Here at FF Writers With Hair, we have a new member on staff; a member who does what he does better than anyone in the business. What does he do? He's our honorary nerd. Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for you fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet.
This Saturday, the stat boy has devised some fancy rating gizmo to help all you late drafters out there with some tips drawn from what the calculator spit out. Check out the links for brain hurting analysis of how the ratings work.
A few days ago (
ed note: this is what this dude does in his free time) I devised a group of ratings systems to
rank each position (sorry—no kickers) as well as
every team’s offense and defense as a whole. Both ranking sets were based on averages (per each attempt, carry, or reception; and each play from scrimmage, respectively), so players like Maurice Jones-Drew and Marion Barber III were ahead of LaDainian Tomlinson, and Donald Lee and Nate Burleson were ahead of Torry Holt and Chad Johnson.
Here are a couple of notes from each of the positions:
The Quarterbacks
- If you were to wait on a quarterback for your fantasy team this year, pairing up a safe option like David Garrard with a high-risk, high-reward player (McNabb, Schaub, Bulger, etc.) might even be a better choice than taking a Palmer/Big Ben/Anderson type in rounds five or six, considering you can take both the risky and safe quarterbacks five rounds later.
- Derek Anderson is not worth a fourth- or fifth-round pick, where he is currently going in drafts. If you look at last year, he had only 24 touchdowns and 18 interceptions in 15 games if you exclude the one game against Cincinnati where almost every player had outrageous stats. And in his final seven games last year, Anderson averaged only 222 yards per game, with nine touchdowns and ten interceptions. Kurt Warner, for instance, had 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in his final eight games last year.
- According to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen, Kurt Warner will be named the starter in Arizona.
- Jeff Garcia is an underrated fantasy quarterback, in that you know he will put up 12 points in any one week, but he’s still not a top-15 fantasy QB.
The Running Backs
- If Adrian Peterson tore his ACL, Chester Taylor would be a top-15 running back. And if Chester Taylor tore his ACL, Peterson might be the No. 1 overall pick.
- If Kenny Watson were the only back in Cincinnati, he’d be a top-20 running back. And so would Kevin Jones, if he could stay healthy and were the only back in Chicago.
- If Maurice Morris were the only running back in Seattle, he’d be a top-25 running back. See, I can do this forever.
- Maurice Jones-Drew will be a top-seven running back once he ever gets 200 carries. Mark it down.
- Despite Edgerrin James’ low ranking, I still think he is a top-20 running back this year. Hey, he finished in the top-10 last year.
The Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
- With Bobby Engram and Deion Branch out for the first couple of games this year, Nate Burleson will finish in the top 20 wide receivers this year.
- If you extrapolate his final eight games to a full season, Justin Gage would have finished as the No. 25 wide receiver last year. I like him as a sleeper this year.
- Donald Lee could be a good value pick in the 13th or 14th round this year, what with Aaron Rodgers at the helm—and we all know young and inexperienced quarterbacks like to throw to their tight end.
Keep going...
I've been saying for a while that Chris Perry is the guy to have in Cincy regardless of what happened to Rudi, and now that Johnson has been cut that has never been more true. They're saying that Perry and Watson will be in a timeshare, but Chris Perry is the young, former first round pick who fits the mold of running back that Marvin Lewis loves, a strong, powerful, downhill guy. Perry's been starting in the preseason anyway. He'll be the every game starter, and I think can be counted on for 15-20 touches a game. Watson will get most of the receptions and most likely play on passing downs, but Perry definitely deserves to be snagged in the middle rounds of your last-weekend-before drafts.
st) n. A player who performs at a level that is equal to that of a player taken at least two rounds lower. So let me get myself straight, I don't think Fitz will put up 300 and 2. There's a lot of different busts every year, some are minor, some are major. Larry Fitzgerald will be a minor bust.
Let us take a look a look at some facts.
Fact #1 - Larry Fitzgerald had 3 of his 5 best receiving performances in weeks that Anquan Boldin did not play in due to injury.
Fact #2 - Anquan Boldin is not injured anymore.
Fact #3 - Anquan Boldin only had on less touchdown than Larry Fitzgerald last season. In 4 less games.
Fact #4 - Seven of Fitzgerald's 10 TD's came in a total of 5 games agaist the Rams, Lions, Bengals, and Saints. That's 4 of the worst pass defenses in the league. All Fitz does is pick on bad teams.
Fact #5 - The Cardinals don't play the Lions, or the Bengals, or the Saints this year.
Fact #6 - Fitzgerald will be drafted in the second or third round of your fantasy drafts.
Fact #7 - Fitzgerald will put up numbers of a fith or sixth rounder.
