to-last in touchdowns allowed. Old Bretty Boy should enjoy a nice little game of football this weekend. Zach Fein I don't just have a mancrush on him. No, I absolutely love this guy. I hate myself for not owning Pierre Thomas in any league I am in. In the past five weeks since he started getting the majority of the touches, Thomas is averaging this beastly line: 16 carries for 80 rushing yards, three receptions for 35 yards, and 21 fantasy points; he's had eight touchdowns in those five games. His opponent this week, the Detroit Lions, gives up the most fantasy points to running backs, at 27 per game. The top rusher facing the Lions is averaging a stout 20 touches for 120 yards and 19.3 fantasy points per game; they've scored 17 touchdowns in 14 games this year. Those 19.3 fantasy points are the most that any team allows to top opposing rushers; if the top runner going against the Lions was a player, he would rank second among running backs in rushing yards, tops in rushing touchdowns, and tops in fantasy points (by 2.4 per game!). In short, start Thomas with pride. He's the best option at running back you could have this week. Alex Kozora They say the best things came in small packages. Evidently, the best things can came from fast packages. No, this isn't a FedEx or UPS promo. This is a Greg Jennings promotion. Jennings, the Packers' leading wide receiver, has set career highs in receptions and receiving yards to go along with his eight touchdowns. Jennings and the Pack are set to face a Bears team that's been hit hard by injuries to the secondary, having two cornerbacks—one of which was Nathan Vasher—and a safety on IR. Jennings has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, including a five catch, 64-yards-and-a-score performance against the Bears in Week 11. The man under center for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, has thrown for at least 278 yards and has six touchdowns in the past three games. Hopefully, Greg Jennings will deliver your team a fantasy championship. We just figured out what we're getting all our friends for Christmas. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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That has nothing to do with any point or argument that I'm trying to make, but it makes me feel less self-conscious about this column. Thanks Skip.Tosten Burks Kind sir, die. I don't care about what you think your future is for the 2009 season. I could give a crap about how dangerous your team would be in the postseason. And I hate that you and your 17 interceptions made the Pro Bowl over Philip Rivers. But geezus. There's no way I can't love you, Brett Favre, for Week 16. New York's in a three-way tie for their division. There is no margin for error. They'll fight for their life this Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. Amen. Mike Holmgren's Seattle squad is last in the NFL in passing yards allowed. They are sixth-to-last in touchdowns allowed. Old Bretty Boy should enjoy a nice little game of football this weekend. Zach Fein I don't just have a mancrush on him. No, I absolutely love this guy. I hate myself for not owning Pierre Thomas in any league I am in. In the past five weeks since he started getting the majority of the touches, Thomas is averaging this beastly line: 16 carries for 80 rushing yards, three receptions for 35 yards, and 21 fantasy points; he's had eight touchdowns in those five games. His opponent this week, the Detroit Lions, gives up the most fantasy points to running backs, at 27 per game. The top rusher facing the Lions is averaging a stout 20 touches for 120 yards and 19.3 fantasy points per game; they've scored 17 touchdowns in 14 games this year. Those 19.3 fantasy points are the most that any team allows to top opposing rushers; if the top runner going against the Lions was a player, he would rank second among running backs in rushing yards, tops in rushing touchdowns, and tops in fantasy points (by 2.4 per game!). In short, start Thomas with pride. He's the best option at running back you could have this week. Alex Kozora They say the best things came in small packages. Evidently, the best things can came from fast packages. No, this isn't a FedEx or UPS promo. This is a Greg Jennings promotion. Jennings, the Packers' leading wide receiver, has set career highs in receptions and receiving yards to go along with his eight touchdowns. Jennings and the Pack are set to face a Bears team that's been hit hard by injuries to the secondary, having two cornerbacks—one of which was Nathan Vasher—and a safety on IR. Jennings has scored a touchdown in four of his last five games, including a five catch, 64-yards-and-a-score performance against the Bears in Week 11. The man under center for Green Bay, Aaron Rodgers, has thrown for at least 278 yards and has six touchdowns in the past three games. Hopefully, Greg Jennings will deliver your team a fantasy championship. We just figured out what we're getting all our friends for Christmas. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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Monday, December 15
The HAIRY's: Week 15 Edition
Gage Arnold stops by to hand out his weekly awards for this past weekend.
Momma said knock you out. Well, it seems like TO's gonna knock you out now, especially if you plot against him to take away his passes.
Alright stop, collaborate and listen. As long as your name is not Tony Romo or Jason Witten, then Team Obliterator needs a script of what you "discussed."
In my honest opinion, Terrell Owens really needs to get some new socks if he wants to truly escape the grips of da-feet. Yeah, that was possibly the worst joke ever. Let's just go on ahead to the Hairy's.
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The Sixth Sense Award (For Biggest Surprise)
And the award goes to ... Tarvaris Jackson, QB, Vikings
Wow, what more can I say. I mean, I know the Cardinals pass defense is bad, but to let Tarvaris Jackson of all people put up four touchdowns! I mean, the Cards bent like a wet newspaper, they lied down like Britney Spears, they crumpled like a leaf. But now I have to give some kudos to Mr. Jackson. I mean while it wasn't the Titans pass defense (which got completely blown up by Andre Johnson), it still was a formidable defense and it garnered him an award. Take a bow, Tarvaris. You actually earned it, for once.
The Last Indiana Jones Movie Whose Name You Can't Remember Because It Sucked So Much (For Biggest Bust)
And the award goes to ... Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins
This was a huge surprise to me. I not only expected the 'Skins to win the game, but to also blow out the Bengals and give it to Clinton for some nice garbage time as he ran for some nice yardage and possibly a score. But no, the 'Skins completely blow the game and Portis gets a horrible 25 carries for 77 yards. He deserves none of my kindness. I had him in one of my leagues and lost by five points because my opposing owner started Tashard Choice this week. It's times like these that psyco killers are made. But don't worry, I'm not like that, at all. On topic, Portis was disappointing, and has all but withdrawn his name for the MVP.
Lord, Del's Cup (Awarded to the Coach who Orchestrated The Biggest Team of Stooges)
And the award goes to ... Jeff Fisher, Tennessee Titans
How could you Jeff? It's fourth-and-three with 2:00 left on the clock as the Titan trail the Texans 12-13. Jeff Fisher choses to in fact go for it instead of taking his chances with his kicker Rob Bironas, who has hit a field goal from 60. So they in turn threw the incompletion and lost to a 7-7 team. This loss could help—it will keep Tennessee's guard up during the next few weeks, and they will not be able to bench their players or lighten up. Their spot is still on the line for tops in the AFC, but this still was obviously the wrong move, by far.
Paris Hilton Award (For the Player who Screwed the Most Owners Over This Week)
And the award goes to ... Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys
Marion. You are not tough and you obviously cannot keep to your word. I mean, all of this in sarcasm, but Barber still completely shot many people's fantasy playoff hopes in the foot with his two-point dinker this sunday. Why you ask? He was still in pain and truly should not have been active. Don't worry, they don't have tridents and spears in Texas, Marion, just cattle prods.
The Chad John ... Ocho Cin ... Ochocin ... Johnson Award (For Most Overblown Story of the Week)
And the award goes too ... (surprise, surprise) Terrell Owens, WR, Cowboys
Do I really need to elaborate? Or collaborate? This is so sad. I mean, right now I'm wiring in signs to Tony Romo on how he could keep the ball away from TO even more. I have absolutely no pity for the Cowboys or their fans. They deserve nothing more, and as long as Jerry Jones runs this show, don't expect him to get off his high-horse anytime soon to put Terrell in his place.
Keep hanging in there guys, the HAIRY's will be back next week, better than ever.
I wonder if Tony Romo would cry for TO.
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Weekend Recap: Week 15
I have to say "no" to Yes Man.
Nothing against Jim Carrey, but I hold a grudge against the producers, unless of course, Carrey is one of the producers. But in the words of the Monday Night Countdown crew, "Come on, man!" Can we at least try to come up with something a little original?
Seems to me is all they did was add a little twist to the script of Liar Liar. How original. So creative, big raises all around.
Luckily for football and those who play fantasy football, there is always something new.
- First there was Mark Clayton. Next, Seneca Wallace. Who will be hopping on the "he's a one-week wonder, don't buy into him" train this week? A little hard to fit on bumper sticker, but I digress. Cedric Benson, have a seat. The Redskins came into their game yesterday completely unfocused, and it showed. Badly. Anyone could've ran through that defense. Sure, Benson had 88 yards receiving, but 79 came on one play. Pass. - Matt Ryan continues to find ways to win at home—though I think Michael Turner deserves the credit for this win—but he still isn't a reliable fantasy start at home, as I pointed out in last week's Name Calling article. Two interceptions yesterday furthered my point. - Sticking with the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game, is there a more underrated player in fantasy football than Antonio Bryant? This guy is a near lock to star in one of ESPN's Fantasy Football Hall of Fame commercials. He has 74 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and six touchdowns on the season. As an added bonus, he's been on fire during this crucial playoff weeks, hauling in 20 receptions for 371 yards and four touchdowns in his past three games. Not to get ahead of myself, but he faces two paltry pass defenses in the Chargers and Raiders the next two weeks. Riddle me this (new catch phrase I'm testing out): how is a guy that is ranked 10th out of all wide receivers in points owned in just 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues? - Looking at the other side of the spectrum, Ronnie Brown has begun to fall off the map. He's only hit the 70-yard mark once—this past Sunday—since rushing for over 100 yards against the Raiders Week 11. To add to those woes, he's only hit pay dirt once in that same span. - It seems that the Ravens have settled on a main back. All of you Ravens fans who had money on Willis McGahee or Ray Rice have some explaining to do to the wife. Le'Ron McClain has had 20-plus carries in three straight, and 18 in the game before. Granted, he hasn't been overly productive, but he's the most dependable back right now. Alex forgot to write an end line so we'll just type the e-mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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- First there was Mark Clayton. Next, Seneca Wallace. Who will be hopping on the "he's a one-week wonder, don't buy into him" train this week? A little hard to fit on bumper sticker, but I digress. Cedric Benson, have a seat. The Redskins came into their game yesterday completely unfocused, and it showed. Badly. Anyone could've ran through that defense. Sure, Benson had 88 yards receiving, but 79 came on one play. Pass. - Matt Ryan continues to find ways to win at home—though I think Michael Turner deserves the credit for this win—but he still isn't a reliable fantasy start at home, as I pointed out in last week's Name Calling article. Two interceptions yesterday furthered my point. - Sticking with the Tampa Bay/Atlanta game, is there a more underrated player in fantasy football than Antonio Bryant? This guy is a near lock to star in one of ESPN's Fantasy Football Hall of Fame commercials. He has 74 receptions, over 1,000 yards, and six touchdowns on the season. As an added bonus, he's been on fire during this crucial playoff weeks, hauling in 20 receptions for 371 yards and four touchdowns in his past three games. Not to get ahead of myself, but he faces two paltry pass defenses in the Chargers and Raiders the next two weeks. Riddle me this (new catch phrase I'm testing out): how is a guy that is ranked 10th out of all wide receivers in points owned in just 90 percent of ESPN.com leagues? - Looking at the other side of the spectrum, Ronnie Brown has begun to fall off the map. He's only hit the 70-yard mark once—this past Sunday—since rushing for over 100 yards against the Raiders Week 11. To add to those woes, he's only hit pay dirt once in that same span. - It seems that the Ravens have settled on a main back. All of you Ravens fans who had money on Willis McGahee or Ray Rice have some explaining to do to the wife. Le'Ron McClain has had 20-plus carries in three straight, and 18 in the game before. Granted, he hasn't been overly productive, but he's the most dependable back right now. Alex forgot to write an end line so we'll just type the e-mail. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com
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