Another week with our honorary stat boy, Zach Fein of Fein Sports. A contributor with as much stat muscle as anyone in the business. You may not understand what he's says and use it for your fantasy leagues, but if you're in the mood to be baffled and confused, then boy does he have you covered. Because life is one big spreadsheet.
This week he looks at the percentage of a team's plays that go to specific players.
We fantasy footballers know the difference of real football and, well, fake football.
NFL analysts think of the best players as those who do the most with the least opportunities, such as Marion Barber, prior to this year. But in fantasy, it's about which players do the most, period.
In other sports, too, this holds up well. In basketball, for example, some analysts look at a player's stats prorated to a certain amount of minutes per game (usually 48 minutes). However, all that matters in fantasy is the stats a player puts up in his playing time—no matter if he gets 20 or 40 minutes per game.
Likewise, the same goes for fantasy football. Yes, Jerious Norwood has a 6.3 YPC, but he's only had 45 carries on the year. Ryan Grant has just a 3.4 YPC, but has 137 carries on the year. Norwood has done more with less, but Grant has done less with a whole lot more.
Following this idea, I looked at the percentage of a team's plays is directed at a certain player. (By directed I mean attempts plus rushes plus sacks for quarterbacks; and rushes plus targets for running backs and wide receivers.) I first found each of those stats on a per-game basis, so a player like Anquan Boldin doesn't get punished for missing time and gets counted with zero plays in games in which he didn't play; then I divided a player's "plays" per game by his team's plays per game.
Here are the results, using the starting QBs for each team; the top-50 backs in plays per game; and the top-60 wideouts in plays per game, substituting Marques Colston (outside top 60) for Nate Burleson (out for the year):
Quarterbacks | Name | Team | Play/G | %Plays |
| Peyton Manning | IND | 40.7 | 67.2% |
| David Garrard | JAC | 40.0 | 63.3% |
| Jay Cutler | DEN | 39.9 | 63.1% |
| Matt Schaub | HOU | 40.7 | 62.7% |
| Kurt Warner | ARI | 40.9 | 62.6% |
| Donovan McNabb | PHI | 39.1 | 62.6% |
| Drew Brees | NO | 40.3 | 62.3% |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | SF | 35.0 | 61.6% |
| Aaron Rodgers | GNB | 37.7 | 61.1% |
| Brett Favre | NYJ | 37.4 | 60.6% |
| Derek Anderson | CLE | 34.3 | 59.9% |
| Gus Frerotte | MIN | 40.0 | 59.7% |
| Tony Romo | DAL | 36.3 | 59.3% |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | CIN | 34.6 | 57.8% |
| Philip Rivers | SD | 31.6 | 57.5% |
| Marc Bulger | STL | 32.5 | 57.4% |
| Dan Orlovsky | DET | 31.0 | 57.4% |
| Kyle Orton | CHI | 36.4 | 56.2% |
| Matt Cassel | NE | 36.6 | 55.9% |
| Matt Hasselbeck | SEA | 32.3 | 55.8% |
| Chad Pennington | MIA | 32.1 | 54.1% |
| Matt Ryan | ATL | 33.4 | 54.0% |
| Eli Manning | NYG | 34.1 | 53.6% |
| Ben Roethlisberger | PIT | 31.1 | 53.0% |
| JaMarcus Russell | OAK | 32.0 | 52.8% |
| Jason Campbell | WAS | 33.8 | 52.4% |
| Trent Edwards | BUF | 31.0 | 51.8% |
| Jake Delhomme | CAR | 31.5 | 51.5% |
| Jeff Garcia | TAM | 34.2 | 50.9% |
| Kerry Collins | TEN | 31.0 | 50.3% |
| Tyler Thigpen | KAN | 30.0 | 49.4% |
| Joe Flacco | BAL | 32.4 | 48.7% |
- Look at the bottom of the list, from Matt Ryan down. One thing in common for all of them (except Tyler Thigpen)? They have a very nice running back or two. Now, I wouldn't worry too much about Trent Edwards being so low—his game in which he went out with a concussion was included—but I am worrying about Big Ben. He has over 200 yards in just two games and over 30 attempts in just one. In his past five games, he's averaging just over 11 fantasy points per game. Sell high (that's not even the right word...) if you can.
- J.T. O'Sullivan is eighth. He was benched. And now Shaun Hill is their quarterback—get him if you can.
- It's too late to get Matt Schaub, who is averaging 23 fantasy points in his last three games, but I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes as a top-five QB on a per-game basis (only because he missed the Indianapolis game).
- The top two quarterbacks on this list are 10th and 11th, respectively, in fantasy points. That said, Peyton has 16 fantasy points per game and Garrard has almost 20 in their last four games.
Running Backs | Name | Team | Play/G | %Plays |
| Steven Jackson | STL | 25.7 | 45.4% |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | SD | 22.9 | 41.6% |
| Matt Forte | CHI | 25.9 | 39.9% |
| Frank Gore | SF | 22.6 | 39.2% |
| Marion Barber | DAL | 23.9 | 39.0% |
| Clinton Portis | WAS | 24.9 | 38.6% |
| Willie Parker | PIT | 22.3 | 38.0% |
| Adrian Peterson | MIN | 24.7 | 36.9% |
| Marshawn Lynch | BUF | 21.9 | 36.5% |
| Jamal Lewis | CLE | 20.7 | 36.2% |
| Michael Turner | ATL | 21.4 | 34.6% |
| Chris Johnson | TEN | 21.3 | 34.6% |
| Ryan Grant | GB | 20.3 | 32.9% |
| Larry Johnson | KC | 19.8 | 32.6% |
| Thomas Jones | NYJ | 19.9 | 32.2% |
| Brian Westbrook | PHI | 19.8 | 31.6% |
| Reggie Bush | NO | 20.4 | 31.6% |
| Julius Jones | SEA | 17.3 | 30.4% |
| Willis McGahee | BAL | 19.2 | 28.8% |
| Steve Slaton | HOU | 18.1 | 28.0% |
| DeAngelo Williams | CAR | 17.0 | 27.8% |
| Brandon Jacobs | NYG | 17.7 | 27.8% |
| Justin Fargas | OAK | 16.6 | 27.4% |
| Ronnie Brown | MIA | 16.3 | 27.4% |
| Edgerrin James | ARI | 17.4 | 26.7% |
| Earnest Graham | TB | 17.4 | 25.9% |
| Chris Perry | CIN | 15.4 | 25.7% |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | JAC | 14.9 | 23.5% |
| Dominic Rhodes | IND | 14.1 | 23.3% |
| Joseph Addai | IND | 14.0 | 23.1% |
| Warrick Dunn | TB | 15.1 | 22.5% |
| LenDale White | TEN | 13.6 | 22.0% |
| Darren McFadden | OAK | 13.3 | 22.0% |
| Sammy Morris | NE | 14.2 | 21.7% |
| Kevin Smith | DET | 11.6 | 21.4% |
| Jonathan Stewart | CAR | 13.0 | 21.3% |
| Fred Taylor | JAC | 13.4 | 21.3% |
| Ricky Williams | MIA | 12.4 | 20.9% |
| Le'Ron McClain | BAL | 13.9 | 20.8% |
| Mewelde Moore | PIT | 12.0 | 20.4% |
| Deuce McAllister | NO | 13.0 | 20.1% |
| Cedric Benson | CIN | 11.5 | 19.2% |
| Derrick Ward | NYG | 11.7 | 18.4% |
| Michael Pittman | DEN | 11.4 | 18.1% |
| Correll Buckhalter | PHI | 10.9 | 17.4% |
| Ahman Green | HOU | 11.2 | 17.3% |
| Selvin Young | DEN | 10.8 | 17.1% |
| Jerious Norwood | ATL | 10.1 | 16.4% |
| Tim Hightower | ARI | 10.3 | 15.8% |
| Kevin Faulk | NE | 10.2 | 15.5% |
- There's less change at the top in this list than for the QBs. The only concern I can think of with the top is that the Bears may be overusing Matt Forte, a la Cadillac Williams.
- The other name that sticks out is Willie Parker. If you can get him while he's injured and just getting back into the groove, do it. It'll pay off when he gets 25 touches a game when he's healthy.
- The highest player in a timeshare is Chris Johnson at No. 12, followed by Julius Jones and Willis McGahee at No. 18 and 19, respectively. Interestingly, LenDale White is only at No. 32 despite his very high fantasy value.
Wide Receivers | Name | Team | Play/G | %Plays |
| Brandon Marshall | DEN | 13.5 | 21.4% |
| Andre Johnson | HOU | 11.9 | 18.3% |
| Dwayne Bowe | KC | 10.6 | 17.4% |
| Roddy White | ATL | 10.4 | 16.9% |
| Steve Smith | CAR | 10.0 | 16.4% |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | CIN | 9.6 | 16.1% |
| Reggie Wayne | IND | 9.3 | 15.3% |
| Calvin Johnson | DET | 8.1 | 15.1% |
| Eddie Royal | DEN | 9.5 | 15.0% |
| Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 9.7 | 14.9% |
| Wes Welker | NE | 9.7 | 14.8% |
| Anquan Boldin | ARI | 9.6 | 14.7% |
| DeSean Jackson | PHI | 8.9 | 14.6% |
| Matt Jones | JAC | 9.1 | 14.5% |
| Terrell Owens | DAL | 8.5 | 13.9% |
| Braylon Edwards | CLE | 7.9 | 13.7% |
| Laveranues Coles | NYJ | 8.3 | 13.4% |
| Plaxico Burress | NYG | 8.3 | 13.1% |
| Santana Moss | WAS | 8.4 | 13.0% |
| Greg Jennings | GB | 8.0 | 13.0% |
| Hines Ward | PIT | 7.6 | 12.9% |
| Greg Camarillo | MIA | 7.6 | 12.7% |
| Muhsin Muhammad | CAR | 7.8 | 12.7% |
| Jerricho Cotchery | NYJ | 7.7 | 12.5% |
| Bobby Engram | SEA | 7.0 | 12.3% |
| Lee Evans | BUF | 7.3 | 12.2% |
| Vincent Jackson | SD | 6.6 | 12.0% |
| Santonio Holmes | PIT | 7.0 | 11.9% |
| Chad Johnson | CIN | 7.1 | 11.9% |
| Torry Holt | STL | 6.7 | 11.9% |
| Steve Breaston | ARI | 7.7 | 11.8% |
| Marvin Harrison | IND | 7.1 | 11.8% |
| Antonio Bryant | TB | 7.9 | 11.7% |
| Bernard Berrian | MIN | 7.9 | 11.7% |
| Roy Williams | DAL | 6.3 | 11.6%* |
| Randy Moss | NE | 7.6 | 11.6% |
| Joey Galloway | TB | 7.7 | 11.4% |
| Derrick Mason | BAL | 7.6 | 11.4% |
| Justin Gage | TEN | 6.8 | 11.0% |
| Donnie Avery | STL | 6.2 | 10.9% |
| Lance Moore | NO | 6.9 | 10.6% |
| Reggie Brown | PHI | 6.3 | 10.5% |
| Chris Chambers | SD | 5.7 | 10.3% |
| Donald Driver | GB | 6.3 | 10.2% |
| Kevin Walter | HOU | 6.6 | 10.1% |
| Bobby Wade | MIN | 6.7 | 10.0% |
| Anthony Gonzalez | IND | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| Kevin Curtis | PHI | 6.0 | 9.9% |
| Ted Ginn Jr. | MIA | 5.9 | 9.9% |
| Brandon Lloyd | CHI | 6.3 | 9.6% |
| Isaac Bruce | SF | 5.5 | 9.5% |
| Antwaan Randle El | WAS | 6.1 | 9.5% |
| Brandon Stokley | DEN | 6.0 | 9.5% |
| Donte' Stallworth | CLE | 5.3 | 9.3% |
| Arnaz Battle | SF | 5.4 | 9.3% |
| Justin McCareins | TEN | 5.7 | 9.2% |
| Amani Toomer | NYG | 5.9 | 9.2% |
| Patrick Crayton | DAL | 5.4 | 8.8% |
| Steve Smith | NYG | 5.4 | 8.5% |
| Marques Colston | NO | 4.3 | 6.7% |
*Roy Williams' play% calculated using Detroit's plays per game.
- I also noted this in my closer look at WR targets, but it needs to be repeated: Roddy White, Dwayne Bowe, Brandon Marshall, and Eddie Royal are hugely involved in their respective offenses when they play. Bowe and Royal, with their low fantasy values, are great buy lows.
- It's a shame that Matt Jones is about the be suspended—he was starting to evolve into a nice fantasy starter. I still think he's a top-25 wideout until he's suspended, however.
- Need a deep sleeper at WR? Check out Greg Camarillo. He's averaging only seven points per game in his past five games, but his schedule is a breeze from here on out.
- Steve Breaston had nine catches for 90 yards last week despite Boldin's being back; in his past four weeks he's averaging eight catches for 100 yards.
Just ask your questions, please. FFWritersWithHair@gmail.com.
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